-Originally published 11/11/20-
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 11-3
Week 8: 7-7
Week 9: 9-5
Overall: 83-50
Thursday, November 12th
Indianapolis Colts (5-3) @ Tennessee Titans (6-2)
Pick: Tennessee Titans
The Titans offense struggled against the Bears last week (Tannehill-10/21, 158 Yds, 2 Tds, Derrick Henry-68 Yds) and the secondary continues to struggle, giving up 335 yards and 2 touchdowns to Nick Foles. Philip Rivers was predictably horrid against the Ravens last week, but he’ll be able to move the ball against Tennessee. This will be a defensive battle and the Titans are just more reliable. They lead the league with a +10 turnover differential. They have only turned the ball over 4 times all year. The Colts are tied for 6th at +4.
Sunday, November 15th – Early Slate
Houston Texans (2-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-3)
Pick: Cleveland Browns
Washington (2-6) @ Detroit Lions (3-5)
Pick: Detroit Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) @ Green Bay Packers (6-2)
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) @ NY Giants (2-7)
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) @ Carolina Panthers (3-6)
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not sure how, but the afternoon slate has more games than the early slate. Only five games are currently scheduled for 1pm EST kickoff with most having clear favorites. Both Green Bay and Tampa Bay are having their fair share of issues, but both are playoff teams facing overmatched opponents. The Panthers can hang in games and played the Chiefs close last week, but they’re over performing. Christian McCaffrey suffered a shoulder injury last week and will probably be out against the Bucs. Tampa has been embarrassed by New Orleans twice now and won’t face the same pressure from the Panthers that the Saints were able to put on them. The Lions should have Matthew Stafford against Washington; they currently have the best passing defense (185.6 yards-per-game) in the league but the offense one of the worst in the league, limited by the poor quarterback play. Speaking of poor quarterbacks, Carson Wentz leads the NFL in interceptions (12) and Daniel Jones is 3rd (9). Horrible play aside, the Eagles/Giants game should be quite competitive. The Giants defense isn’t bad and the Eagles will have healthy offense players out of the bye week with RB Miles Sanders, WR Alshon Jeffery and possibly RT Lane Johnson. This game is a toss-up. Houston isn’t very good and Cleveland won’t miss much if Baker Mayfield sits out for Covid protocol for Case Keenum.
Sunday, November 15th – Late Slate
Denver Broncos (3-5) @ LV Raiders (5-3)
Pick: LV Raiders
LA Chargers (2-6) @ Miami Dolphins (5-3)
Pick: Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills (7-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
Picks: Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks (6-2) @ LA Rams (5-3)
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco (4-5) @ New Orleans Saints (6-2)
Pick: New Orleans Saints
Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1) @ Pittsburg Steelers (8-0)
Pick: Pittsburg Steelers
The afternoon slate is full of tasty matchups. The Saints looked dominate against Tampa Bay and should handle the completely decimated 49ers, but you can never underestimate that coaching staff. The Raiders are finding ways to win and it’ll be the strength of Vega’s offense against Denver’s pass rush. If Drew Lock can’t make a game of this, he’ll continue his slide right out town, while the Broncos look for a new starter next season. Big Ben could be out this week, which shouldn’t be an issue considering the Steelers went 8-8 last season with gym teachers at QB but Joe Burrows potency under center, could change things.
The Cards have the #1 offense in the NFL averaging 422 yards-per-game. The Buffalo defense hasn’t been holding strong enough to stop Kyler Murray and Co. The game should a high scoring affair. Seattle’s blemishes, poor offensive line, no healthy running backs, worse defense in the league, all reared their ugly head in loss the past few weeks. I don’t think LA is very good, they’re -2 in turnover differential and has managed a pretty soft schedule so far (Wins-Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Washington, Bears, Losses-Bills, 49ers, Dolphins). They don’t generate much pressure but Aaron Donald will still disrupt Russell. I think the Seahawks survive the Rams tight.
The Dolphins are quietly tied for 4th in turnover differential (+5) and 4th in points allowed (20.1). They’ve won four straight over the 49ers, Jets, Rams and a good Cards team last week. Tua looked good throwing (20/28, 248 yards, 2 Tds) and showed the ability to carry the ball (7 car, 35 yards) in his 2nd start last week. Herbert on the other sidelight will be awesome to watch sling the ball in the battle of rookies. Until the Chargers can hold onto a lead they can’t be picked to win a game.
Sunday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) @ New England Patriots (3-5)
Pick:Baltimore Ravens
New England pulled a huge win out against the Jets on Monday Night Football on a late field goal. Indicative of both the fight and talent still on the Jets roster and how far the Patriots have dropped; the real test will be if the struggling Ravens offense can be disrupted enough for the upset on SNF. The Ravens hold opponents to 17.8 ppg (1st), 31st in passing yards 176.9 and 1st in rushing yards (170.1). The Patriots can emphasis, with a poor passing attack and reliance running the ball and shutting down the opponent’s vertical attack. These teams operate the same way, but the Ravens are the better team.
Monday, November 16th
Minnesota Vikings (3-5) @ Chicago Bears (5-4)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings defense is still bottom-5 in the league and the Bears offense is bottom-5. Both teams are -3 in turnover differential. Dalvin Cook has overtaken Derrick Henry as the league’s leading rusher (858 Yds, 12 Tds, 6 YPC) behind 206 yard, 2 Td, 9.4 ypc and 163 yard, 3 td, 5.4 ypc games the last two weeks. Minnesota is heading up if Cousins doesn’t sink them in some way; the Bears defensive isn’t good enough to balance the horrible offensive play.
