-Originally published 10/7/20-
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Overall: 40-23
Thursday, October 8th
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) @ Chicago Bears (3-1)
Tom Brady got cooking against the Chargers and now has over 1100 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. Add RB LeSean McCoy and WR Mike Evans to the growing list of injured skill position players with WR Chris Godwin, TE O.J. Howard, RB Leonard Fournette. Thankfully the Bucs will never be out of running backs and Ronald Jones averaged 5.6 yards-per-carry against the Bolts and rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn could get more work against the Bears. The starting receivers Thursday could be Scotty Miller (5 Rec, 83 Yds, 1 Td-against LAC) and Justin Watson (4 Rec, 40 Yds-against LAC) with more targets for TE Cameron Brate and “blocking” TE Rob Gronkowski.
The Bucs offense is holding opponents to 64 rushing yards-per-game and has logged 14 sacks. The Bears only managed 28 yards on the ground against the Colts last week in a close loss. Nick Foles looks average. The defense is giving up 115 ypg on the ground and is middle-of-pack in the NFL and Chicago is-1 in turnover differential. The bears have weapons in Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, TE Jimmy Graham, and the surprise rookie 5th rounder out of Tulane, Darnell Mooney. Foles should able to keep the game in reach, especially with the injuries the Bucs are enduring but the Bucs should ride Ronald Jones to victory. These teams are going opposite directions.
Tampa Bay 27 Chicago Bears 21
Sunday, October 11th
Early Slate
Carolina Panthers (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (0-3)
Carolina looks competent behind new coach Matt Rhule. The defense was able to contain Kyler Murry last week, they’ve slowly become a top-10 run defense and they have a +2 turnover differential. Teddy Bridgewater is completing over 73% of his passes and he’s 10th in average yards-per-attempt. Mike Davis looks like a real running back and decent sub for Christian McCaffrey.
The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and couldn’t make a stand against the Packers Monday night. Now the offense is looking questionable with Julio Jones banged up again and the Falcons struggling to move the ball against the Packers banged up secondary. This is a golden opportunity for the Panthers to get over .500. The Falcons might be one of the worst five teams in the NFL.
Carolina Panthers 31 Atlanta Falcons 24
Buffalo Bills (4-0) @ Tennessee Titans (3-0)
Josh Allen (1,326 Yds, 12 TDs, 1 Int, 70.9% Comp) has the Bills in Super Bowl contention. He’s 2nd in passing yards, 9th in completion percentage, 2nd in average yards per attempt (9.0), 2nd in passing touchdowns, 2nd in total touchdowns, 3rd in QBR (87.1). He still falls asleep at the wheel sometimes, such as when the Rams nearly came back and beat them, but he’s evolving into a star. Tennessee is 3-0 by a combined 6 point victory margin over teams with a combined 3-9 record. The defense would probably be bottom half of the league in passing and rushing yards allowed had they played last week. Two week off should allow A.J Brown to return to action. The play action Ryan Tannehill won’t be as effective with Derrick Henry running into the Bills solid run defense. The bye week could have helped the Titans prepare but the Bills are the better team here.
Buffalo Bills 34 Tennessee Titans 24
LV Raiders (2-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
The Raiders defense is going to lose them games. Derek Carr is completing over 73% of his passes and still hasn’t thrown an interception (8 TDs), but the Raiders will have to abandon Josh Jacobs every here as the secondary won’t be slowing down Patrick Mahomes. LV has a -4 turnover differential despite Carr’s zero interceptions on the years, because they don’t turn the ball over defensively. The defense is bottom-10 in the league and won’t put up much resistance.
Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception either and will be happy to pick on a secondary not coached by Bill Belichick after struggling to move the ball on Monday night. The defense is one of the best rushing defenses in the league despite giving up 185 yards to the Patriots. They’ve been doing a good job getting pressure on opposing QBs as well. It would help LV if they had any receiver help, but Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Rico Gafford are all in danger of missing the game.
LV Raiders 24 Kansas City Chiefs 38
Arizona Cardinals (2-2) @ NY Jets (0-4) The Jets only lost by 9 last week. They’re losing by an average score of 32-16. They’re giving up 239+ passing yards and 129+ rushing ypg and averaging 179.5 passing and 98.5 rushing. They’re converting on roughly 1/3 of 3rd downs and allowing opponents to convert close to 50%. The statistical discrepancies in most areas are astounding and will only get worse as the season continues. Kyle Murry is looking downright awful the past two weeks and needs this game to get right. The defense needs to find out how to force turnovers and will won’t have to do much to slow down the Jets. Arizona has to show consistency offensively, but they shouldn’t lose here.
