-Originally published 9/24/20-
Week 3 NFL Picks
We have a more balance slated this week with five afternoon games and eight early games. The afternoon slate isn’t rewarding however, with Jets, Panthers, and Broncos all playing games in the late afternoon window and and in good shape to be a combined 0-9 by the time Sunday evening rolls around. The early slate has a slew of great games. Bears/Falcons, Rams/Bills, Raiders/Patriots, Texans/Steelers, and possibly Bengals/Eagles should all be good watches.
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Overall: 21-11
Thursday, September 24th
Miami Dolphins (0-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
Gardnew Minshew and the Jags offense looks like an every week passing game threat. Through two weeks he has 723 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 75.4% completion percentage versus a 66% expected completion percentage per nfl.com nextgenstats. The defense kept slowed Derrick Henry, but the secondary one of the worst in the league. The Dolphins were within striking distance of both the Patriot in week 1 and the Bills last week. The defense still needs to grow, the offensive line is still one of the worst in the league and Ryan Fitzpatrick is still reliably erratic. The ‘Fins have better corners, but Minshew is the better quarterback. This could be a Minshew/Fitz shootout in a battle of the beard v the mustache.
Miami Dolphins 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 31
Sunday, September 27th
Early Slate
Chicago Bears (2-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (0-2)
Matt Ryan has thrown for 723 Yards, 2nd in the NFL behind Josh Allen (729) and he’s 2nd (behind Joe Burrow-97) in the league in passing attempts (90). The secondary can’t stop anyone, inviting the perfectly average Mitchell Trubisky (432 Yds, 5 TDs, 2 INTs, 59.4% Completion, 59% Expected Completion Percentage) to have a career day. The Bears defense is not as intimidating as expected. They’ve been susceptible to the run and haven’t had a formidable pass-rush. Calvin Ridley has looked like a stud with 4 touchdowns to his name so far, and he should be the leader again as the Falcons win their first game of the season.
Chicago Bears 24 Atlanta Falcons 28
LA Rams (2-0) @ Buffalo Bills (2-0)
Despite a weak opening schedule, the Bills currently have the best passing offense in the league. Josh Allen has thrown for 729 Yards, completing over 70% of his passes for 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The run game has been mostly a moot point and the defense hasn’t really been tested, but they did allow the Dolphins to creep back into the game last week. The Rams have looked proficient throwing the ball and the running game is one of the best but who carries the ball is a guessing game. The defense looks solid, keeping the Cowboys and banged up Eagles under 20 points. This will be one of the best games of the week between two of the best teams through two weeks. I think that the Bills pull through and get more pressure on Geoff defensively.
LA Rams 23 Buffalo Bills 24
Washington (1-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Washington’s defensive dominance opening day against the Eagles didn’t carry over to the Cards loss, while the Browns recovered from a Lamar Jackson beating to destroy the Bengals. Washington’s offense is limited 2nd worst in the league in total yards (555 Yards). The front seven of the Browns will certainly put more pressure on Haskins than the Cardinals that gave them problems. Cleveland’s run game against the Bengals looked dominant running for 215 yards against the worst run defense in football, but will face stiffer competition in Washington. Getting OBJ involved last week and getting the offense firing on all cylinders was huge, especially coming off the throwaway loss to the Ravens where nothing went right. Cleveland should gradually pick Washington apart offensively and the defense will smother the sputtering Dwayne Haskins.
Washington 17 Cleveland Browns 24
Tennessee Titans (2-0) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
The Vikings are dreadful. Blown out by the Packers and Colts in back-to-back weeks both the offense and defense are bottom-5 in the league. They’re also tied for 2nd in the league with 15 penalties. Ryan Tannehill on the hand is opening up the offense for the Titans and look excellent throwing for 4 touchdowns without without AJ Brown (knee injury) last week and Derrick Henry bottled limited to 84 yards on 3.4 per carry. To add injury to insult, the Vikings add standout linebacker Anthony Barr to season ending IR with a torn pec. Expect Derrick Henry to find the end zone for the first time this year.
