-Originally published 10/31/20-
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 8-6
Overall: 56-35
Thursday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons (1-6) @ Carolina Panthers (3-4)
Matt Ryan is #1 in passing yards (2,181) and Teddy Bridgewater is #2 (1,930). Robby Anderson for Carolina is #2 in receiving yards (640), DJ Moore is 7th (567) and Calvin Ridley for Atlanta is #3 (615). Julio Jones has missed more time than he’s played, but checks in at #20 (447). It’s safe to say this will be a shootout. Atlanta has given up more yards than anyone in the league but Carolina isn’t exactly slowing people and has one of the worst QB pressure rates in the league. Adding Julio Jones seems to have really helped Matt Ryan out and they would have won last week if Gurley hadn’t given Detroit time to come back and win the game. Its realllly hard to pick the Falcons, but I’m going Atlanta with healthy offensive weapons on Thursday night.
Atlanta Falcons 45 Carolina Panthers 42
Sunday-Early Slate
New England Patriots (2-4) @ Buffalo Bills (5-2)
Buffalo had to survive a field goal game against the Jets last week. Luckily for the Bills, their slum coincides with the Pats slide. Cam Newton is having troubles and the team can’t throw the ball when they need to move away from the ground game. Good coaching can’t always mask a team lacking talent and the opt outs on defense are starting to show. The defense still has one of the highest pressure rates in the league (27.7%) but the poor offense is starting to compromise the defense. Newton is getting pressured on 25% of drop backs. Buffalo has to get John Brown healthy and it would be nice if one of the running backs between Zack Moss and Devin Singletary provided a real threat on the ground. The offense has grown stagnate the past 3 weeks averaging only 17 ppg. The Patriots might be able to grind out a victor here but I expect the Bills with the much better roster to pull through.
New England Patriots 13 Buffalo Bills 16
Tennessee Titans (5-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-5-1)
Cincinnati has one of the worst offensive and defensive lines in the NFL. The defense made Baker Mayfield (22-28, 297 Yds, 5 Tds, 1 Int) look like a pro-bowler last week. With Joe Mixon questionable, Joe Burrow and the receiving weapons are the lone bright spot. The Titans have been certainly been susceptible to the pass; they’re allowing 272 passing yards per game, 7th highest in the league. Burrow’s 3rd in league in passing yards (2,023 Yds). He’ll absolutely keep the Bengals in the game. The Titans came up short against the Steelers 27-24 last week, but them was able to move the ball pretty well considering they were playing the best defense in the league. They’ll have a much easier time this weekend.
Tennessee Titans 28 Cincinnati Bengal 24
Oakland Raiders (3-3) @ Cleveland Browns (5-2)
With Odell Beckham Jr out for the year, Baker Mayfield should be more inclined to deal the ball around. He completed 22 of 28 passes for 297 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Bengals last week and gets matched up against an awful Oakland secondary this week. The Browns secondary is 3rd worst, allowing 288 passing yards-per-game. The Raiders have a -5 turnover differential (tied 29th) and Cleveland is +5 (tied 4th).This should be a shootout with the Raiders allowing over 32 ppg and Derek Carr (13 Tds, 2 Int, 1,726 Yds, 72%) quietly operating as one of the most efficient QBs in the league and hopefully returning WR Bryan Edwards out of the bye week. The assumption is that Cleveland is still the more effective offense even with Nick Chubb, Beckham, and Austin Hooper still out and I think the Raiders could pull an upset with two weeks prep, but I can’t pick against Cleveland’s ability to pressure Carr and protect Mayfield.
Oakland Raiders 31 Cleveland Browns 42
Indianapolis Colts (4-2) @ Detroit Lions (3-3)
Detroit survived the Falcons last week and after the Colts the schedule looks winnable with @Minnesota, Washington, @Carolina, Houston, and @Chicago all looking winnable. The Colt are coming off a bye and still field a top defense. The Lions are looking better defensively, but can’t generate any pressure, trading for Everson Griffen is something, but I wouldn’t count on getting to Philip Rivers. His line is keeping him pretty clean. I think the Colts slow the Lions and run through Detroit’s defense.
Indianapolis Colts 30 Detroit Lions 28
Minnesota Vikings (1-5) @ Green Bay Packers (5-1)
The Vikings are in rough shape and will have to try to match the firepower of the Packers. The Vikings defense is 3rd in the league in 20+ yard passing plays allowed (27) which is obviously a problem. The Pack is tied for 8th most 20+ yard passing plays (23). The Vikings are 30th with a -7 turnover differential. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are great threats, but pulling the ball out of Devin Cook’s hands and trusting Kirk Cousins doesn’t sounds like the recipe for an upset.
