-Originally published 10/16/20-
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 8-6
Overall: 48-29
Sunday, October 18th
Early Slate
Houston Texans (1-4) @ Tennessee Titans (4-0)
Practice? Who needs practice? Not the Titans as they crushed the Buffalo Bills 42-16 after numerous Covid interruptions. Ryan Tannehill looks like a top QB, A. J. Brown has been reintegrated into the offense and Derrek Henry is stiff-arming people into next week. Houston isn’t good. The game play could improve under Romeo Crenne, but surviving the Jags isn’t something to get too excited about. The defense forced its first turnover of the season last Sunday and Jacksonville’s run game was held to 75 yards. The Titans have a tough turnaround from Tuesday to Sunday, but they won’t have to travel. I think the Titans win again with Henry running through the Texans front.
Houston Texans 23 Tennessee Titans 24
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
Joe Burrow is getting hit (50), sacked (22), and pressured (65) more than anyone else in the NFL. The Bengals were rightly hammered by the Ravens. Indianapolis has a great defense despite the points given up to the Browns in a 32-23 loss. The offense is hampered severely by Philip River’s sever drop off that’s lead to some questioning in whether or not he’ll be benched. He can’t push the ball down the field and he can produce when the Colts need to pass to win the game. This game lines up nicely for the Colts. They can pressure Burrow, the secondary should match up well and they’ll be able to keep the ball out of Rivers hands and be able to run the ball down the Bengals throats.
Cincinnati Bengals 23 Indianapolis Colts 28
Atlanta Falcons (0-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-4)
The Falcons are 31st in yards allowed per game (446) and points allowed (32.2). Firing Dan Quinn can only make things better. The Vikings are show life but absolutely blew an opportunity to beat Seattle Sunday night. The Vikings defense is bottom-5 in the league themselves. The Falcons are 32nd (25) in 20+ yard plays given up this season and the Vikings are 30th (21). Davin Cook has a groin injury that pulled him out of the Seattle game, but hopefully he’ll be able to go against the Falcons. Matt Ryan hasn’t been able to get it done and the passing game tis the only thing Atlanta has going for it right now, Minnesota should take this whether Cooks plays or not.
Atlanta Falcons 21 Minnesota Vikings 24
Denver Broncos (1-3) @ New England Patriots (2-0)
The Pats could be without Cam Newton again Sunday but either Brian Hoyer or probable starter Jarrett Stidham should be plenty to beat the Broncos. The Patriots were one yard away from beating Seattle and had several mistakes, dropped interceptions, and committed double the penalty total on the season against the Chiefs and were still in the game until they handed Tyrann Mathieu a pick-6. Had Cam played the Patriots would have probably beaten the Chiefs. Bill Belichick won’t have as much trouble planning to defend Brett Rypien as he did Mahomes. Add WR KJ Hamler and TE Noah Fant to the injuries Denver has suffered on offense.
Denver Broncos 10 New England Patriots 21
Washington (1-4) @ NY Giants (0-5)
Washington has an opportunity to win more games with a new QB under center. New York scored 37 points combined in the first four games of the season and 34 points against the horrible Cowboys offense and still couldn’t win a game where Dak Prescott left in the 2nd half. I’m not a big fan of Kyle Allen, but Alex Smith at QB could help the Washington offense significantly. He’s competent, doesn’t miss easy throws and has a couple weapons in Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and J.D McKissic to work with. Washington averages 3 sacks per-game defensively and isn’t going to have to do much to stump the Giants.
Washington 24 NY Giants 17
Baltimore Ravens (4-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-3-1)
The Eagles had an opportunity to beat the Steelers last week but they still suck. Baltimore will continue to put pressure on Carson Wentz who is 2nd in sacks taken (19) this season and leads the league in interceptions (9). The Eagles are tied for 31st with a -6 turnover differential. The Ravens are 5th in sacks (16). Lamar Jackson isn’t putting up the numbers he was last season. He’s 24th in completion percentage, 25th in passing yards, 23rd in yards-per-attempt, and he’s barely hanging in the top-half of the league in passing touchdowns. He’s still the lead rusher (47.6) for a team averaging 160 rushing yards-per-game. The Ravens should have a field day here tearing apart the Eales.
Baltimore Ravens 31 Philadelphia Eagles 17
Cleveland Browns (4-1) @ Pittsburg Steelers (4-0)
Cleveland is 1st in the NFL with a +6 turnover differential and they lead the league with 12 takeaways. They’re first in the NFL in rushing yards (188.4) by over 8 per-game ahead of New England and almost 30 yards more than Baltimore, currently 3rd in rushing yards. Baker Mayfield hasn’t been very impressive but he’s done enough with the weapons around him. The Steelers run defense has been best in the league allowing only 64 yards-per-game, 1st in the league. It’ll be strength versus strength. The combined record of the Steelers opponents is 3-15-1 and they’ve been played close. Despite adding Chase Claypool’s (4 touchdown game last week) to the fleet of wide receiver options for the Steelers, this is a bottom-10 offensive. I think the Browns find a way to push through here.
