-Originally published 9/18/20-
Week 1 Record 9-7
Ok Week 1 showing. Projected bottom feeders (by me and pretty much everyone) Washington and Jacksonville both pulled upsets. The Chargers survived a chip-shot field goal, the Cowboys didn’t survive a bad pass-interference call and the Cardinals, Bears, and Raiders scored and hung on in the last couple minutes.
Thursday, September 17
Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) @ Cleveland Browns (0-1)
Both the Bengals and Browns will have the opportunity to get their offenses on track after a rough opening week Joe Burrow had flashes against the Chargers with a pair of the best corners and pass rushers in the league. He looked poised guiding the Bengals down the field for the game-tying field game (that was promptly missed). AJ Green looks to be a threat going forward, but the passing game largely struggled. The defense struggled against the run as they did last season (worst rush defense in 2019) and will get crushed against the much better duel of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt this week. The Browns were smashed by the Ravens in a throwaway game where no one looked great. Hunt had more carries (13) than Chubb (10) and they’ll flourish this week. Backer Mayfield struggled and Odell Beckham Jr (3 Rec, 22 Yds) and Austin Hooper (2 Rec, 15 Yds) both struggled. Cleveland will be playing without several starters in the secondary and linebacking core due to injury and DT Geno Aktins will miss another game for the Bengals. I expect Burrow to move the ball downfield and throw for 300+ despite the pass rush and for Cleveland to control the clock with Chubb and Hunt crushing the Bengals poor rush D. It should be a great game, I expect the better roster controlling the clock to pull it out.
Cincinnati 21 Cleveland 24
Sunday, September 20 – Early Slate
NY Giants (0-1) @ Chicago Bears (1-0)
Saquon Barkley only managed 6 yards rushing against the Steelers brutal front last week, but the Lions managed to move the ball against the Bears and he should be able to do the same. The Giants offense was largely suffocated and Daniel Jones will have another tough outing against the Bears. Mitch Trubisky took 3 quarters to figure out a lousy Lions team in week 1 and faces another lousy defense in the Giants. This could be affair could be sloppy and low-scoring.
NY Giants 17 Chicago Bears 20
Atlanta Falcons (0-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
A pair of opening weekend disappointments. The Falcons were shredded by Seattle and the high-powered passing offense and Falcons passing attack, the team’s greatest strength, couldn’t keep pace. The Cowboys offense only mustered 17 points and couldn’t survive the Rams, despite a horrible past interference call. Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards in a losing effort last week and should be able to exploit the poor Cowboys secondary. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russel Gage all had 9 receptions on 12 targets for a balanced passing attack, but Ridley came down with 2 TDs. The pass rush for Dallas also struggled to get pressure against the Rams pro offensive line and face another favorable matchup against the Falcons, but Dallas’s defense might not be as productive as expected. The Cowboys have more than amply weapons on offense to carve up the Falcons defense for a second straight week. Julio Jones could be questionable for Sunday and that would obviously take a weapon out of Ryan’s arsenal. I expect he plays and the Falcons pull the upset behind the high-powered passing attack against a Cowboy defense that seems to struggle to generate a pass rush or cover.
Atlanta Falcons 31 Dallas Cowboys 28
Detroit Lions (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-0)
Aaron Roger crushed the Vikings in Week 1 throwing for 364 Yards and 4 TDs and WR Devante Adam had 14 receptions for 156 yards and 2 TDs on 17 targets. Seven players logged rushing attempts for the Packers for a combined 158 yards with Aaron Jones still the clear #1 back. The Lions already suspect defense managed to keep Mitch Trubisky bottled up for 3 quarters last week before giving up 3 passing touchdowns in crunch time in a comeback victory for the Bears. Starting corner Desmond Trufant has missed practice this week which could make things worse. The Lions had a solid running game against the Bears; it’s just unfortunate that it was behind late addition 35-year-old Adrian Peterson (14 Att, 93 Yds) and not young center pieces Kerryon Johnson (7 Att, 14 Yds) and D’Andre Swift (3 Att, 8 Yds, 1 TD) who have both been banged up. The Lions passing attack wasn’t as potent which was probably a combination of Stafford not playing in 18 months, the Bears pass rush, and the lack of Galloday, who is expected to miss this game. The Packers defense struggled against Cousins and Cook. The Vikings scored 34 points, had 134 yards rushing, 259 passing allowing Cousins 76% completion percentage. So expect this to be another high scoring affair.
