Week 1: 12-4
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 9-6
Week 7: 6-7
Week 8: 12-4 Spread 11-2-3
Week 9: 11-3 Spread 9-5-0
Week 10: 8-6  Spread 9-4-1
Week 11: 11-3 Spread 7-6-1

Packers 4-6 @ Lions 8-2 DET-7.5
A week made a difference here. Detroit needed a Chicago collapse in the 4^th quarter after 3 turnovers to pull over a Bears win. The Pack surprise the Chargers behind 300 yards from Love and a late TD drive. Pack still can’t run the ball and the defense wasn’t good against the banged up Chargers. I think Detroit can run over the Pack and get stops to win. They might even sneak in the cover.
Pick: Lions cover

Commanders 4-7 @ Cowboys 7-3 DAL-11
Cowboys exploded again against the lowly Panthers last week. Sam Howell had 3 turnovers against the Giants in a blowout ugly loss.
Pick: Cowboys cover

49ers 7-3 @ Seahawks 6-4 SF-7
Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker were hurt Sunday and that makes it unlikely they’ll go in a quick turnaround on Thanksgiving. Drew Lock has experience of course, but the 49ers look rejuvenated after the bye and really just crushed Tampa on Sunday. The offense struggled to run, had too many penalties, and gave up too many sacks, but TB’s defense is good. SF on the other hand had 4 sacks, 11 TFL, 8 pass breakups, forced 3 turnovers, 8 QB hits, and held TB to 4.3 yards-per-play.
Pick: 49ers cover

Dolphins 7-3 @ Jets 4-6 MIA-9.5
The Jets were mowed down by the Bills and playing musical QB again. It’s always possible the Jets defense pulls this team to a victory and the Dolphins are realistically not a powerhouse but they could go to town on Black Friday.
Pick: Dolphins cover

Saints 5-5 @ Falcons 4-6 ATL-1
Three straight Falcons losses and they’re slight favorites at home. What does that say about faith in the Saints? Ridder is going to be back under center. Bijan Robinson finally significally out carried Allgeier last week. I think Carr will be back but I almost prefer Winston pushing the ball downfield. This will be a slop-fest.
Pick: Saints

Steelers 6-4 @ Bengals 5-5 PIT-1
Jake Browning will be under center for the Bengals after the disappointing Burrow injury. Maybe he’ll outperform Pickett who has been a disappointment. The Bengals are a below-average offense without Burrow and the Steelers are below-average on offense period.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Panthers 1-9 @ Titans 3-7 TEN-3.5
All three of the Titans wins have come at home. They haven’t been there in a month and are rebounding from three straight road losses with the last two being blowouts. Derrick Henry has hit a spike strip multiple times and Will Levis is competent but unexciting after his debut. I’m not sure the Panthers are looking any better than the start of the season.
Pick: Titans, Panthers cover

Buccaneers 4-6 @ Colts 5-5 IND-2.5
The Bucks defense is still a competent unit. Indy has been massively outgained in the last games, victories against the Panthers and Patriots. Minshew isn’t great. I think Baker can cook on the road if he doesn’t turn the ball over.
Pick: Bucs

Patriots 2-8 @ Giants 3-8 NE-3
Giants seem to have a good play for Tommy DeVito at QB. The defense crushed it last week forcing 6! Turnovers. They look more reliable than NE right now.
Pick: Giants, NE cover

Jaguars 7-3 @ Texans 6-4 JAX-1
Are we sure the Jags are good? The offense has been far from threatening. Houston’s run game is starting to find itself and the defense isn’t bad. It’s possible CJ is the better QB on the field.
Pick: Texans

Browns 7-3 @ Denver 5-5 DEN-2.5
Denver is scraping the bottom but pulling out wins. I don’t think the offense will be able to function against the Browns defensive front. The Browns offense has a better chance to move the ball against Denver’s defense but not by much.
Pick: Browns

Rams 4-6 @ Cardinals 2-9 LAR-1
Rams have been banged up and Kyler Murry has two weeks under his belt now. LA is the better teams when healthy but that isn’t the case.
Pick: Cards

Chiefs 7-3 @ Raiders 5-6 KC-9.5
KC isn’t impressive on the offense end. Not that I’m stating anything new here. The Raiders aren’t awesome but can get pressure on Mahomes. I’m not sure they can move the ball well with Aiden O but he has the skill guys to keep it interesting. He has potential to develop moving forward.
Pick: Chiefs, Raiders cover

Bills 6-5 @ Eagles 9-1 PHI-3.5
The Bills are now plus money to make the playoffs. Which means they’re fighting uphill and in a position they didn’t expect to be. They whipped the Jets last week but this squad still has questions. Eagles beat Cowboys, Dolphins, Chiefs the past month. Bills, 49ers, Cowboys rematch the next few weeks. Outside of the Ravens and maybe the Lions they’ll have a shot at every Super Bowl contender in the mix. Are they the best team in the NFL?
Pick: Eagles cover

Ravens 8-3 @ Chargers 4-6 BAL-4
Joey Bosa is on IR with a sprained foot. Chargers will be looking for a new coach soon with how prickly the situation has become. Every football fan should be disappointed with how inapt this organization has been at creating a team around Herbert that can at least make the playoffs each year. That being said, two great QBs go to battle. Keenan Allen has at least 8 grabs in each of the last four games. Ravens lost Mark Andrews which is devastating but could add OBJ finally healthy.
Pick: Ravens cover

Bears 3-8 @ Vikings 6-5 MIN-3.5
Can we surround Fields with a competent staff? His ceiling still seems like a top-15 QB. This team can still run effectively without Fields in the mix. Justin Jefferson might be back for Minnesota. They’re better coached, the defense looks slightly better and Jefferson’s return would be a huge benefit.
Pick: Vikings, Bears cover

Top 5 TV Games
Bills @ Eagles
Jaguars @ Texans
Lions @ Packers
Ravens @ Chargers
Browns @ Broncos