Cleveland Browns 27 Pittsburg Steelers 24
Chicago Bears (4-1) @ Carolina Panthers (3-2)
Carolina looks like a good team under Matt Rhule. The offense is top-5 behind Teddy 2 gloves. The Bears are winning, but struggle to run the ball and Nick Foles isn’t an excellent upgrade at QB. That being said, David Montgomery should get plenty of totes against this defense after getting bottled up last week. With Foles under center the Bears have been more pass-happy and have the ability to race one of the best passing offenses in the league. The Bears should be able to put pressure on the Panthers and the Bears will be able to move the ball.
Chicago Bears 27 Carolina Panthers 24
Detroit Lions (1-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
Jacksonville isn’t a good football team, the real question, is Detroit any better? Both of these head coaches will be gone at the end of the year. The rosters will cleared out. Maybe both QBs will return as starters next season. A week off for the Lions gave them an opportunity to recalibrate after losing to the Saints and allowed Golladay to get healthy. The defense isn’t nearly where it should be under Matt Patricia. The Lions are coming out of their bye week but are still 27th in run defense. The Jags are 28th. Injuries are stacking up for the Jags with WR DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault questionable and Tyler Eifert possibly out as well. If the Lions can’t come out of the bye week and beat one of the worst teams in the league, they might just be in fair company.
Detroit Lions 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 28
Sunday Afternoon Slate
NY Jets (0-5) @ Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Jets: 0-5 for the first time since 1996. They’ve lost every game by 9 or more points. They’ve allowed 27 or more points in every game. They aren’t getting better. Bryan Flores has the Dolphins trending in the right direction. They absolutely destroyed a well-coached San Francisco team 43-17. Ryan Fitzpatrick is holding serve at QB under Tua is ready. Miles Gaskin is fine at running back for now and the defense looked excellent last week. The ‘Fins will get to .500 here.
NY Jets 17 Miami Dolphins 30
Green Bay Packers (4-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Tampa Bay is still having issues with penalties, health, and….remembering what down it is. Aaron Rogers should have top receiver Davante Addams back and Aaron Jones is one of the best running backs in the league and he’s 5th in the league (374) rushing despite playing one fewer week. The Packers defense is in a large group that’s present but can be exploited by any offense. Tampa Bay might be the healthiest they’ve been all season for this game. The front seven can’t be run on and the back end can be thrown on and Aaron Rodgers will be happy to oblige. Healthy Green Bay is better than healthy Tampa Bay right now.
Green Bay Packers 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32
Sunday Night Football
LA Rams (4-1) @ SF 49ers (2-3)
San Francisco’s getting heathy offensively but the defense is the problem. The Dolphins dropped 40 points on them and Ryan Fitzpatrick had a field day. LA’s offensive line is suspect but the 49ers may not be able to generate enough pressure to take full advantage and the Rams should be able to attack the secondary, even if Richard Sherman returns. Jimmy G played an awful game last week and certainly can’t be any worse. Aaron Donald is the league leader in sacks (7.5) and one of the better defenses in the league in terms of yardage and points given up. The Rams four wins have come in a sweep over the dreadful NFC East with a combined 4-15-1 record and three of the worst offenses in the Eagles, Giants and Washington. I’m not sure they’re for real yet.
LA Rams 27 SF 49ers 20
Monday Night Football, October 19th
Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) @ Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Buffalo and Kansas City both took their lumps last weekend. The Chiefs fell to the Raiders who were able to mix defensive fronts to hide their issues in the secondary. Tennessee destroyed the Bills after numerous missed practices and positive Covid tests. Buffalo’s rush offense has been surprisingly stagnant outside of Josh Allen himself so the Bills may not be able to exploit the Chiefs poor run defense. Josh Allen will be coming off a short week and will have to shake off his poor performance against the Titans quick to duel with Kansas City. Tre’Davious White might be out at CB again, part of the problem Thursday night, and Mahomes will pick the secondary apart if he’s out. KC is tied for the 4th best turnover differential (+5) while the Bills surprising have a negative (-2) differential. Kansas City Chiefs 32 Buffalo Bills 27
Arizona Cardinals (3-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
Andy Dalton will man the wheel for the Cowboys until Dak can safely return. Dallas showed just how terrible the defense was by allowing the Giants nearly double their scoring total for the season last week. It’s possible that Ezekiel Elliot (89 Att, 364 Rush/Yds, 5 Yds/Rush) sees more touches on the ground, but Dalton is a capable starting quarterback so the pass plan may stay in place. Kyler Murry and the Cards aren’t spectacular, but the Cards will push the pace and move the ball at will. The defense has made strides since last season. Dallas has the worst turnover margin in the league (-8). If Dak can’t pull the Cowboys out of the fire with these weapons, I’m not sure that Dalton can either.
Arizona Cardinals 38 Dallas Cowboys 34
