NFC North
The Lions were 5-1 in the NFC North last season but could make the playoffs. They’ll have a better chance this season. The draft choices of pursuing an RB and LB early were questionable as those are two of the least valuable positions on the football field by most metrics. Jared Geoff had a career year with 4,400 yards and 29 Tds and perhaps he’s finally peaking and can maintain a high performance The offensive line returns as one of the best total units in the NFL. Amon-Ra St Brown, Jameson Williams, and Marvin Jones could be a top 10 trio of receivers. The running back room is stacked. The defense will be better than, well, bottom-5 in most categories with the front office taking shots at a few free agents in the secondary. Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston were smash draft picks on the defensive line.
I would love for Justin Fields to turn into a passing weapon with the rushing complement since he had the 2nd best rushing season for a QB last year. They brought in DJ Moore for a haul along with Chase Claypool. The offensive line will have new pieces. The defense will have half the starters replaced by names like LB Tremaine Edmunds and DE Demarcus Walker. They should make strides and be shocking but still looked sloppy in the preseason.
Jordan Love has looked solid in the preseason but I don’t think this team explodes off the page. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion will be heavily featured behind an elite offensive line. Receiver core will be young, defense has young pieces but defensive line will be a strength. I don’t think this team will be awful, but they’ll need a season to win playoff games.
Minnesota went to the playoffs but had a negative point differential and was the luckiest team in the NFL last season. Kirk Cousins had a career year and his connection with Justin Jefferson is one of the best QB-WR pairs in the league. Jordan Addison will be a fun add. He was the top receiver in college in 2021. A lot of starters are back but the draft was and signings were light. The defense was bad last year. This team is due to regress.
1. Detroit Lions
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Chicago Bears
4. Minnesota Vikings
NFC East
I don’t want to be that guy…..but the Eagles had a pretty damn east schedule all the way up to the Super Bowl last season. Yes the roster was awesome and top 10 in everything except rushing defense, but 7-1 against teams winning teams with Pitt, Det, and the Giants (twice) barley meeting that criteria can be picked apart. Smacking the Giants again in the playoffs and the 49ers QB issues gave them a great path and they took advantage, as a good team should. DT Jalen Carter and LB Nolan Smith were snatched right up at the draft to keep the squad steady or better.
Dallas has won 12 games back-to-back seasons. Stephan Gilmore and a couple rookies are the upgrades on defense while the offense Adds Brandan Cooks to help replace Amari Cooper. Tony Pollard is the full time running back. Stephan Gilmore is a huge piece to add to the defense. Will Dak and McCarthy continue to be questioned?
It was a miracle and Daniel Jones that pushed the Giants to the playoffs last season. They were 13th in sacks and 14th in passing defense and 4th in rushing but really quite horrible in most aspects. The roster will be better but the team isn’t near the talent of Dallas or Philly.
Washington needs Sam Howell to be good and he look promising in the preseason. The young skill position guys-Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Brian Robinson Jr, Antonio Gibson have been well discussed. The O-line will be better. The defense was one of the best over groups in the NFL last season and only added in the offseason. Get this team a damn QB.
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Washington Commanders
4. New York Giants
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. Arizona Cardinals
I retain that once the book is published someday covering the Kyle Shanahan era in San Fran, it’ll be reflected upon rather poorly as a franchise that should have been in Super Bowl every single season (except year 1) during his tenure but had momentous problems with injuries and QB choices that constantly tanked top-5 rosters. This was the #1 defense last season, by 20th in passing. Smaller signings and draftees will help. Hargrave will help the pass rush. The defense should be even better. The offense was top-10 last season and full of talented guys and a ok offensive line that’s had some turnover They also lead the league in turnover differential. Trey Lance is gone so it’s Brock Purdy’s show. If something happens to him, Sam Darnold will suddenly find himself in the driver’s seat of a Super Bowl contender.
Seattle’s stats from last season don’t pop off the page. Offense 13th, rushing 18th, passing 11th, 3rd down % 20th. Defense 26th, rushing 30th, passing 13th. But the front office work on all the problem areas like a good squad. Zach Charbonett joins Kenneth Walker III at RB. Jaxson Smith-Njigba joins DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at WR. Geno Smith is back behind an o-line that’s received upgrades. The safety group is one of the best in the NFL and pieces were added to the defensive line. This team is still counting on significant standing or improvement of a young roster and a vet QB to sustain last seasons production.