Minnesota 21 Green Bay Packers 38
NY Jets (0-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)
The Jets defense was respectable in nearly pulling the upset over Buffalo last week. So that’s…nice.
NY Jets 3 Kansas City Chiefs 31
LA Rams (5-2) @ Miami Dolphins (3-3)
ITS TUA TIME!!!!! And what a time he’ll have trying to escape Aaron Donald. Neither team is actually generating a ton of pressure; they’re both middle of the league in pressure rate. The offensive line for the Rams is much better than last year and will have to fend off the Dolphins 4th in the league in blitz rate at 38.4%. Tua has great weapons offensively, but so does Geoff. The Dolphins defense will hang in there, but it’s hard pick Tua in his first start.
LA Rams 30 Miami Dolphins 20
Pittsburg Steelers (6-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
Pittsburg is the last unbeaten team standing in the NFL. The Steelers have a number of receiving weapons on offense and the Ravens have the corners to match up. The Ravens will have their struggles against the top defense in the league, but Lamar Jackson can get out of the pocket. The Ravens are 3rd in the league with a +6 turnover differential; the Steelers sit middle-of-the-pack at +2. These are the top two blitzing teams in the NFL and top two at generating pressure, with comparable offensive line play. I’m leaning with Lamar Jackson and his ability to escape the pocket to be the difference.
Pittsburg Steelers 23 Baltimore Ravens 24
Sunday Afternoon Slate
LA Chargers (2-4) @ Denver Broncos (2-4)
Drew Lock’s has been back for two games under center….and he hasn’t been very good. The opponents have been the Patriots and the Chiefs, but Drew Lock hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his return and hasn’t looked like anything other than an average starter at this point in his short career. The Broncos defense tied for 8th with 18 sacks and their 11th in pressure rate (24%). They’ll get after Herbert. They’re 31st in the league with a -8 turnover differential. Justin Herbert needs to be more consistent and the offensive line isn’t very good, but the offense always has a chance for a big play with Herbert’s arm. The defense is 9th in pressure rate (24.6%). I think Denver struggles to move the ball and the Chargers pull away
LA Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 20
New Orleans Saints (4-2) @ Chicago Bears (5-2)
Chicago has one of the biggest disparities between offensive and defensive potential in the league. The defense is good; the offense is streaky at best. The Saints are having their own issues. Michael Thomas is still out, defense hasn’t been playing very well and they’ve barely pulled out the last three wins dating back before the week 6 bye week. They survived the Panthers last week (27-24), and pulled out an OT victory over the Chargers (30-27) and a comeback win against the Lions (35-29) prior to the bye week. They have the 4th best run defense (89.7 ypg) but they’re middle of the league in passing yards given up (238.7 ypg). They’ve given up 23+ points in every game (29.0 ppg – 24th). The Bears will probably be without WR Allen Robinson (concussion) and I’m just not sure how they win here with the offense looking as poor as it does, even with the Saints defense looking valuable.
New Orleans 20 Chicago Bears 13
San Francisco 49ers (4-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-1)
A monster divisional game. With the Rams and Cards both sitting at 5-2 (Rams game will be decided and move record to 6-2 or 5-3 prior to kickoff) SF can’t afford another loss, but a win keeps them in the thick of things. If Seattle wins they pad a nice game lead in-division. The game will be decided by San Francisco’s defense, because Seattle will absolutely give up points. SF has only given up 11 ppg in wins and over 30 ppg in losses. The defense is 5th best in the league in yards allowed (309.6) and they’re 5th in pressure rate (27%). Richard Sherman is still out and WR Deebo Samuel will miss, but the 49ers will be able to score with the Seahawk and get the stops to win.
San Francisco 49ers 34 Seattle Seahawks 31
Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys (2-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1)
Go to bed early. Cowboys will be starting Ben Dinucci, rookie out of James Madison, at QB who took over for the concussed Andy Dalton last week. Philly might have RB Miles Sanders back, possible WR Jalen Reagor will make his rookie debut. Eagles should squeeze out a win like they did last week against the Giants.
Dallas Cowboys 17 Philadelphia Eagles 24
Monday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) @ NY Giants (1-6)
The Bucs are finally starting to get healthy and the team is coming together. Chris Godwin is still out but TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Scotty Miller should be good to go. The defense is one of the best in the league. They’re second in the league in sacks (25) and tied for 2nd in interceptions (9). Daniel Jones has been looking better for the Giants and the defense has been doing a good job. They have the 7th highest pressure rate on opposing QBs (25.2%). The Bucs are 4th at 27.4%. Their last two losses have come by a combined 4 points, but you could also argue the quality opponents have all beaten them by 8+ (Rams 17-9, 49ers 36-9, Steelers 26-16).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 NY Giants 10