Tennessee Titans 24 Minnesota 13
LV Raiders (2-0) @ New England Patriots (1-1)
The Raiders offense is moving full throttle behind TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs. Darren Waller received 16 targets on Derek Carr’s 34 passing attempts against the Saints and logged 12 catches for 103 yards a touchdown. If they could ever get the wide receiver position figured out this team could really be explosive. Rookies Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs have combined for 7 catches for 110 yards so far this season. The Patriots could be 2-0 if the blocking was better executing on the last play of the game last week against the Seahawks. Cam Newton looks comfortable throwing the ball and his 4 touchdowns on the ground put him on pace to crush his 14 rushing touchdown career high set as a rookie. The Raiders defense isn’t good and will be exploited by the Pats controlling the clock. Cam Newton may throw more than the previous two games because he can. The Patriots defense is still ok despite opt-outs and should be able to scheme up how to limit the top two weapons for the Raiders.
LV Raiders 20 New England Patriots 24
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) @ NY Giants (0-2)
In the Debbie Downer game-of-the-week, we have the San Fran 49ers that have be decimated by injury and one of the doormats in the NFL that’s lost their top offensive player for the year in Saquon Barkley. San Francisco will be without QB Jimmy Garappolo, TE George Kittle, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Deebo Samuel, and DE’s Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Solomon Thomas. SF still managed to be beat the hopeless Jets last week as the injuries stacked up and will probably beat the Giants as well. Nick Mullens isn’t a terrible backup and reliably guided the 49ers to victory last week. He’ll mostly be turning around and handing the ball off the Jerick McKinnon who looks good after 2 years of season-ending injuries have kept him off the field.
San Francisco 49ers 17 NY Giants 13
Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (0-2)
Joe Burrow leads the NFL in passing attempts (97) and will have a chance to win if the Bengals could stop anyone on the ground. The passing defense is one of the best in the league, but they’ve only had to stop Tyrod Tylor and Baker Mayfield, who relied on the run game to carve up the Bengals defense. Carson Wentz has got to be having nightmares after being sacked 8 times opening week and zero last week but looking rattled against the Ram. It’ll be popular to pick Joe Burrow to pick up his first victory here, but the Eagles offensive line should be more settled and Miles Sanders will have a field day against this defense. Carson Wentz will have an opportunity to bounce back and have his first big day in 2020 as the Eagles control the trenches.
Cincinnati Bengals 17 Philadelphia Eagles 24
Houston Texans (0-2) @ Pittsburg Steelers (2-0)
The Houston Texans have endure a brutal opening stretch against the Ravens, Chiefs and now the Steelers. Deshaun Watson is completing 66% of his passes despite constantly fighting to comeback. JJ Watt looks like force now that he’s healthy for the first time in years. The Steelers are firing on all cylinders. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson have clearly defined roles as the top receivers. Rookie Chase Claypool and TE Eric Ebron are both options. James Conner can’t stay healthy but racked up over 100 yards last week. The defense sacked Denver backup QB Jeff Driskel 6 times last week. Houston is going to have an uphill slot to avoid going 0-3.
Houston Texans 20 Pittsburg Steelers 31
Late Afternoon Slate
NY Jets (0-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
The Jets an awful and lost to the 49ers that were losing their top players on both sides of the ball last week as the game went on. The Colts defense is currently one of the best in the league and looks legit, even with S Malik Hooker lost for the season. Jonathon Taylor ran for 101 yards in his debut as the lead back to offset the loss of RB Marlon Mack and WR Parris Campbell was lost for the season but TE Mo Alie-Cox (5 Rec, 111 Yards) looks like an emerging weapon.
NY Jets 10 Indianapolis Colts 20
Carolina Panthers (0-2) @ LA Chargers (1-1)
Losing Christian McCaffrey for multiple weeks is a huge blow to the Panthers. Teddy Bridgewater has the weapons in Robby Anderson and DJ Moore to move the ball through the air going forward, but this pass rush and secondary is a tough group to play right out of the gate. The Chargers will be able to move the ball on the Panthers with Justin Herbert. He looked excellent in his debut throwing for over 300 yards. I can’t see Tyrod Tyler retaking the starting job; the ceiling is lowered with him in unfortunately. I think Hurbert starts and the Chargers play more conservative handing the ball the Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley and grind the Panthers out.
