-Originally published 11/19/21-
Bye Week: Broncs, Rams
TNF – 8:20 – Patriots (6-4) @ Falcons (4-5)
Atlanta was crushed by the Cowboys while the Pats did the crushing against the Browns on Sunday. The Pats are 4-0 on the road and ready for a playoff run. Mac Jones is completing 75% of his passes so far this month and looks like the rookie QB in the best situation to succeed so far. The defense racked up six sacks against Cleveland and will be going after Ryan. Falcons moved into the #7 seed for the playoffs but they’re without Cordarelle Patterson, limited with offensive weapons, and the defense isn’t threatening.
Pick: Patriots
Sunday, November 21st
Fresh Squeezed
1 – Colts (5-5) @ Bills (6-3)
The Bills defense has looked great all season and in beating the leagues bottom squads: Jets, Jags, Dolphins the past three weeks. The offense clicked against last week and piled up 45. Indy survived the Jags 23-17 and they’ve won 4 of 5. Wentz has a 17-3 Td-Int ratio and isn’t making big plays but he’ll probably have to step up against the Bills. Taylor one of the best backs in the game but the Bills will put up points on the Colts and make the offense on-dimensional.
Pick: Bills
1 – Ravens (6-3) @ Bears (3-6)
Baltimore’s reliance on Lamar is becoming glaringly apparent. The 22-10 loss to the Dolphins in TNF was just a blitz fest but now the Ravens have lost two of the last three. They’re an OT win over the Viking and a game-winning field goal over the Lions away from a losing record. Chicago is coming out of a bye with a four game losing streak but they have David Montgomery back. The Ravens should still be safe here as they blitz up Justin Fields but they don’t look like a Super Bowl team.
Pick: Ravens
4:25 – Cowboys (7-2) @ Chiefs (6-4)
KC bombed the Raiders 41-14 with the game decided after 3 quarters. The Cowboys pounded the Falcons 43-3. They actually rank #1 and #4 in ypg and #1 and #10 in ppg respectively. The Cowboys defense has made strides from the dumpster fire it was last season. The Chiefs inconsistences aren’t going to be solved after the Raiders beat down I think the Cowboys win on the road.
Pick: Cowboys
Lower Grove
1 – Saints (5-4) @ Eagles (4-6)
Philly is surprisingly frisky and will have an opportunity to pull another upset. The 0-4 home record is a weird state they’ll have to reverse. Kamara is probably out which leaves Trevor Siemian-Mark Ingram-Tre’Quan Smith as the top playmaking trio for the Saints. Miles Sanders could be back and provide a ground game for the Eagles. NO will try to avoid their third straight loss and halfway through the season we may unexpectedly find these two with the same record.
Pick: Eagles
1 – Washington (3-6) @ Panthers (5-5)
Cam Newton will be back on the field and could start Sunday afternoon against the struggling Washington’s. Carolina looked re-energized with Cam on the sideline as they mauled a Kyler-less Cards team 34-10. McCaffrey had 23 touches and is bad in his roll of being the focal point of the offense. Ryan Anderson and DJ Moore haven’t been found by Darnold and Cam’s poor accuracy won’t help but his energy might. The defense is still the lynchpin of the Panthers success.
Pick: Panthers
4:05 – Bengals (5-4) @ Raiders (5-4)
LV has dropped two straight, a Td loss to the lowly Giants and a blowout loss to the Chiefs, and is suddenly scrambling to stay in the playoff hunt with Bengals, @Cowboys, Washington, @Chiefs, @Browns threatening to tear them up in the next month. The defense is bad and was exploited by KC. Cincy is coming off a bye having also lost two straight and was blown out by Cleveland last outing. The -4 turnover margin is a problem and the defense isn’t great. This should be higher scoring affair between two squads fighting for the playoffs after quick starts.
Pick: Bengals
4:25 – Cardinals (8-2) @ Seahawks (3-6)
Cards are 5-0 on the road and returning Kyler to the offense. Zero points, 50% passing and two interceptions, in a 17-0 loss to the Packers has Russell Wilson’s ability in doubt coming off the finger injury. Only the Jets are giving up more yards than Seattle but they’re keep opponents to 20.7ppg. Hopefully both QB’s will be in reasonable shape to make the game entertaining or this could be another ugly result for the Hawks.
Pick: Cardinals
8:20 – Steelers (5-3-1) @ Chargers (5-4)
The Chargers are one of the best pass defense in the league, in part, because teams only run against one of the worst run defenses in the league. It was a flip last week when they only gave up 110 yards rushing to Minnesota and 294 yards and 2 Tds to Cousins. LA is giving up over 25ppg and really struggling regardless of how you decide to score. Pitt is without top pass rusher TJ Watt but the defense is still the calling card and Herbert has lost some of his luster. The Steelers have other injuries and the offensive isn’t great either. Neither team is stellar; I’ll take the home squad.
Pick: Chargers
Rot
1 – Lions (0-8-1) @ Browns (5-5)
Cleveland was hammered by New England 45-7 win no Chubb and Mayfield was horrific giving away to Case Keenum. It was largely a throw away game for a squad that shouldn’t have problems here if they’re any good but the Jekyll/Hyde is killing them. Nick Chubb will return to take the ball out of his hands for this week. Detroit didn’t lose on Sunday at least and Swift racked up 130 yards so that’s a bright spot. Tim Boyle will probably be the starting QB for this bad bad team. Hard working sure, but bad. That’s why they haven’t won.
Pick: Browns
1 – Texans (1-8) @ Titans (8-2)
Titans won their sixth straight with a 23-21 victory over the Saints last week with scrub receivers and running backs leading the way. The Texans are coming off a bye still isn’t a squad that looks like it wants to win.
Pick: Titans
1 – Dolphins (3-7) @ Jets (2-7)
The Jets defense is setting records for points allowed. Miami put together a good game play against the Ravens last week, they’re ahead of NY right now.
Pick: Dolphins
1 – 49ers (4-5) @ Jaguars (2-7)
SF swallowed the Rams 31-10 on MNF. Garoppolo was 15/19 for 182 and 2 Tds. They converted 8 of 14 3rd downs while holding LA to 3/10. Jacksonville beat the Bills two weeks ago and played the Colts within a possession but they’re allowing almost 10 points more than they’re scoring, allowing almost a 40% 3rd down conversion rate while converting 30% themselves and currently hold a -10 turnover ratio.
Pick: 49ers
MNF – Giants (3-6) @ Buccaneers (6-3)
Brady can’t be happy losing to Washington out of a bye. Something that didn’t happen in New England. Giants are coming off a bye having won 2 of 3 (and playing KC close) so it could be interesting in Tampa on Monday Night.
Pick: Buccaneers