-Originally published 10/3/20-
*Tennessee Titans and Pittsburg Steelers has been postponed due to positive Covid test on the Titans staff and roster.
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Overall: 30-18
Thursday Night Football – October 1st
Denver Broncos (0-3) @ NY Jets (0-3)
Over under on the game is 40 points. I’m not sure how either offense gets near three touchdowns. The Jets are dead last in total offense. Le’veon Bell is still out and Jemison Crowder probably will be too. Sam Darnold might be a decent QB, but he’s surrounded by ineptitude and part of the problem in New York. The Broncos are the first (and hopefully only) team that’s played three quarterbacks this season. Add defensive standout Jurrell Casey to Drew Lock, Phillip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton and Von Miller as important players out for the Broncos. Blake Bortles will probably start at QB (QB #4 for those keeping count at home). If the Jets can’t manage a win her over the depleted Broncos, despite some skill positon injuries of their own, they might not win a game this year….I’m still hesitant to pick them, I’m better on the veteran Bortles and the not-completely incompetent Broncos coaching staff to figure it out.
Denver Broncos 20 NY Jets 17
Sunday Afternoon Early Slate
Indianapolis Colts (2-1) @ Chicago Bears (3-0)
Nick Foles tossed three touchdowns in place of Mitch Trubisky last week and the offense should really open up with him at the helm. Ironically he averaged 6.5 yards per pass, the same as Trubisky on the year, but Foles is better throwing the ball downfield. The Bears defense hasn’t looked as good as expected, but the Colts defense is one of the best in the league. It’s the best passing defense, top-5 run defense and the offense is in the top half of the league. They’re +3 in turnover margin and Philip Rivers hasn’t looked great, but he’s completing 78% of his passes and only been sacked twice as the Colts lean on the ground game. They’ve played bad teams in Jacksonville, Minnesota, and the Jets, but I think the Colts are hard to beat as long as they aren’t relying on Rivers to throw to victory.
Indianapolis Colts 24 Chicago Bears 22
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-1)
Joe Burrow is 2nd in the NFL in passing attempts (141) behind only Dak Prescott (143). He’s completing 64.5% of his passes, currently 23rd in the league but he’ll rank higher once percentages settle throughout the year, he’s only had two turnovers, and he’s been sacked a whopping 14 times. He’ll have an opportunity to wheel-and-deal to all his targets against the Jags secondary. Jacksonville doesn’t have glaring weaknesses, but they don’t have great strengths. They just aren’t a very good team and they were humbled by the Dolphins last Thursday night. Jacksonville has been more efficient on 3rd down conversions and has been able to get the run game going behind undrafted rookie James Robinson. I think the Jags will be able to move to .500. DJ Chark is expected to return in a “limited” capacity after missing the Dolphins game last week. Even in a limited role he’ll be another weapon for Minshew.
Jacksonville Jags 34 Cincinnati Bengals 31
Cleveland Browns (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
Dak Prescott leads the league in passing attempts (143), yet the team is one weird onside kick away from being 0-3. The defense is bottom 3rd in the league and really might be worse than the numbers state. The offense is #1 in total yards in the NFL but 8th in points-per-game. The Cowboys have played games against three teams ahead of them in scoring in Seattle (2nd), Atlanta (6th) and the Rams (7th). Cleveland will look to establish the run with Chubb and Hunt and put pressure on the quarterback defensively with its push rush. The Browns have a +3 turnover margin and have looked competent outside of the throwaway opening game loss to the Ravens. The Browns are better if Baker Mayfield hands the ball off and runs the clock. This should be one of the best games of the week, but I think the Cowboys offense is too much for the Browns secondary.
Cleveland Browns 31 Dallas Cowboys 35
New Orleans Saints (1-2) @ Detroit Lions (1-2)
The Detroit Lions offense should open up more with Kenny Golladay back from injury and the run game has been surprisingly effective behind Adrian Peterson, but the Lions still haven’t lit up the scoreboard. They’re only converting on 40% of third downs. The defense is bottom-5 in total yards allowed, but isn’t giving up too many points. Opponents are only converting about 36% of 3rd downs. The Saints offense would be non-existent without Alvin Kamara. He’s drawing 31% of Drew Bree’s targets per Pro Football Focus and his 6 touchdowns on the season are the most by a non-quarterback in the NFL. Michael Thomas is participating in limited practice but isn’t a sure thing for Sunday. Matthew Stafford is actually the best quarterback in this matchup and potentially the more explosive offense. The Lions have a great chance to move to .500, especially if CB Desmond Trufant is able to return.
