Week 1: 12-4
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 9-6
Week 7: 6-7
Week 8: 12-4 Spread 11-2-3
Week 9: 11-3 Spread 9-5-0
Panthers 1-7 @ Bears 2-7 CHI-3.5
The Cats regressed last week against the Colts after the Texans win. Chicago isn’t awesome but is the better bet at home behind Bagent despite three picks last week but can move the football.
Pick: Bears, Panthers cover
Colts 4-5 @ Patriots 2-7 IND-2
Frankfurt. Doesn’t seem like Bill Bellechick’s cup of tea. Traveling with a losing team that fell at home last week to a Washington squad auctioning off players. Colts needed two pick-6’s to beat the Panthers and they might lure Mac Jones to do the same.
Pick: Colts cover
Texans 4-4 @ Bengals 5-3 CIN-6.5
The cats are hot with four straight wins including Seahawks, 49ers, Bills. They’re also 3-1 at home while Texans are 1-3 on the road. Tee Higgins is out and Chase might be too. That would mean more Tyler Boyd and Tanner Hudson who had 4-45 last week. I like the Texans to cover and play close with that injury possibility. CJ has been awesome.
Pick: Bengals, Texans cover
Saints 5-4 @ Vikings 5-4 NO-3
Do the Vikings get better with a full week of practice for Josh Dobbs? Rookie Jalen Hall going down and Dobbs with no practice stepping in for a victory is crazy. This might be the week that luck runs out for a damaged group. Not that I trust the Saints with zero wins over teams with winning records. Saints 3-2 on the road. Vikes 1-3 at home.
Pick: Saints cover
Packers 3-5 @ Steelers 5-3 PIT-3.5
Pack offense isn’t great and CB Jaire Alexander and LB Quay Walker are probably out. The Steelers have been out gained in game which is crazy. Perhaps that streak continues for one more week.
Pick: Steelers, Pack cover
Titans 3-5 @ Buccaneers 3-5 TB-1
Thank god Levis is at least a story. We have enough garbage teams in the NFL last season. Levis took a wet fart during his 2nd start on a short week for TNF and was unimpressive in a Pittsburg loss. He did chuck it 39 times and will have ample opportunity to do it again against the Bucs who scored more last week (37) than the previous three games combined during a four game losing streak. In 8 games this season either team has score over 25 points only 4 times. So outside of the Texas shootout last week the games are low and tight for the Bucs. I think the defense is better and QB is more reliable to squeak it out.
Pick: Bucs
49ers 5-3 @ Jaguars 6-2 SF-3
Perhaps I’ve been sleeping on the Jags. I have a pretty good guage on most of the league but Jacksonville is one of the teams I’ve seen the least. They’ve won 5 straight. Comfortably beat the bad teams and notched wins against the Bills and in New Orleans. They’re top 10 in points score and points allowed. Top-15 in offense. Calvin Ridley has boosted the offense, Travis Etienne has slowed down recently but is still a top back this season, the defense is finally good, and the team has been pretty healthy. SF is coming off a bye hopefully ready to roll, but I’m going with the Jags here.
Pick: Jaguars
Browns 5-3 @ Ravens 7-2 BAL-6.5
Browns blanked the Cards last week and won 3 of 4. Deshaun was back and played well last week but I’m not sure you can take much from the performance. The ground game is lacking. I don’t think the Ravens will cover against this front and it could keep the brownies in the game.
Pick: Ravens, Browns cover
Falcons 4-5 @ Cardinals 1-8 ATL-2
Kyler Murry might be back and that could make a huge difference. I’m not sure what shape he’ll be in but we’ve seen all kinds of QBs win games. The offensive line has injuries. James Conner might also be back. Cards might be back in business and pull a surprise win out of a hat with two key offensive guys back. Or they’ll still be dinged up and lose another one.
Pick: Falcons cover
Lions 6-2 @ Chargers 4-4 DET-3
LA is hanging on by a thread. We should see quite a few Detroit fans on the road. Justin Herbert is starting to face questions just like Josh Allen. With Maholmes and Burrow boasting a track record of leading flawed rosters on playoff runs, questions are mounting why the former two QBs are unable to lead arguably more talented teams over the years towards success. The defense for the Chargers has been better against the Bears and Jets the past couple weeks but the Lions aren’t those offenses. Detroit should be getting guys back off IR. I like them in an even match.
Pick: Lions, Chargers cover
Giants 2-7 @ Cowboys 5-3 DAL-17
This is a game. It will be on TV for those that want to watch.
Pick: Cowboys cover
Jets 4-4 @ Raiders 4-5 LV-1
The Raiders looked significantly better last week after a coaching change. They have players but Aiden O Connell against this defense doesn’t look promising. The Jets still field one of the worst offenses in the league but might find some yards on the ground. Yeeerch
Pick: Raiders cover
Broncos 3-5 @ Bills 5-4 BUF-7
Broncos beating the Bills would not be an expected result a month ago. Denver followed up a Packers win by beating a sluggish KC offense and sick Mahomes 24-9. Impressive regardless of the Chiefs situation. Russell Wilson has been decent this season but that isn’t good enough with the run game not posing a threat. The defense has been playing much better. Buffalo can’t run either and isn’t exactly crushing teams.
Pick: Bills, Broncos cover