Arizona Cardinals 24 NY Jets 17
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) @ Pittsburg Steelers (3-0)
The NFC East leading Eagles drag their marry little group of broken toys to Pittsburg where the Steelers have had two weeks rest. Pittsburg’s receiver group of JuJu, Diontae Johnson, James Washington, and Chase Claypool is deep, is deep, talented, and healthy. One of those can’t describe the Eagles receiving core, I’ll let you decide which. DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside will probably all be out. The Eagles managed to beat the 49ers despite being outgained 417-267 in total yards last weekend. It did take two backup QBs and a 3-1 turnover advantage for the Eagles to manage a win however. The Steelers will get pressure on the Eagles banged up offensive line and the secondary will smother whatever scrubs the Eagles field.
Philadelphia Eagles 13 Pittsburg Steelers 24
LA Rams (3-1) @ Washington (1-3)
Washington is using rookie Antonio Gibson as the lead back and in the passing game. Terry McLaurin caught 10 balls for 118 yards last week. That sums up the highlights for the Washington offense. Rookie Chase Young will be out again on the defense side of the ball, but the unit has 14 sacks, 5 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles. Kyle Allen or Alex Smith could start under center with Ron Rivera threatening to take Haskins job from him and the team could turnaround with good quarterback play. Don’t get too excited about the Rams. They’re beating up on the horrific NFC East. Wins over Dallas, Philadelphia and the NY Giants sandwiched in between a shootout loss to the Bills is how the schedule thus far has read. A Washington win will complete the division sweep for the Rams this week. LA struggled against the Giants last week as the powerful run game was held to 58 yards and Geoff was held to 200 passing.
The Rams defense crushed the Giants recording 5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 9 QB pressures. They’ll get press on the QB for Washington, but the Rams offensive line will have issues of their own.
LA Rams 20 Washington 10
Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Lamar Jackson has voice displeasure with his offense and that’s bad news for the Bengals bottom-5 run defense. The pass defense is middle-of-the-league but that won’t matter if the Ravens run it down their throat. Cincinnati’s offensive line is the worst in the league and Joe Burrow has been lucky to get away the passes he does, but he could get bloodied in Baltimore this week. Joe Burrow currently has 1,196 yards of total offense and 7 touchdowns compared to 1,005 yards and 8 touchdowns for Lamar to put in perspective Joe Burrows explosion and the more modest yardage for Lamar. The defense isn’t as top notch; they’re bottom of the league in pass yards allowed so we’ll see how entertaining Burrow can keep it.
Cincinnati Bengals 20 Baltimore 28
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) @ Houston Texans (0-4)
Bill O Brian was dumped Monday after which bags more questions than answers. The Texans had to know the opening schedule (Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers, Vikings) was going to produce many wins, even in the NFL where anything could happen. So why fire O Brian now? Why not let him finish out the season? If you knew this was a possibility, why not fire him before he traded DeAndre Hopkins? Why not fire him before the season and allow (the newly paid) Deshaun Watson to work the whole season with a new head coach, rather than chance midway through the season? If you knew the season was going to possibly be a bust anyways, wouldn’t you at least want leadership in place to guide your superstar QB going forward? With that being said, they have the worst run defense and ran bottom-10 in total yards allowed. They have a -5 turnover differential, 30th in the league because they forced zero turnovers defensively. Jacksonville and Houston are right next to each other in the rankings, at 399.5 and 393.3 yards allowed per game defensively. The Jaguars are actually fielding the better QB statistically, the better running back in undrafted James Robinson and possibly the better receiving core. It might be wild, but I’m taking the slightly more competent Jags here.
Jacksonville Jaguars 34 Houston Texans 32
Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ SF 49ers (2-2)
Jimmy Garoppolo could be out another week for SF and the backup play of Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard wasn’t stellar. More injuries have racked up on the defensive side of the ball as newly signed DE will go to IR with a biceps tear and 4 CBs were listed on the injury report Monday. George Kittle was phenomenal (15 Rec, 183 Yds, 1 Td) in his return to action and Deebo Samuel (3 Rec, 35 Yds) should see his role expand. The Dolphins have been competitive in another loss to a strong offense last week. Fitzpatrick had 362 total yards and a rushing touchdown but threw 2 picks. Close games or not, we’ve got to be getting closer to seeing Tua. The defense is one of the worst in the league in yards allowed but Bryan Flores has this team in every game. Both teams are essentially playing backup QBs, with the injuries to the 49ers it’s hard to tell what kind of team they’ll actually field on Sunday. They’ll need better QB play or another poor performance by Fitzpatrick to win.