New Orleans Saints 21 Detroit Lions 24
Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2)
Russell Wilson (925 Yds, 14 Tds, 1 Int, 76.7% Comp) is probably the front running for MVP, just ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen, and he’s the sole reason the Seahawks are competitive. Tyler Lockett is receiving 31% of the team’s targets, 4th highest volume in the league, and DK Metcalf is a reliable #2. Defensively, the Seahawks have the 2nd best run defense, but they have the worst pass offense in the league giving up 430 yards-per-game. The Miamian Dolphins have had 10 days to prepare for Wilson since winning against Jacksonville on Thursday Night Football. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still explosive when he’s on and the team has some pieces to grow, but the offensive line is still one of the worst in the league and the defense is going to get torched by Russell Wilson. The Dolphins secondary is going to be missing CB Byron Jones, while Seattle will be down CB Quinton Dunbar and S Jamal Adams. This could be a surprising Russell Wilson/Ryan Fitzpatrick shootout where both teams thrown for 350 yards.
Seattle Seahawks 38 Miami Dolphins 28
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Washington (1-2)
Washington looked great squashing the Eagles in week 1, but they’ve returned to earth and look like one of the worse teams in the league. Dwayne Haskins is only completing 56% of his passes and the team is 30th in total offense. Statistically they’re one of the best passing defense but they’re getting killed one the ground late as both losses have been by a couple touchdowns. They Ravens didn’t look good against the speed of Kansas City’s receivers last week and Mahomes picked them apart, but this is still one of, if not the second best team in the league. This is a perfect “get right” game for the Ravens after having an off-game offensively against the Chiefs.
Baltimore Ravens 31 Washington 17
LA Chargers (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Tom Brady should get a real test from this LA Chargers defense. RB Leonard Fournette appeared ready to take the starting running back role, but he’s out as is WR Chris Goodwin for the 2nd game this early season. WR Scotty Miller wasn’t a sure thing, but he should be ready to play opposite Mike Evens with Goodwin out. The Panthers may have gotten up on the Chargers early last week, but the Bolts made a comeback and were one bobbled pitch from winning. The Chargers secondary is still probably the best in the league and removing one of Brady’s top targets from the equation allows them to focus on Evans. Tampa’s offensive line will have issues with Joey Bosa, who returned to full practice at the end of the week. Justin Herbert has looked like a rookie at times, but he looks like a starting QB. The already fragile offensive line is going to be down two starters and WR Mike Williams will be out with a hamstring issue as well. Keenan Allen has been receiving 33% of the team’s targets, 2nd highest volume in the league, and figures to get more on Sunday. Tampa has the best run defense in the league and one of the best defenses period. The Chargers haven’t scored over 20 points yet this season and Bucs could get after Herbert with the offensive line injuries. I expect the Buccaneers to gradually pull away.
LA Chargers 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
Arizona Cardinals (2-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Kyler Murry had his first real struggles of the season against the Lions last week, but he’ll have an opportunity against the Panthers defense that’s only logged two sacks and two interceptions on the season and will struggle to slow the Cards offense. DeAndre Hopkins leads the NFL with 37% target volume for the Cards and he’ll have an opportunity to do real damage Sunday. Arizona had the worst defense in the league last season but they’ve been surprising effective so far this year. They’re 5th in the league in sacks (11) and rank middle of the pack statistically in yards allowed. Teddy Bridgewater is quietly 3th in completion percentage (74%) and 7th in passing yards (871 Yards) but only has 2 touchdowns on the year. Carolina is allowing opponents to convert on over 56% over third downs while only converting 44% of their own and the Cards are holding opponents to less than 30% conversion rate. The Panthers should be 0-3 and I think the Cards win big here.
Arizona Cardinals 31 Carolina Panthers 20
Minnesota Vikings (0-3) @ Houston Texans (0-3)
The Vikings are having all kinds of issues defensively. They’re near the bottom of the league in total yards allowed, plays of 40+ yards allowed, opposing QB completions percentage, average yards per passing attempt and rushing yards allowed. Kirk Cousin is completing 59% of his passes and has 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. The positive side is that Houston’s secondary isn’t great and rookie WR Justin Jefferson had his first big game last week and will look be a weapon again opposite Adam Thielen for Cousins. Cook is the centerpiece of the offense and the Texans currently have the worst run defense in the NFL. With that being said, the Texans statics are going to be all out of wack after playing the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers, but Cook is the best back out of that group that they’ve faced so far. DeShaun Watson will probably be without Will Fuller, he’s suffering from a hamstring issue, but its hard to get a handle on the Texans capabilities. They were up on the Steelers last weekend, but couldn’t close the game. I think Minnesota gets the offense going and pulls the upset.
