-Originally published 12/12/20-
Last week saw the nearly saw Jacksonville and the Jets both pick up victories. The Jets lost on a near-hail-mary (5 seconds were left) to the Raiders in what will be a highly criticized defensive blitz call by NY that got defensive coordinator Gregg Williams fired. Jacksonville took Minnesota to OT but couldn’t pull out a victory. The Steelers poor offense final caught up to them as the fell to Washington. We also saw our first real sample of Jalen Hurts and he’ll be the starting quarterback this week for the Eagles.
Pick Record
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 11-3
Week 8: 7-7
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 5-9
Week 12: 10-6
Week 13: 11-5
Overall: 119-74
Thursday, December 10th
New England Patriots (6-6) @ LA Rams (8-4)
Pick: LA Rams
The Rams are fielding one of the best defenses in the league and are 1st place in the NFC West. The Pats defensive line is top-10 in pressure rate (24.5%) and they’re 2nd in hurry percentage (13.5%). They wrecked the Chargers last week sacking Herbert three times and grabbing two interceptions. If the Patriots can find a way to consistently get pressure on Geoff they’ll have a chance at the upset.
Sunday, December 13th – Early Slate
Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) @ Miami Dolphins (8-4)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
KC survived Denver last week but their clearly going through the motions. The Dolphins are 2nd in points allowed (17.7) Miami has a +7 turnover differential and have forced 21 turnovers this season good for 2nd in the league. They’re going to give up yards to the Chiefs and KC doesn’t turn the ball over often. Miami will be able to run the ball and hopefully control the clock. That’s got to figure into the game plan for any chance at an upset to happen.
Arizona Cardinals (6-6) @ NY Giants (5-7)
Pick: NY Giants
The Giants are on their first 4 game winning streak since 2016 and have a great shot to make the playoffs after a 1-7 start. The offense is getting and Colt McCoy will probably start again, but the defense is top 10 in points allow (22.1), yards allowed (339 ypg) and 6th in pressure rate (25.2%). The struggling Cards have lost four straight and will struggle against the Giant’s defense. The Giant offense will be able to move the ball against Arizona’s middling defense and grab its 5th win in a row.
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has been struggling mightily and lost 3 of 4 all to quality opponents (Saints, Rams, Chiefs). The defense is getting torched on the backend and Brady is struggling under pressure. The Vikings starting 1-5 are pushing for the playoffs. Minnesota doesn’t have the ability on defense to give the Bucs a difficult time. They’ve also been shutting down the run so don’t expect Delvin Cook to have a big day. The Bucs should win big.
Houston Texans (4-8) @ Chicago Bears (5-7)
Pick: Houston Texans
Dallas Cowboys (3-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1)
Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos (4-8) @ Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Tennessee Titans (8-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11)
Pick: Tennessee Titans
Houston is 3-2 the past five weeks with the losses coming by a combined 9 points. Deshaun Watson fumbled the game winning touchdown-handoff against the Colts last week that would have given them a 3-game-winning streak. Watson has thrown for over 1,000 yards the past three weeks but failed to throw for a touchdown in his first game without Will Fuller V. Chicago has lost six straight and the Texans are primed to make it seven. The offense is moving better with Trubisky, but the team is in trouble. Dallas should be able to beat a lousy Bengals team. Denver’s defense is making it tough on opponents, but Christian McCaffrey returns to the Panthers this week and the offense will be tough to stop. I don’t know what to make of Tennessee. One week they destroy the Colts 45-26, the next they’re down three touchdowns early to the Browns and rally to keep it close late. Both the Colts and Browns are build similarity on offense and defense so it’s really strange.
Sunday, December 13th – Afternoon Slate
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) @ LV Raiders (7-5)
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers (9-3) @ Detroit Lions (5-7)
Pick: Green Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints (10-2) @ Philly Eagles (3-8-1)
Pick: New Orleans Saints
Washington (5-7) @ SF 49ers (5-7)
Pick: SF 49ers
Atlanta Falcons (4-8) @ LA Chargers (3-9)
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
NY Jets (0-12) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
The Colts and the Raiders looks good on paper but the Raiders will have a real tough time against Indy’s defense. The Raider’s defense will have its hands full against the ground game of the Colts. The Lions suck and Galloway is out again. They can’t seem to play good offense unless they’re behind. They’ll get to run that script again against the Packers. Jalen Hurts will have a rough go getting his first start against the Saints. New Orleans might be better than Pittsburg defensively right now and the top unit in the league. The offensive line isn’t improving regardless of the quarterback but Hurts won’t miss wide open receivers, should there be any.
Washington looked good beating the Steelers and they’re neck and neck with the Giants to win the division. San Francisco is making a late push for the playoffs and might be the 2nd best team in the AFC West behind the Rams and ahead Seattle and Arizona. I think the coaching and competence of the 49ers will allow them to pull out a tough win in a defensively game. Atlanta and LA will be way the most bummer game of the day. Herbert is awesome to watch and the Chargers have talent but they’re just a disaster with stupid penalties and poor coaching. Julio will be out for the Falcons again and his impact on Matt Ryan cannot be understated. The offense dies when he’s not available. Defensively they’re improving enough to beat the imploding Chargers. Seattle has been struggling because, you know, the entire roster sucks outside of Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett but they should pull away from the Jets late.
Sunday Night Football
Pittsburg Steelers (11-1) @ Buffalo Bills (9-3)
Pick: Buffalo Bills
Monday, December 14th
Baltimore Ravens (7-5) @ Cleveland Browns (9-3)
Pick: Cleveland Browns
The Steelers offense continues to be a problem and it finally caught up to the. The ground game is good and James Conner missing in action last week proved that with the backup’s accounting for 21 yards last week. Buffalo’s run game has been absent and the defense has been middle-of-the-road but Josh Allen has looked excellent. I expect the Steelers to drop another game this week. Monday night football is an excellent matchup that’ll allow the Browns to get revenge for an opening day blowout to the Ravens. Expectations will be for Baltimore to beat Cleveland “per usual”, but I think Myles Garrett and the defensive front for the Browns will push Baltimore around. Last week’s Tennessee Titans win was a playoff like performance from Baker Mayfield, he needs to continue to perform at that level to guarantee a starting job next season.
