-Originally published 9/19/21-
Fresh Squeezed
Rams (1-0) @ Colts (0-1) – Sunday, 1pm
Stafford sure looks sharp doesn’t he? No preseason no problem nuking the Bears 34-14 putting up 321 yards passing and 3 Tds at 12.3 ypa and getting the entire crew, Kupp, Woods, Higbee, Van Jefferson, involved. Hell, DeSean Jackson caught a couple balls. You forgot about him right? Carson Wentz was 25/38 for 251 and 2 Tds in his debut but the offense wasn’t officiant and Russell Wilson picked apart the backend of the defense in a 28-16 Seattle win. The Colts will need to a lot of things to go right to avoid a 0-2 start. It’s not impossible, the defensive front can generate some pressure and Jonathan Taylor would have to get going. LA allowed 120 yards rushing to running backs last week.
Prediction: Rams 35-23
Bills (0-1) @ Dolphins (1-0) – 1pm
The Fins won against the Patriots with fewer yards, fewer yards per play, 13 fewer minutes possession time, and much worse efficiency on 3rd down. So how did they win? They won the turnover battle 2-1 had few penalties (5-28/8-84) and were more efficient in the red zone (2/2-1/4). Josh Allen was 30/51 against Pittsburgh’s stellar defense last week. If the Bills could have mustered another touchdown in the 23-16 loss they should have been able to clinch the win against the limited Steelers. They should get right this week and make sushi of the Dolphins…unless Brian Flores continues to make mountains out of mole hills.
Prediction: Bills 31-24
49ers (1-0) @ Eagles (1-0) – 1pm
Jimmy G passed for 314 yards in a 41-33 win over the Lions. Detroit pushed back from a 28 point deficit to try and comeback. The 49ers still need to show they’re at full able to play at a Championship level again after all the injuries last season. Flattening the Eagles would be good start after the Eagles put up 32 points behind Jalen Hurts 77%, 326 total yards and 3 Tds. This should be one of the better matchups on the week.
Prediction: 49ers 27-24
Raiders (1-0) @ Steelers (1-0) – 1pm
The Raiders passing attack and spotty defense against Pittsburg’s top defense and struggling offense. Polar opposites. Derek Carr had the opportunity to put up 435 passing yards and 56 attempts with extra time in a win. Carr only had eyes for Darren Waller who was targeted 19 times and finished with 10 receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown. Hunter Renfrow finished 2nd in targets with 9 (he had 6 receptions for 70 yards). The run game wasn’t prolific, but losing Josh Jacobs this week against the Steelers this week. The Steelers will defense locked up on Buffalo last week but the offense only managed 75 yards rushing and 188 passing. LA’s defense looked better last week, but Pittsburg will have an easier time moving the ball this Sunday. I think the Raiders offensive line could get moved around some and Carr will face some pressure. The receivers might be able to outpace the secondary. I think the Steelers win but this should be an excellent chess match.
Prediction: Steelers 31-28
Saints (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0) – 1pm
The Saints looked elite behind Jameis Winston running up the score 38-3. Winston was only 14/20 for 148 yards but efficient throwing 5 touchdowns. The defense looked great but the Packers might struggle this season. Sam Darnold looked solid throwing for 279 yards, 1 td, 68.6% against the Jets. Christian McCaffrey is still the lynchpin of the offense with 98 yards rushing and 89 receiving. The defense rolled up six sacks and held the Jets to 252 yards and 16 points. NO is in trouble this week with starters DE Marcus Davenport, LB Kwon Alexander, and C Erik McCoy on IR and seven assistant coaches out due to covid protocol. Carolina finds itself in a good (and healthy) spot to surprise some folks early and knock off the short-handed Saints.
Prediction: Panthers 33-30
Cowboys (0-1) @ Chargers (1-0) – 4:25pm
The Cowboys and Chargers offenses were both potent last week. Dallas almost completely abandon the run allowing Prescott to put the ball in the air 58 times (vs 18 rush) in order to keep up with Tampa. LA won 20-16 over Washington and Justin Herbert put up 337 yards. The run game was held under 100. The Chargers should be able to open things up against the Cowboys although Dallas looked better than last season in week 1. Dallas will presumably put the ball on the ground after LA gave up 107 yards on the ground to RBs. I still think the Chargers are more balanced and have a better defensive front.
Prediction: Chargers 38-35
Chiefs (1-0) @ Ravens (0-1) – 8:20pm
it’s possible Baltimore is on a downslide. They couldn’t avoid critical mistakes to beat the Raiders. Offensively, they’re more limited than ever with RB injuries and still no standout WR. KC’s greatest weakness has been the ground game but outscoring KC isn’t something to bet against.
