-Originally published 10/24/20-
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 8-6
Overall: 56-35
Thursday, October 22nd
NY Giants (1-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-4-1)
The Giants grabbed win #1 20-19 over Washington in a big win. Daniel Jones is decent and the offense has weapons, Barkley returning next year will help. They defense is looking pretty good. Philly nearly came back and beat Baltimore on Sunday. WR Travis Fulgram is a real threat and the offense should be returning RT Lane Johnson and WR DeSean Jackson returned to practice this week….and RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz are both out after injuries suffered against Washington. The Eagles just can’t win. These are two of the worst offensive lines in the game. Defensively, the Giants are 9th in pressure percentage per drop back and the Eagles are 11th. This game should be close although wacky things can happen Thursday nights.
NY Giants 23 Philadelphia Eagles 24
Sunday, October 25th
Early Slate
Detroit Lions (2-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-5)
Atlanta finally broke through and caved in the Vikings defense for win #1. Both Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones are questionable for this week’s game against the Lions. The win may have been more indicative of the rapid decline of the Vikings more than the Falcons taking a step forward. Detroit looks halfway decent. They’re beating teams they are supposed to and D’Andre Swift looked great on the ground coming out of the bye week, the offensive line is pretty solid, and the defense can get some stops. The Lions are a team to keep an eye on.
Detroit Lions 31 Atlanta Falcons 27
Cleveland Browns (4-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-4-1)
The Browns just can’t break through to real contender status. The Steelers beat them like they were the same old crappy Browns. Baker Mayfield could be benched for Case Keenum if his horrific play continues. He’s missing open looks, throwing to the wrong side of the field and making wrong reads. The Bengals are terrible in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that’s good news for Cleveland who’ll be able to run the ball. Kareem Hunt might be out due to a rip injury, but D’ernest Johnson has looked excellent in his limited carries this season. Joe Burrow will have to avoid Myles Garrett all day and will get his shots downfield, but Cleveland will have this game unless it comes down to Bay Mayfield making plays late.
Cleveland Browns 32 Cincinnati Bengals 31
Pittsburg Steelers (5-0) @ Tennessee Titans (5-0)
Pittsburg beat Cleveland, the first compete team on their schedule, and look the part for a playoff run. They have at least 3 sacks and an interception in every game and a 38.9% pressure rate, best in the NFL by a large margin. Devin Bush tearing his ACL is a huge blow to the defense after becoming the leader of the defense in his 2nd year. The offense is cooking with Comeback player-of-the-year candidate Ben Roethlisberger and Rookie-of-the-year candidate Chase Claypool. The Titans are averaging 422 yards-per-game offensively. That’s second behind Dallas. They’re tied for 1st with a +6 turnover differential. Derrick Henry is the league’s leading rusher (588 yards) even though he’s already had a bye week, but he’ll be facing the top rushing defense that hasn’t shown much give. Ryan Tannehill is playing like a pro bowler. Both teams get after and take care of the football, Tennessee is tied for first (+6) and Pittsburg is tied for 4th (+5) in turnover differential. I believe the better defense wins here.
Pittsburg Steelers 24 Tennessee Titans 20
Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ New Orleans Saints (3-2)
Carolina’s defense is bottom of the league in pressure rate and is struggling to stop opposing offenses. Teddy B has been solid, the offensive line is top-8 in most important metrics and they are 11th in total yards. They’re good enough to always have a chance to win late. The Saints will hopefully come out of their bye week fresh and hopefully they’ll open up the offense more. Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both out. Alvin Kamara, RB Latavius Murry, Tre’Quan Smith, TE Jared Cook and probably Taysom Hill will probably see expanded roles rather than receivers down the depth chart getting more work.
Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans 28
Buffalo Bills (4-2) @ NY Jets (0-6)
Buffalo has dropped two games in a row. Josh Allen of old has been popping up and John Brown hasn’t looked the same and its affecting the offense. Hey shouldn’t have any issues with the worst team in the NFL.
Buffalo Bills 35 NY Jets 6
Dallas Cowboys (2-4) @ Washington (1-5)
The Cowboys are dead last in turnover differential (-12) by a mile (Eagles/Vikings – 31st, -7). Andy Dalton isn’t as terrible as he looked against the Cardinals, but they still lost to a team that completed 9 passes. The defense isn’t getting better, this team just has to throw to win. Dallas has the 10th best pressure rate defensively and that’s the only positive. Washington has some players on defense but the team is tanking and they’re slipping after getting blown out by Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore and the LA Rams in the past month by 14+ points in each contest. Kyle Allen isn’t the solution under center as they fell to the Giants 20-19 last weekend. They haven’t scored more than 20 points since the opening day win. Washington is quickly heading for a top-5 draft pick.
