-Originally published 12/6/20-
Last week we saw all 32 teams in action over a six-day span. Something we’ll probably never see again. Our usually Thanksgiving triple header became a double and saw the Ravens/Steelers game get bumped twice from Thursday to Monday to Wednesday afternoon as its final playing time due to covid. They were still without Lamar Jackson and several key players as RG III took over as starter (and was injured). The Broncos didn’t follow protocol and all their QB’s were forced to sit out, forcing former college QB and current practice squad WR KJ Hinton to take snaps as he went 1/9 for 32 yards and 2 picks. Only on pass was completed for the Broncos in a 31-3 loss to the Saints. The reason they didn’t get to reschedule and the Ravens did? Supposedly it was because the Broncos QB’s broke protocol by not wearing masks when near each other in practice while the Ravens outbreak was possibly linked to a staff member. I guess the league felt that one should be punished over the other. The Jacksonville Jags are now officially eliminated from the playoffs. Panthers and Bucs are on bye.
Pick Record
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 11-3
Week 8: 7-7
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 5-9
Week 12: 10-6
Overall: 108-69
Sunday, December 6th – Early Slate
New Orleans Saints (9-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-7)
Pick: New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is #1 in yards allow (allowed) and 5th in points. Atlanta will put up points with Julio Jones and Todd Gurley expected to play and poor corner play by the Saints. Taysom Hill was 18 for 23 for 233 yards at 10.1 yards per passing attempt and 10 carries for 49 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 24-9 win over the Falcons two weeks ago. Gurley was held to 26 yards. I expect a closer rematch but the same result.
Detroit Lions (4-7) @ Chicago Bears (5-6)
Pick: Chicago Bears
It’ll be interesting to see what intern coach Darrell Bevell has schemed up. The Lions have two much talent for their record. Golladay and Okudah are out and D’Andre Swift and safety Tracy Walker questionable which leaves the Lions short-handed out of the gate. Mitch Trubisky has thrown 3 touchdowns against the Lions in four straight meetings including a come-for-behind win opening day. Detroit’s run defense is atrocious. With Chicago having one of the worst offenses in the league they have a wonderful matchup here. The coaching chance might give Detroit a bump but I’m not sure they pull out a win.
Cleveland Browns (8-3) @ Tennessee Titans (8-3)
Pick: Tennessee Titans
Myles Garrett is back after missing 2 weeks and is still in the running for DPOTY for his contributions (31 TKS, 9.5 sacks, 4 FF, 1 FR). The front 7 will really need his help to slow Derrick Henry. Cleveland’s offense survives week-to-week trying to make sure Baker Mayfield doesn’t screw things up. Tennessee will be without tight end Jonnu Smith but they continue to be dangerous offensively after torching a good Indianapolis defense 45-26 last week. Ryan Tannehill has the 5th highest QB rating this season (76.7), he’s tied for 7th in touchdown passes (23), tied for 8th in average-yards-passing (7.8). The Titans are 2nd in the league with a +11 turnover differential. This should be one of the best games of the day between two playoff teams. I’m running with the Titans who are averaging over 36 ppg the last three weeks against great defenses in the Ravens and the Colts (twice).
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) @ Houston Texans (4-7)
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Will Fuller is out for the season on PED suspension, Randall Cobb is on IR, and Kenny Stills was cut (in retrospect) a week ago leaving Watson suddenly shorthanded in the help department as Houston tries to put a few more wins together this season. He’ll lean on his tight ends and David Johnson who is returning from IR. The Colts return monster DT Deforest Buckner from the covid list and will shut the Texans down. The Colts are running a fleet of capable backs to tear up one of the league’s worst run defenses.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1) @ Miami Dolphins (7-4)
Pick: Miami Dolphins
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-6)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
LV Raiders (6-5) @ NY Jets (0-11)
Pick: LV Raiders
Miami, Minnesota, and LV are all big favorites this week. Brandon Allen didn’t hurt (17-29, 136 yrds, 1/1 Td/Int) the Bengals in a 19-17 Giants loss last week, but the Dolphins aren’t the Giants. The Bengals only managed 155 yards of offense last week. The Vikings defense can’t be trusted, but Kirk Cousins will tear up an overmatched group of corners and will win even if it gets tight with Mike Glennon starting at QB again for the Jags. Jacksonville has some talent on offense at the skill positions, they could pull an upset if the wheels fall off for Minnesota. The Jets defense could keep things interesting against a Raiders team without Josh Jacobs, but who’s really picking them? The offense was healthy for the first time all season last week with Sam Darnold and a healthy complement of wide receivers and they were stomped out 20-3 by the Dolphins.