Detroit Lions 20 Green Bay Packers 34
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) @ Tennessee Titans (1-0)
Gardner Minshew managed to hit 19 of 20 passes for 193 yds and 3 Tds in an upset win over the Colts last weekend. The Jags will continue to take to the air against a much better Titans defense. The running game never got going against the Colts and won’t against the Titans. The Titans will be able to stick to their bread and butter. Run the ball with Derrick Henry and supplement with efficient Tannehill play. Henry grabbed 116 yards on the ground and Tannehill posted 67% completion percentage on 43 attempts for 2 touchdowns against Denver last week. Minshew mania will be short lived.
Jacksonville 14 Tennessee Titans 24
Minnesota Vikings (0-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Both of these secondaries were awful last weekend. The Colts gave the Jags everything they wanted through the air and the new Vikings secondary was destroyed by Aaron Rodgers. Both of these teams should rely on the running game more, but Cousins was efficient completing 76% of his passes last week trying to keep pace with the Packers. Phillip Rivers needs to be more efficient, but continues to throw backbreaking interceptions, forcing the ball when he doesn’t need to including the game clincher against the Jags. I think Kirk Cousins and Davlin Cook post efficient games and pull the road win.
Minnesota Vikings 27 Indianapolis Colts 20
Buffalo Bills (1-0) @ Miami Dolphins (0-1)
Buffalo’s rushing attack struggled (41 Yards from running backs) in Week 1 against a strong Jets front and had to rely on Allen throwing for his first 300 yard game (312 yrds). The Bills defense stiffed the Jets lousy defense and should give the Dolphins problems. The Patriots held the Dolphins to less than 100 yards rushing and held Fitzpatrick to less than 200 yards passing and picked him off three times. The Dolphins gave up over 200 yards on the ground and allowed Cam Newton to complete 78% of his passes last week. The ‘fins are still putting the pieces together and have potential, but opening against the Pats and Bills aren’t doing them any favors.
Buffalo Bills 24 Miami Dolphins 10
San Francisco 49ers (0-1) @ NY Jets (0-1)
The Jets are a dumpster fire. The run defense still appears to be top-notch and Jamison Crowder had 7 receptions for 115 yards and a monster 69-yard run away touchdown, but they’re not many bright spots. Le’Veon Bell is out now to add to the poor play, making vet Frank Gore the starter. The 49ers are losing weapons left-and-right. Deebo is still out and star tightend George Kittle is doubtful. Rookie Aiyuk should be healthy to play. Receivers for the 49ers were the recipients of only 10 of Garoppolo’s passes and they running backs will be heavily targeted going forward. The 49ers will be tested against the Jets front, but I expect them to pull away.
San Francisco 49ers 17 NY Jets 10
LA Rams (1-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
Carson Wentz was sacked 8 times by Washington as the shell game that calls themselves the offensive line struggled mightily between injuries and juggling guys around. The Rams pass rush go for a dozen sacks if improvements aren’t made. Wentz only completed 57% of his passes for 270 yards, 2 Tds, 2 Ints in the Eagles struggles. His full complement of weapons, RB Miles Sanders, RB Boston Scott, and WR Jalen Reagor should all be healthy now. The defense should be healthy as well. The Rams offensive line could be overpowered in the trenches, but they kept Geoff pretty clean against the Cowboys. The Eagles backend will have its hand full against the Rams potent passing attack. The Eagles are the better roster and looked horrible last week. I think they pull things together and manage to win.
LA Rams 21 Philadelphia Eagles 24
Denver Broncos (0-1) @ Pittsburg Steelers (1-0)
The Steelers look good wiping out the Giants on Monday Night Football. James Connor left injury, but should be ready for the Broncos, if not Benny Snell looked solid in his absence. The defense held Saquon Barkley to 6 yards and shut down Daniel Jones. They’ll get to clamp down on another young QB in Drew Lock. The Broncos played close in a 16-14 loss against the Titans, but the offense has a long way to go. Lock only averaged 6.5 yards per completed in a short passing offense and the run game was unimpressive with Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay, who is unlikey to play. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 3 Tds in his return and he clearly favors JuJu and Diontae Johnson as his top targets.