Prediction: Kansas City 34-28
Lower Grove:
NY Giants (0-1) @ Washington (0-1) – Thursday, Sep 16th
Ryan Fitzpatrick is out and Chad Heinicke is in for Washington. Two defenses battling iffy QBs on Thursday Night Football isn’t the recipe for a great time but TNF typically provides entertainment for otherwise napworthy games. Washington’s defense has gained a reputation and expectation to be great this season off the backs of play bad offenses at the end of last season. They made the Chargers work for the end zone last week and held the team to 3.1 ypc but Herbert still threw for 337 yards and that’s what matters. The Giants only managed 314 yards of total offense against the Broncos last week. When in doubt take the home team. I also really love watching Chase Young play. Even on some passing plays after a receiver is tackled 15 yards downfield he’ll sometimes be one of the few defenders on the screen in pursuit.
Prediction: Washington 27-23
Vikings (0-1) @ Cardinals (1-0) – 4pm
The Cards were shocking last week as they plowed over Titans. Kyler Murry had 5 total touchdowns. The run game had 136 yards on the ground and Chandler Jones had 5 sacks. They’ll face another iffy team defensively this week and look to move to 2-0. The Vikings are going to rely on Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Delvin Cook to outscore teams all season.
Prediction: Cardinals 27-20
Titans (0-1) @ Seahawks (1-0) – 4:25pm
Tennessee’s offensive line might be problematic and we knew the defense was going to struggle. Trading for Julio Jones wasn’t going to cover those blemishes. The Titans can regain footing against the Seahawks but this is suddenly looking like a mismatch if the Titans continue to struggle on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: Seahawks 31-21
Lions (0-1) @ Packers (0-1) – MNF
This matchup could be a crapshoot or business as usual. Aaron Rogers is 17-5 against the Lions but clearly the drama has crept onto the field. The Lions showed fight against SF and could pull an upset if scheme, talent, and….some skill come together. Roger probably won’t want a home Lions loss as a blemish on his record so any Lions opposition might be moot point. I think he’ll light the world on fire and his buddy Devante Adams will have 20+ targets, 150+ yards and a couple Tds.
Prediction: Packers 42-24
Rotten:
Bengals (1-0) @ Bears (0-1) – 1pm
Matt Nagay is making a mistake playing to not lose with Andy Dalton. Two plays with Justin Fields in the game and the TV camera wouldn’t stop panning to him on the sidelines. The Bears just aren’t very good and the talent has eroded over the past couple season and Fields raises the potential ceiling, even if he lowers the floor some. Joe Burrow looks ready to roll again and pushed his squad past the Vikings 27-24 last week. He completed 74% of his passes at 9.7 ypa, so the ball was going downfield. The Bears will give up yardage as well. Bengals should surprise and move to 2-0.
Prediction: Bengals 24-20
Texans (1-0) @ Browns (0-1) – Sunday, 1pm
The Browns came up short against KC but they’re in the upper tier of squads that can win the Super Bowl. Houston smashed the Jags, but they might have one of the worst rosters in the league right now.
Prediction: Browns 35-21
Patriots (0-1) @ Jets (0-1) – 1pm
Billy B doesn’t lose to rookie QBs. Zac Wilson will be fun to see grow into this offense but the Pats will continue to break in Mac Jones and concur behind the run game and top defensive unit.
Prediction: Patriots 21-16
Broncos (1-0) @ Jaguars (0-1) – 1pm
Jacksonville had a rough start in a 37-21 bludgeoning to the unanimous “worst team in the league” preseason. Trevor Lawrence has 3 interceptions, the team tallied 10 penalties and basically everything went wrong. Lawrence still put a couple drives together and put the ball in the air 51 times for 332 yards and 3 Tds. That’ll happen often this season. Denver’s offense under Teddy Bridgewater looked pretty good against the Giants defense last week. 420 yards of offense and no turnovers for Bridgewater who went for 264 2-0 td-int and completed 78% of his passes.
Prediction: Broncos 34-27
Falcons (0-1) @ Buccaneers (1-0) – 4pm
The Falcons looked like shit getting blasted but the lowly Eagles 32-6 last week. What the hell are they going to do against the Buccaneers? Tampa isn’t without flaws. They played what looks to be a potent Cowboys offense and Prescott near stole the opener but getting into the end zone a couple times should be considered a success for the already reeeeeling Falcons.
Prediction: Buccaneers 34-17