Dallas Cowboys 28 Washington 20
Green Bay Packers (4-1) @ Houston Texans (1-5)
Aaron Rogers (16/35, 160 Yds, 2 Ints) and the Packers were humbled against Tampa Bay last Sunday in a throwaway game. The Pack have 14 players that could be out for this game including the entire linebacker core. Aaron Jones and Devante Adams are both healthy that should be enough for Rogers to take out has anger after getting smoked last week. Jones should have a field day against the worst run defense in the league. The Texans are looking better under Romeo Crennel, most notable forcing their first turnovers of the year once he became coach, this should be a shootout.
Green Bay Packers 35 Houston Texans 31
Sunday Afternoon Slate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) @ Oakland Raiders (3-2)
Tampa is finally starting to around after crushing the Packers. They still have stupid penalties, but the team is getting healthier, the back end of the defense is playing better, the offensive line is playing much better protection Brady, and they’re pressuring opposing QB’s at the 4th highest rate in the league (28.3%). Oakland went into its bye week riding high at 3-2 after beating the Chiefs. Henry Ruggs is a great deep threat for the Raiders that allows them to open up the offense. The entire offensive line has been placed on the COVID list and won’t play. I don’t know they’re expected to win if that’s the case, especially with Ndamukong Suh crashing inside. If that isn’t the case, the secondary of the Raiders still can’t keep up the Bucs weapons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42 Oakland Raiders 0? 28?
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) @ Denver Broncos (2-3)
Denver won a field goal fight 18-12 against New England last week. Lock was awful (10/24, 2 Ints, 189 Yds) but the defense shut down the Patriots with pressure on half of Newton’s drop backs. Kansas City will add Le’veon Bell to the arsenal. Melvin Gordon might be out for Denver again either for sickness or possible suspension. The Broncos defense will make Patrick Mahomes work, but this game won’t be close.
Kansas City Chiefs 32 Denver Broncos 19
San Francisco 49ers (3-3) @ New England Patriots (2-3)
SF is out Raheem Mostert and possibly Jeff Wilson Jr. It’ll be the Jerick McKinnon show again behind one of the best offense lines in football. The Pats have only allowed 1 rushing touchdown this season but are allowing over 4 ypc and 119 yards rushing per game. The pass game for the 49ers is looking more complete now with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle all healthy. Defensively, the injuries are stacking up with LB Kwon Alexander, S Jaquiski Tartt, and CB Jimmie Ward all ruled out. New England looks lost if they can’t run the ball. This could be a quick game with both teams keeping the ball on the ground. The Patriots should find ways to exploit the banged up SF defense and avoid a 3-game losing streak.
San Francisco 21 New England 24
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) @ LA Chargers (1-4)
LA has looked promising for weeks but can’t manage to grab the wins. The offensive line is #1 in the league in pressure percentage allowing Justin Herbert to feel the heat on 31% of drop backs, not leaving room for mistakes. Joey Bosa has half of the team’s sacks (4), but the defense should be generating more pressure. They have players but they have glaring weaknesses too. The Jags…are the Jags. They’ll be able to throw themselves into any game and the Chargers will let them.
Jacksonville Jaguars 34 LA Chargers 35
Sunday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks (5-0) @ Arizona Cardinal (4-2)
Seattle out of its bye week will be bad news for the Cardinals. S Jamal Adams is out to allow another week to recover from a groin injury and G Mike Lupati is questionable. Since beating San Francisco Week 1, the Cardinals have wins over Washington, Dallas and the NY Jets a combined 3-15. The offense is slipping highlighted by Kyler Murray’s 9 completions in beating Dallas. On the other hand Kenyan Drake (164 yards, 2 Td) who had disappeared up to this point in the season, exploded. Hopkins and a handful of defensive players are questionable for Arizona; they may not push to play as their bye is next week.
Seattle Seahawks 35 Arizona Cardinals 24
Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears (5-1) @ LA Rams (4-2)
The two most overrated teams in the NFL. The Rams still haven’t beaten anyone outside of the NFC East and could come crashing down to earth real quick with a cross-country game in Miami coming out of a bye, Seattle, @ Tampa Bay, San Francisco, @ Arizona and across the country again on a short week for Thursday night football in New England the next chunk of the schedule. Chicago has been winning despite ranking at the bottom of the league in most offensive statistical categories. They have the New Orleans, @ Tennessee, Minnesota, @ Green Bay in the coming month. Both teams will need a big win here before difficult roads ahead. I’m going with the more compete offense and the team with Aaron Donald, the league leader in sacks (7.5).
Chicago Bears 28 LA Rams 30