Denver Broncos 10 Pittsurgh Steelers 24
Carolina Panthers (0-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)
The Buccaneers were sloppy against a veteran Saints squad and got rocked last week. The offensive line struggled, the team had stupid penalties (led the league last year) and Brady’s play was average. The offense should get on track against the Panthers rebuilding defense that struggled against the Raiders. McCaffrey was elite (22 carries 97 rush/yds, 2 Tds) but not the main focus of the passing game (3 receptions on 4 targets for 38 yards) as he was last season. Robby Anderson (8 targets, 6 Rec, 144 yds, 1 Td), DJ Moore (9 targets, 4 Rec, 54 Yds) and Curtis Samel (8 targets, 5 Rec, 38 Yds) all spread the wealth from Teddy Bridgewater (269 Yds, 1 TD, 64% Comp). The Bucs defense battled the best offensive line in the league and a phenomenal group of skill position players last week and managed to how the Saints under 100 yards on the ground. They’ll matchup much better against the Panthers. Even if Chris Godwin doesn’t clear concussion protocol the Bucs should lock up a victory.
Carolina Panthers 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Sunday, September 20 – Afternoon Slate
Washington (1-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-0)
Washington fielded a surprisingly solid defense that got after Carson Wentz for 8 sacks and gave the Eagles hell all day. The Cardinal offensive line will have a hard time keeping Washington off of Kyler Murry and Deandre Hopkins will again see double-digit targets. Arizona will have more weapons than the ailing Eagles to threaten Washington’s defense, but Ron Rivera looks like he worked his magic on that side of the ball. Dwayne Haskins and co won’t have stiff competition on the Cardinals defensive side of the ball. Arizona looked decent against the banged up 49ers offense, but they still have to improve after being the worst defense in the league last season. After a shocking first outing, I think Washington’s offense gets after Kyler Murry like they did Wentz last week and the offense moves the ball against the Cards enough to pull off the win. Washington 24 Arizona Cardinals 20
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) @ LA Chargers (1-0)
Ok, so let’s try to make a case for the Chargers pulling an upset. The Chiefs are susceptible to the run so Ekeler and Kelley (144 Rush/Yds combined last week) have big days on the ground and LA controls the clock and keeps the ball out of Mahomes hand. The problem is the already poor offensive line loses center Mike Pouncey for year due to hip issues. Tyrod Taylor can’t turn the ball over and needs to keep the defense honest with his legs. The Chargers defense needs to pressure Mahomes and the secondary needs to keep up with the speedy receiving core of the Chiefs. None of this is impossible, but it’s far more likely Mahomes slowly picks his spots and the Chargers fall to 0-2.
Kansas City Chiefs 28 LA Chargers 20
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) @ Houston Texans (1-0)
The Ravens had few issues carving up the Cleveland Browns defense last week and should have an even easier time this week against the Houston Texans. The defensive numbers are going to be skewed for the Texans who are facing the Chiefs and Ravens high-powered offenses in the first two weeks of the seasons, but the front seven should be decent. DeShaun Watson always be threatening to any defense, but the Ravens are loaded and will have him under pressure all game. The Texans don’t have much hope here.
Baltimore Ravens 31 Houston Texans 17
Sunday, September 20 – SNF
New England (1-0) @ Seattle (1-0)
Cam Newton was efficient in the opener running for 2 touchdowns and completing 78% of his passes. The defense with all its opt outs forced Ryan Fitzpatrick into 3 turnovers and shut down the Dolphins. Seattle finally unleashed Russell Wilson and the Seahawks passed more than any other team through 3 quarters. New England rushed for over 130 yards excluding Cam’s 75 yards on the ground and New England with again play conservative to keep the ball out of Wilson’s hands. It’ll be interesting to see how the Pats makeshift defense does against a real offense behind “Russell Unleashed”, I think the Seahawks pull ahead and win here.
New England 20 Seattle 21
Monday, September 21
New Orleans (1-0) @ LV Raiders (1-0)
Michael Thomas is the big injury news here. The Raiders have injuries to both rookie starting receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, both are expected to play. Josh Jacobs scored 3 rushing touchdowns for the Raiders last week and should be the focal point of the offense again until the Raiders fall behind. The defense is young and putting pieces together, Drew Brews doesn’t need Michael Thomas to win here. Alvin Kamara could have 10 receptions with Thomas being out.
New Orleans 24 LV Raiders 17