The Rams underwent one of the biggest roster shedding events we’ve seen and brought in tons of draftees and undrafted players to fill the roster. You’d expect a certain level of compantance from Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donaldd, and Sean McVay. But Kupp just had a new injury crop up, Stafford is returning from surgery and isn’t going to play if they’re losing. McVay and Donald thought about retiring in the offseason. Cam Akers, the starting back, doesn’t get along with McVay. Seems like a mess. Speak of which, the Cards are straight rebuilding from the studs if you haven’t heard. They’re still trading and cutting players. Kyler Murray trade talk has started and we don’t know who will be throwing while he recovers from surgery this season. His buddy Marquise Brown was brought in as a top receiver last season but the group isn’t strong outside of him. The defense still has a couple guys like Zaven Collins, Isaiah Simmons, and Budda Baker but every move has screamed “reset” this past offseason coming off a 4-13 seasons.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Carolina Panthers
Yikes. Let’s start with the Panthers. Carolina is rebuilding for the 2nd time in 3 seasons. The offensive line looks terrible (outside of fellow Okemos High grad Taylor Moton!) which is not good for rookie Bryce Young trying to develop good habits. Who are you afraid of on offense? Jags castoff DJ Chark? Vikings vet Adam Thielen? Former Raven/Falcon Raven Hayden Hurst? Eagles send off Miles Sanders? Not a bad group collectively but all were viewed as dispensable at their former homes. Brian Burns is awesome on defense and Jaycee Horns needs to stay healthy in the secondary but that side of the ball isn’t full of sure things.
Atlanta-Desmond Ridder, Kyle Pitts, Drake London-are they all going to mesh into an even an ok offense that’s difficult to cover? The run game, one of the best in 22, adds Bijan Robinson and should be dangerous. Free agency have added Calais Campbell and David Onyemata to Grady Jarrett on a strong defensive line. Jessie Bates III and a shot at Jeff Okudah should make the secondary threatening.
The Bucs offense should be frisky with Mike Even and Chris Godwin. Baker Mayfield can certainly play and move the pocket. He might have to if the offensive line or ground game struggles. The defense still has big pieces in NT Vita Vea, LB Shaquil Barrett, LB Devin White, and S Antonie Winfield Jr.
The Saints are….weird. Vet Derek Carr is in. Alvin Kamara is suspended for a third of the season. Michael Thomas hasn’t played in a long time. Chris Olave looks good. The O-line hasn’t been healthy. The run D was horrible last season but free agent adds should help. The passing D was #2 last season and returns starters. I donno. A certain competency is expected but the win total has gone from 13, 12, 9, 7 the past 4 seasons.
AFC North
1. Miami Dolphins
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New York Jets
4. New England Patriots
Josh Allen has to handle more than any QB in the league as a passer and rusher. Stefon Diggs couldn’t stand the team after another devastation playoff loss last season but he returns with Gabe Davis. Adding rookie TE Dalton Kincaid from Utah to Dawson Knox looks like the biggest upgrade on a top-5 offense. The O-line should be good again. James Cook is taking over RB duty but he wasn’t even a starter in college so I’ll believe his consistency when I see it. The defense is top-6 but 15th in passing. Von Miller and Micah Hyde should be back healthy to a talented defense.
My-freaking-ami added Robby Anderson and Braxton Berrios to Hill and Waddle for a loaded receiving core. The running back room should be average solid with Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr, and Devon Achane who carried the Texas A&M offense last season. Two seasons after grading as one of the worst offense lines in history, the O-line should be around average which is important to keep Tua healthy. The defense was horrible at stopping the pass last season but they were banged up and should be healthy plus add a top CB in Jalen Ramsey and bring in rookie Cam Smith from South Carolina. A spattering of other signings could give this team a huge boost.
The Jets had a top-5 passing defense last season and were great at causing pressure. Stopping the run and actually forcing turnovers were issues. Will McDonald the rookie from Iowa State will help, but their do need to be some improvements from last season’s guys. The offensive line looks rough by Aaron Rodgers can move. The skill talent looks suspect to me. Breece Hall is back from injury and playing his first real time behind this iffy line. Michael Carter is the backup. Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, and Corey Davis aren’t inspiring but Garrett Wilson looks great. I’m not sure what to make of this team that managed 7 wins last season.
Which brings me to the Pats. The defense wasn’t the problem last season but the Pats spent their first 3 picks on defensive guys. The offense was one of the worst in the NFL and they spend a lot of money last offseason, which was abnormal, to bring in personnel. So WTF happened? JuJu Smith-Schuster and new offensive coordinator…Bill O’Brien! Yessir Billy boy back in the fold, are expected to revitalize the Pats.