Carolina Panthers 13 LA Chargers 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) @ Denver Broncos (0-2)
The Broncos season is probably over with Drew Lock out 2-6 weeks with a shoulder injury and WR Sutton out for the year with a torn ACL. The offense was already one of the worst in the league and could be starting the newly signed Blake Bortles at QB. The defense isn’t as top notch as expected. Von Miller is still out until possibly December. On the other side, Tampa Bay -1 in turnover differential, one of the league leaders in penalties and the receivers drop too many passes. The run defense is still one of the best and the pass defense looks better than last season. The Bus have a lot to clean up, but it would be inexcusable for Brady to lose here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Denver Broncos 10
Detroit Lions (0-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
The Lions are expecting to have Kenny Golladay back and he’ll help open up the offense. The run game wasn’t successful last week, but will have an opportunity to run against the Cardinals. The Cards had the worst defense per just about every statistical category last season and look much more competent this season. Matthew Stafford will still have an opportunity to take apart the defense, especially if Golladay is healthy, and race potential MVP Kyler Murry. Murry has looked great the 2nd half of the 49ers game and taking apart Washington last week. Hopkins will be a tough cover for the Lions and the lack of pass rush might not be the worst thing as it’ll keep Murry in the pocket. This should be one of the highest scoring games of the week. I’m not sure how the Lions slow down Kyler Murry.
Detroit Lions 24 Arizona Cardinal 27
Dallas Cowboys (1-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
Russell Wilson is 5th in passing yards (610 yards), 1st in passing touchdowns (9), 1st in completion percentage (82.5%), 1st in passer rating (140.0), and 5th in QB rushing yards (68). DK Metcalf looks like a stud. Quick, strong and football smart to deceive defenders, are all adjectives that can be used to describe someone who was viewed as just a big body that could only run a limited route tree coming into the league last year. The offensive line has been decent. The defense can’t generate a pass rush and will certainly be giving up 30+ points to this Cowboys offense this week. Dallas lucked into the game winning field goal after a brutal onside kick against the Falcons. CeeDee Lamb got involved with the offense last week (6 rec, 106 yds) and Prescott threw for 450 yards completing 34 or 47 pass attempts. This should be another exciting matchup.
Dallas Cowboys 31 Seattle Seahawks 35
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (2-0) @ New Orleans Saints (1-1)
New Orleans look vulnerable against the Raiders on MNF without Michael Thomas. Alvin Kamara is the other indispensable offensive weapon the Saints have. With Thomas out last week he led the team in targets and receptions (9 for 9) and receiving yards (95). Tre’quan Smith was the receiver that saw more volume (7 Targets, 5 Rec, 86 Yds) not Emmanuel Sanders (3 Tgs, 1 Rec, 18 Yds). The Packers have the league’s leading rusher in Aaron Jones (234 Yds) and he’s also the top target after Devante Adams. Both of these teams have issues on defense, but the Saints are getting to the quarterback. If Devante Adams is out I expect the Saints to win. If He returns I expect the Packers to win.
Green Bay Packers 34 New Orleans Saints 35
Monday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
The Chiefs survived a Chargers team that look more threatening with Justin Herbert at QB last weekend. The Baltimore defense will give Patrick Mahomes more problems than the Chargers did. The defense clamped down on the Texans and Browns, both teams potentially potent offenses, and held the teams to a combined 22 points. The Ravens will shut down the running game and Patrick Mahomes will be forced to throw. Lamar Jackson and the offense are still efficient and racking up yards on the ground, including 230 yards against the Texans. The Ravens have the better roster and the Chiefs will struggle to stop Jackson just as everyone did last season. I expect the Ravens to know off the defending champs.
Kansas City Chiefs 31 Baltimore Ravens 34