Minnesota Vikings 35 Houston Texans 34
Sunday Afternoon Slate
NY Giants (0-3) @ LA Rams (2-1)
The Rams are 3rd in the league in total yards and they’re averaging almost 30 points per game. They’re converting on over 56% of 3rd downs. Cam Akers Will be out but the Rams are having success with whoever they but at running back. The Giants are just awful offensively. Daniel Jones is the team’s leading rusher and has twice as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (2). They’ve only scored 38 total points. Defensively, the Giants are halfway decent and able to get pressure on opponents. LA should be able to shut down the Giants anemic offense.
NY Giants 10 LA Rams 21
Patriots (2-1) @ Chiefs (3-0)
The Chiefs destroyed the Ravens on Monday Night Football and it wasn’t even close. It was as bad a game as the Ravens could play offensively and Patrick Mahomes picked the defense apart. We’ll see contrasting styles here. The Patriots lead the NFL in rushing while the Chiefs are happy to use Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but prefer to let Mahomes air it out. The Chiefs defense was excellent against the Ravens last week, but probably punched above its weight. The Pats will be able to run on the Chiefs and keep the ball out of Mahomes hands, similar to the playoff loss two years ago. If Cam Netwon plays in this game I’m going Pats with the upset, if he doesn’t and the Pats lose him as a battering ram on the goal line I’m going Chiefs.
Cam in-Patriots, Cam out-Chiefs
Buffalo Bills (3-0) @ LV Raiders (2-1)
Josh Allen (1,038 Yds, 10 Td, 1 Int, 71% Comp, 84 rush/yds, 2 rush/tds) pulled the Bills out of the fire last week after nearly squandering a huge lead to the LA Rams. He looks reborn this season averaging 330 passing yards per-game. Stephan Diggs (20 Rec, 288 Yds, 2 Tds), John Brown (10 Rec, 152 Yds, 2 Tds) and now Cole Beasly (15 Rec, 228 Yds) are all explosive weapons that the Raiders defense is not equipped to deal with. The Bills are averaing 31 points-per-game and only allowing 19.3. Derek Carr is completing 74% of his passes and hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season. His young receivers Bryan Edwards and Henry Rugg can’t stay on the field making Hunter Renfrow the top target (14 Tgs, 11 Rec, 142 Yds, 1 Td) outside of tightend Darren Waller (28 Tgs, 20 Rec, 159 Yds, 1 Td). Josh Jacobs is slowing down after exploding in week one. The Raiders just aren’t very good. Offensively the weapons are limited and the defense has young pieces but it’s very good. The Bills aren’t ready to be slowed down yet.
Buffalo Bills 34 LV Raiders 21
Sunday Night FootballPhiladelphia Eagles (0-2-1) @ SF 49ers (2-1)
A Battle between two of the most banged up teams in the NFL. On a positive note for 49ers, TE George Kittle should be returned to the field and WR Deebo Samuel should be making his season debut. Nick Mullens will retun at QB in place of Jimmy G and has been reliable. The Eagles are so demolished one receiver on the 53-man roster practiced at one point this week and DeSean Jackson, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Alshon Jeffery are all probably out for this game. LT Jason Peters will be heading to IR. Things could go south real quick for the Eagles after a deflating tie last week that visibly had the team frustrated that they didn’t push for the win. Kyle Shanahan continues to scheme up with the personal that’s available to him and I don’t see how the Eagles put themselves out of a hole here.
Philadelphia Eagles 20 49ers 24
Monday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (3-0)
Two high powered offense that are struggling to make stops defensively will light up MNF. The Falcons are giving up 36 ppg and the Packers are giving up 28. Packers will be without Allen Lazard for the foreseeable future with a core injury and possibly DeVante Adams. Julio Jones will probably be sidelined for the Falcons. Calvin Ridley has stepped into the #1 role for the Falcons and is 2nd in the league in receiving yards (349) and has 21 receptions and 4 touchdowns. He’s averaging 16.6 yards per reception. Russell Gage will be the #2 after recovering from a concussion and Todd Gurly may finally get involved in the passing game. Aaron Jones for the Packers leads the league with 303 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns. Green Bay is just the better team at this point in the season. It’s possible the Falcons get things back on track here and just out-throw the Packers with the injury’s to Green Bay’s receiving core but that isn’t likely.
Atlanta Falcons 31 Green Bay 35