AFC East
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Pittsburg Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns
I love Lamar Jackson. Why he sat on the market as a top-10 (at least) QB I’m not quite sure. I do subscribe to trying to win with cheaper QBs but breaking the bank for a couple teams (Detroit*cough cough*) could have really elevated them to the next level. Hopefully OBJ and rookie Zay Flowers elevates what has always been a sub-par receiving core. J.K Dobbins holding out isn’t awesome but Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are back. Mark Andrews returns. The O-line returns four starters. The secondary was 26th last season in stopping the pass but returns starters and should be in better shape. Roquan Smith was a big add last season. The defensive line is ok. The team was also one of the most banged up teams in the league last year so health would help.
The Bengals have a top flight receiving group for the third straight season. He offensive line was one a liability but now is solid. The run game with Joe Mixon was 29th in the NFL last season. Chase Brown the Illinois rookie was a great grab to try and uplift that spot. The front seven defensively couldn’t stay healthy last season but should be steady and returns. The secondary is going to be left to young bodies after letting Jessie Bates and less productive members move on.
Desaun Watson sucked last season. His improvement would mean a roster with a top receiver in Amari Cooper, a top RB in Nick Chubb and a nice offensive line can do some real damage. It’s certainly possible Myles Garrett is a future HOFer. The rest of the front seven has questions but the secondary should be strong.
I don’t know what to make of Kenny Pickett, but he looked good. The receiving good is solid as is the offensive line. TJ Watt will wreck on the defensive side of the ball. He missed games last season. Najee Harris is being questioned at a productive starter. The secondary has new bodies that were super talented in college.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Denver Broncos
4. Las Vegas Raiders
AFC West was supposed to be awesome last season but fell flat. Denver can’t be as horrible with Russell Wilson. Sean Payton wouldn’t come out of retirement to for such a lost cause and he tossed the former coaching staff under the buss. The receiving core is catching bodies already with Tim Patrick and Jerry Judy injured probably for the season. Courland Sutton and rookie Marvin Mims Jr are to of the line. Samaje Perine and Javonte Williams are the backs and a not very exciting duo. The defense was top 10 despite being on the field all the time. Turnover took place but the defense should be better if they aren’t on the field 65% of the time.
Las Vegas wasn’t sure Garoppolo was going to make it over as QB after injury and he isn’t an upgrade over Carr. Josh Jacobs and Jamall Adams are obviously huge weapons. The trenches have questions on both sides. As does the entire defense.
The Chargers should make the playoffs for only the 2nd time in Justin Herbert’s 4 years. Health was a problem last season but he’ll have wide receiver talent with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back, a great offensive line and Austin Ekeler. If the defense is healthy the 28th ranked run defense should shore up behind Joey Bosa but the secondary might have some questions.
KC won’t be without questions but should shore them up. Frank Clark is holding out but DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah from Kansas State should be awesome. The offensive tackle position will see turnover as will the receiver position. The Chiefs drafted to fill these holes.
AFC South
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Houston Texans
Anthony Richardson will go through growing pains but an offense build around his rushing ability will be awesome….if Jonathan Taylor plays. The defense was middling last season and should grow, especially with a healthy DeForest Buckner. The Texans made big moves to grab CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr and shouldn’t be a dumpster fire.
I like Trevor Lawrence to win the division behind the Jags offense but the defense has questions for Jacksonville. Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones, Christin Krik, Evan Engram, Travis Etienne are all offensive weapons but the o-line is questionable. Tennessee is rolling out Tannehill and Henry for year number 5? The receiving core looked horrible before Hopkins showed up and the o-line downgraded. The #1 run D returns key guys but the secondary, dead last in 22, needs more upgrading than it received. Good coaching should pull this team through but if one of the other teams hits on better development and scheming then Tennessee could tank.
Playoffs
NFC
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Detroit Lions
4. New Orleans Saints
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Seattle Seahawks
7. Washington Commanders
Dallas did enough to upgrade to bypass the Eagles. I still believe in the 49ers over the Seahawks with a great roster. I think the Lions survive a grindy north and Commanders sneak in with a competent offense. Saints win division with an easy schedule.
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Los Angeles Chargers
Loaded AFC. I could whiff big time here but I like the Miami roster and I’m not as high on the Bills. I’m going with Baltimore with some question marks over Bengals with a banged up Joe Borrow and questionable running game. I’m sliding the Chargers in on a hope and a prayer.
AFC Championship
Kansas City Chiefs over
Buffalo Bills
NFC Championship
San Francisco 49ers over
Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers over Kansas City Chiefs
Two loaded rosters in the NFC Championship game but I’ll go with the 49ers and a healthy, improved QB in Brock Purdy. KC will continue to roll unless they catch a stray for now and that’s hard to predict. I think the 49ers defense is just frustrating enough in the Super Bowl to come out ahead in the 2020 rematch.