Miami Dolphins 14 SF 49ers 24
Indianapolis Colts (3-1) @ Cleveland Browns (3-1)
Phillip Rivers hasn’t been very good but he’ll have to make plays against the Browns. The Colts are #2 passing defense, #4 rushing defense, #1 points-per-game (14), and tied for the 4th best turnover differential at +4. The Browns have a +6 turnover differential, best in the league. They have a Top 10 rush defense and one of the worst passing defenses in the league. That’s in part the young secondary and partially the powerful offenses they’ve played. Cleveland’s pass rush will be matched up against one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and the secondary will have force Rivers to make tough throws. Cleveland’s offense will have to fight for every yard and Baker Mayfield will have to make some throws to move the ball. Nick Chubb may not be missed much with Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson in the backfield. Hunt has shown already he’s a top back and Johnson ran for 100 yards in Chubbs absence against Dallas. The opportunities for each of these teams to win may come down to the players on offense they try to hide, the quarterbacks. Neither Philip Rivers nor Baker Mayfield has played well, but both will have to step up to have a shot in this big game.
Indianapolis Colts 24 Cleveland Browns 23
NY Giants (0-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-3)
Dallas has the 2nd worst defense in the league. They can’t stop anyone, but thankfully have the offensive weapons to play every game as a shootout. The Giants aren’t good and they’ve only score 3 touchdowns on the year. They aren’t the worst team defensively, they have a top-10 passing defense, but the offense is just atrocious. Dallas does have a league worst -7 turnover differential and Ezekiel Elliot has completely disappeared on the ground, only averaging 68.3 rushing yards-per-game. NY should absolutely double their touchdown total for the year, but they won’t beat the Cowboys with the #2 offense, the top QB in passing yards and all the weapons the Cowboys can put on the field. Amari Cooper, Cee Dee Lamp, Michael Gallap and TE Dalton Schultz are going to be too much to cover.
NY Giants 21 Dallas Cowboys 35
Denver Broncos (1-3) @ New England Patriots (2-0)
The Pats could be without Cam Newton again Sunday but either Brian Hoyer or probable starter Jarrett Stidham should be plenty to beat the Broncos. The Patriots were one yard away from beating Seattle and had several mistakes, dropped interceptions, and committed double the penalty total on the season against the Chiefs and were still in the game until they handed Tyrann Mathieu a pick-6. Had Cam played the Patriots would have probably beaten the Chiefs. Bill Belichick won’t have as much trouble planning to defend Brett Rypien as he did Mahomes. Add WR KJ Hamler and TE Noah Fant to the injuries Denver has suffered on offense.
Denver Broncos 10 New England Patriots 21
Sunday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings (1-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-0)
Seattle given up the most yards in league and is 3rd in total offense. Russell Wilson is up to 16 touchdowns and 2 Interceptions on the year with a 75% completion percentage and 1,285 passing yards. He’s averaging 9.4 ypp. If Seattle’s defense had a strength, it would be the run defense holding teams to under 76 ypg and 3.4 ypc. The strength of the Vikings the 5th ranked run offense behind the league’s leading rusher Dalvin Cook (424 Yds, 5.7 Avg, 6 Tds). Kirk Cousins has been very good but he finally found rookie Justin Jefferson (16 Rec, 348 Yds, 21.8 Avg, 1 Td). Both Jefferson and Adam Thielen (20 Rec, 284 Yds, 14.2 Avg, 4 Tds) will see lots of work as Cousins tries to keep up with the Seahawks. The Vikings defense is bottom-5 in terms of yards allowed and hasn’t been impressive either. Wilson shouldn’t have much trouble here
Minnesota Vikings 28 Seattle Seahawks 38
Monday Night Football
LA Chargers (1-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Herbert has looked good as a starting quarterback. The Chargers have a -4 turnover differential and have given up too many yards for the talent in the secondary, but they are still in every game. They lost in overtime to the Chiefs, nearly came back against the Panthers and gave up a lead to the Buccaneers. Keenan Allen is 3rd in the NFL in receptions (32) and Alvin Kamara is 4th (30). With Austin Ekeler out and Mike Williams, Michael Thomas, Jared Cook all questionable they’ll continue to be heavy volume targets in this game. The Saints have quietly put together one a decent defense. Offensively Emmanuel Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith are getting more involved. This should be an excellent game, but the Saints looked good against the Lions last week and with both sides of the ball rounding into shape, the return of Michael Thomas should push the Saints back towards Super Bowl contenders.
LA Chargers 24 New Orleans Saints 27