Sunday, December 6th – Afternoon Slate
LA Rams (7-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
Pick: LA Rams
The Rams defense has become one of the best in the league. They’re 2nd in yards allowed (296.7 ypg) and tied for 3rd in points allowed (19.5). They have a -1 turnover differential (TOD) because they turn the ball over too much (tied for 5th in turnovers with 19). The Raiders are the only other team with a winning record and a negative TOD. Jared Geoff struggles when he’s under pressure but he won’t face much pressure from the Cardinals defense. The Cards have lost 3 of 4 in a touch stretch losing a rematch to the Seahawks and a pair of field goal losses to the Dolphins and Patriots. The lone victory was a 2 point win against the Bills. The Rams will pressure Murry enough to put them in danger of missing the playoffs.
New England Patriots (5-6) @ LA Chargers (3-8)
Pick: New England Patriots
The Pats smothered Kyler Murry last week (23/24, 170 yds, 1 Int) as Belichick continues his trend of destroying first and second year quarterbacks. Next on the list is Justin Herbert (3,015 yds, 23 Tds) and the inept Chargers. Austin Ekeler received 25 touches in his return last week (14 att, 44 rush/yds, 11 rec, 85 yds) and figures to continue to get a load along with Keenen Allen. The Patriots offense had less than 200 yards last week but the defense did what it need to. I expect the Bill to beat another first year QB here.
NY Giants (4-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Philly Eagles (3-7-1) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Sunday Night Football
Denver Broncos (4-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Three heavy favorites, all playing at home, in the Seahawks, Packers, and Chiefs clog the afternoon and Sunday night game slot unfortunately. Colt McCoy will be starting for the Giants with Daniel Jones suffering a hamstring injury. Seattle’s offense will have a tough time against a top 5 rush defense (95.4 ypg) and top 10 total defense (340 ypg) holding opponents to 23 ppg. NY won’t be able to keep pace offensively. The Eagles will be able to run against the Packers pours front, but they can’t be counted on to win anything. Jalen Hurts appeared briefly in a confusing sequence of plays last week, maybe he’ll make another appearance. Denver will return its quarterbacks after an embarrassing display by the NFL last week to not delay the game with no active QB’s on the team’s roster.
Monday, December 7th
Washington (4-7) @ Pittsburg Steelers (11-0)
Pick: Pittsburg Steelers
Buffalo Bills (8-3) @ SF 49ers (5-6)
Pick: Buffalo Bills
Tuesday, December 8th
Dallas Cowboys (3-8) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburg’s defense will be too much for Washington to possibly move the ball on. Pittsburg’s offensive isn’t much better (346.5) than Washington’s (325.3) but they have more weapons. The Ravens should recover from a rough patch to destroy the Cowboys or they are going to be in danger of missing the playoffs, a crazy notion after last season. Dallas’s pours defense will allow the Ravens to get back on track even on a short week. San Francisco is finally healthy and in shape to make a late playoff push. Buffalo’s running game has been questionable and the defense isn’t looking at solid as of late. A great win 23-20 over the Rams last week saw SF put pressure on Geoff and move the ball effectively with Nick Mullens. I think they notch another win against the Bills in a low scoring affair.