NFL Picks Week 5
Week 1: 12-4
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
49ers, Chiefs, Eagles, Dallas, Bills, Dolphins, Ravens….Lions baby. Seven squads with a shot for a ring with Ravens and Lions being the furthest away in my mind.
Bears 0-4 @ Commanders 2-2
Chicago got things together last week…..for a half. Allowing the Broncos to make a 21 point comeback is just insane. Washington hung in against Philly in OT and was able to hold the birds to 4/12 on 3rd downs before losing. They should cause issues for the Bears too. What an awful Thursday game.
Pick: Commanders
Jaguars 2-2 @ Bills 3-1
Back-to-back London games for the Jags but they won’t have the same success against the Bills as they did the Falcons last week. I’m not sure Buffalo can be held under 35 points. The Bills made life difficult for the Dolphins and could put pressure on Lawrence and an offense that struggles.
Pick: Bills
Texans 2-2 @ Falcons 2-2
13 points in the past two weeks for the Falcons. The defense is solid as expected by Desmond Ridder at QB is killing the team. Texans are heading the other direction with two blowout wins in a row. The ground game is still bad but CJ Stroud looks fantastic. The defense is rounding into a complete unit.
Pick: Texans
Panthers 0-4 @ Lions 3-1
Detroit is rolling on both sides of the football. A top-10 offense and defense in the top half of the league with Jameis Willams and Gibbs not fully implemented plus numerous injuries, this squad has more room to grow. The Panthers defense is actually really good on 3rd down and that helps forgive some of the yardage they give up. The offense just isn’t good. 5 sacks taken last week, 2.7 per carry against one of the worst defenses in the league in Minnesota. This is how you damage the development of rookie QBs.
Pick: Lions
Titans 2-2 @ Colts 2-2
It’s possible every team in the AFC South is about the same. Titans, Colts, Texans, Jags all have problems and room for optimism. The Titans got stuck against Cleveland but found the ground again with Henry against the Bengals. The defense holds opponents to only 17.5 ppg, but they only score 18 ppg. Indy isn’t far from 3-1 but the metrics really say this team should be 1-3. A slit in back-to-back OT game is fortunate. Opposing offenses are outpacing the Colts offense in almost every metric. Over 24ppg given up, 413ypg, and a 38% 3rd down conversion rate. The spread on this game is even. So I guess the pick is the home team.
Pick: Colts
Giants 1-3 @ Dolphins 3-1
The Giants are bad. The Dolphins are good. It’s that simple. The Fins were ripped apart 48-20 by the Bills a week after putting up 70 but 3/10 on 3rd down, 0/3 on 4th, 2 turnovers, and 8 penalties for 98 yards while the other squad hits 50% conversion rate with no turnovers and drills deep balls to push the passing yardage to 11.5 per attempt will do that. Very few teams will be able to replicate that combination of performance. The Giants aren’t it. How frustrating it is to watch some of these offense pieces not produce. More than 12 points scored only once and they’ve given up 24+ in every game. Yuck.
Pick: Dolphins
Saints 2-2 @ Patriots 1-3
Pats suck. Saints might be ok. I don’t know how you can trust Mac Jones with no skill position talent to win anything right.
Pick: Saints
Ravens 3-1 @ Steelers 2-2
I think Baltimore is a darkhorse Superbowl team. They’re 4th in rushing yards and convert 47% of 3rd downs, 12th in points scored on offense. They’re the best team in the red zone score Tds on 12 of 15 possessions. Justin Tucker is still on the roster. They’re 3rd in points allowed and 4.9 per pass attempt. The defense could still be better in some areas and the receivers are constantly on the injury report. Between Zay Flowers, Odell, Agholor, and Andrews, Lamar has his best receiving core ever. I keep hearing about a Steelers defense that’s giving up 4.7 yards per rush and giving up 250+ passing yards per game. That’s 7th worst in the NFL.
Pick: Ravens
Eagles 4-0 @ Rams 2-2
Cooper Kupp should be back to the Rams this week. The club has some offensive line injuries that could be problematic. The Eagles are shutting down the run but giving up yards through the air. A sleep 5-0 start for the Eagles looks likely but the Rams won’t go down easy.
Pick: Eagles
Bengals 1-3 @ Cardinals 1-3
The Cards are fucking solid and they’re underdogs at home. Bengals can’t protect on the O-line, run the ball or get stops on the ass end of the defense. Dosh Dobbs might actually be better than half the QB’s in the league right now. Desmond Ridder, Bryce Young, Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, Zack Wilson, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, Jimmy G, Desaun Watson, plus banged up Joe Burrow and inconsistent Russell Wilson is he not performing better than or comparable to all of those QBs right now? Give me the hard coached team at home.
Pick: Cardinals
Jets 1-3 @ Broncos 1-3
Zack Wilson had himself a time against the Chiefs last week. 28/39 for 245 and 2 Tds, while Mahomes performed worse than the opposing QB in a head-to-head matchup for the first time…..ever. Denver can from 17 down against the struggling Bears to win their first game of the season last week. Russell Wilson has his moments but I’m not actually sure that Denver is much better than NY. Which evil do you trust?
Pick: Denver
Chiefs 3-1 @ Vikings 1-3
KC is not looking that hot outside of Kelce on offense. They’ve managed a top 10 run and pass offense but they’re still susceptible to getting jammed up with the lack of quality receiver talent. Vikings have the #3 passing offense but not much else going. KC can still get grabbed but a high powered offense that can put some pressure on them.
Pick: Chiefs
Cowboys 3-1 @ 49ers 4-0
The Boys are on the road and struggling to score in the red zone. I still think the 49ers are the better team and they’re at home. CMC needs to stay healthy and this team can really roll. Neither squad has played a team that’ll probably be in the playoffs so far but I’m going with my Super Bowl pick.
Pick: 49ers
Packers 2-2 @ Raiders 1-3
Devante Adams is questionable for his “revenge game” but Jimmy G should be back. Jordan Love isn’t awesome but should have at healthy?? Receiving core in to shred the Raiders.
Pick: Packers