-Originally published 11/6/20-
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 11-3
Week 8: 7-7
Overall: 74-45
Thursday, November 5th
Green Bay Packers (5-2) @ SF 49ers (4-4)
The Packers are having a hell of a time stopping the run and will have a tough matchup against the 49ers to try and right the ship. The list of running backs available could be short with Adam Jones questionable with a calf injury and AJ Dillon testing positive for Covid. The 49ers will be without QB Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle for extended periods of time due to injuries and receivers Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne and left tackle Trent Williams were placed on the Covid list and won’t play. Raheem Mostert is still out. The name of the game for SF will be to hand the ball off to whoever has the hot hand and lean on the defense to slow down the Packers. That might be too tough a task for all the injuries the 49ers have suffered on a short week.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 9th – Early Afternoon Slate
NY Giants (1-7) @ Washington (2-5)
Pick: NY Giants
Houston Texans (1-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)
Pick: Houston Texans
Denver Broncos (3-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-6)
Pick: Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions (3-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (2-5)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers (3-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-1)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks (6-1) @ Buffalo Bills (6-2)
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears (5-3) @ Tennessee Titans (5-2)
Pick: Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-2)
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
The early slate features several games between either two crappy of games that won’t be very competitive. Only three should be really interesting.
The Giants and Washington both have a chance to win the crappy NFC East still. Washington needs a real QB and the Giants are close to winning real games, but these are two of the bottom-3 offenses in the NFL right now.
Houston and Jacksonville both suck and are devoid of talent. The Texans were shopping Will Fuller at the trade deadline but couldn’t agree on a price with the Packers. Jacksonville is coming off a bye and Gardner Minshew will be on the bench after discovering a thumb injury. Rookie Luke Luton out of Oregon State will be starting in his place.
Drew Lock isn’t looking like the future for the Broncos, but the defense is keeping the team relevant and in the playoff picture. They’re 6th in pressure rate 25.5% and RB Phillip Lindsay is starting to outperform Melvin Gordon on the ground. They are tied for the 2nd worst turnover margin at -7. The Falcons defense is looking more compete after a rough first quarter. The Broncos are the only competent defense outside of the Bears they’ll have played all year.
Detroit will be without Matthew Stafford (Covid) and Kenny Golladay (hip). Minnesota won last week but both of these defenses are bad. I don’t know how the Lions win without Stafford. The Chiefs should shred the Panthers defense, but Carolina could keep up for a while.
Bears/Titans is a matchup of poor offense and poor defense. Both teams are potential playoff teams. Mitch Trubisky could find himself back at the helm of this horrible offense. They’re bottom-5 at 310 yards-per-game of offense. The Titans secondary isn’t good, but they ad CB Desmond King in a trade from the Chargers to try and make things better.
Seattle’s defense isn’t good; the run game isn’t very good. It’s Russell or bust and it’s working so far. The Bills have been struggling offensively with Josh Allen regressing from his stellar play earlier in the year. The defense shut down the Patriots last week and Devin Singletary (14 Car, 86 Yds) and Zack Moss (14 Car, 81 Yds, 2 Tds) finally had big days as the ground game has struggled outside of Allen.
Baltimore has losses to Kansas City and Pittsburg and the struggles have been well documented on offense at this point with Lamar Jackson. They’re still one of the best teams in the league. Phillip Rivers has looked great the past couple weeks, throwing 6 touchdowns to 1 interception, 66.6% completion percentage and 633 yards. The Ravens are 3rd in pressure rate (26.6%) and the Colts are 8th (24.8%). This should be an excellent game, but I think the Ravens pull it out.
Sunday, November 9th – Late Afternoon Slate
Pittsburg Steelers (7-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-6)
Pick: Pittsburg Steelers
LV Raiders (4-3) @ LA Chargers (2-5)
Pick: LA Chargers
Miami Dolphins (4-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-2)
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
The Steelers will smoke Dallas in the late afternoon slate. The Cowboy offense is going downhill, the defense is bad and Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league. Raiders/Chargers and Dolphins/Cardinals will both be great contests.
Miami is tied for 7th with a +7 turnover differential. Tua needs to show more than he did against the Rams (12/22, 93 Yds, 1 Td) but this is a good team that’s in every game. Arizona looks the part of a real playoff team. The defense isn’t excellent, but Kyler Murry is able to move the ball with a real offensive weapon in DeAndre Hopkins. He leads the league in yards (704) and receptions (57).
The Chargers have now lost three games where they’ve had a 17+ point lead. That has to give at some point right? The Raiders defense still isn’t good, but they’re finding ways to win. I just refuse to believe the Chargers keep losing. Justin Herbert makes big plays downfield and Derrek Carr will try to keep pace. This should be a great game.
Sunday, November 10th – Sunday Night Football
New Orleans Saints (5-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)
Tampa’s close 25-23 victory over the Giants last week was a blip as they round into Super Bowl form. Tom Brady is tied for 4th in touchdowns (20) and 4th in passing yards (2,189). Antonio Brown is set to make his debut and the offense has yet to balance the wide receiver core and running back comity, but they’ll have time to do just that. A late week 13 bye with the Vikings, Lions, and Falcons on the schedule twice to wrap up the season, this is one of the few touch games left on the schedule. The Saints offense isn’t pushing the ball downfield and would struggle without Alvin Kamara. The defense isn’t top notch either.
Pick: Tampa Bay Bucs
Monday, November 11th – Monday Night Football
New England Patriots (2-5) @ NY Jets (0-8)
What a junk Thursday night game. If Adam Gase weren’t such an incompetent coach I would pick them for the upset. Cam Newton can’t throw the ball downfield, the defense isn’t looking good, and Billy Cheapcheck is starting to let his walls down a bit, noting that years of stacking teams for Super Bowls has eventually lead to this point. The defensive opt-outs are hurting too as are the questionable draft picks made earlier this year. It would be disastrous for the Pats to lose here, but both of these teams are heading for a rebuild.
Pick: New England Patriots