-Originally published 9/10/20-
Thursday Night Football
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
The defending Super Bowl champs comfortably return a roster with little turnover and the knowledge that both QB and coach are locked in for the long haul after signing extensions during the offseason. A hopefully heathy JJ Watt will be tasked with chasing down Mahomes while the secondary will be trying to keep up with the Chiefs receiving core of Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. On the other side of the ball Desean Watson, off his own contract extension that makes him the 2nd highest paid QB behind Mahomes, will throw to speedsters Will Fuller V and Brandon Cooks. It should be a shootout for three quarters but the Chiefs defensive line will give the Texans offensive line fits and the Chiefs secondary was one of the best at preventing big plays last season. Expect the Chiefs defense to make the stops that matter.
Houston Texans 31 Kansas City Chiefs 49
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Russell Wilson will have the opportunity to shred young Falcons secondary and the lousy Seattle pass rush will matchup against Atlanta’s questionable offensive line. Atlanta finished 6-2 last season after making adjustments to the defense. Seattle’s offensive line was also one of the worst in the NFL last season and Atlanta’s addition of sackpert Dante Fowler (11.5 sacks in ’19) could give them issues. Seattle’s defense struggled to turn the opponent over last season and could suffer the same issue this season. This game should be a shootout between veteran quarterbacks. I expect the upgraded Falcons defense to be the difference.
Seattle Seahawks 27 Atlanta Falcons 34
NY Jets at Buffalo Bills
Sam Darold could have five new O-line starters opening day, in addition to a brand new receiving core outside of Jamison Crowder. Le’Veon Bell, possibly one of three returning offensive starters outside Darold and Crowder, only averaged 3.2 yards-per-attempt behind last season’s line and 2020s isn’t guaranteed to be better and certainly won’t be opening day. The Jets could be a dumpster that’s unable to move the ball right off the bat. Josh Allen will have an opportunity to use Stephan Diggs right away with Jamal Adams now longer a threat in New York. The Jets top rushing defense for 2019 should translate to 2020 and make things difficult for the Bills rushing attack so Allen will have to beat the Jets with his arm. This could be snooze.
NY Jets 3 Buffalo Bills 17
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
The Chicago Bears have named Mitch Trubisky the starting quarterback for week 1. David Montgomery is questionable. Regardless, Matt Nagy should be able to scheme up a game plan to exploit the Lions defense. The Lions will have to prove they can generate a competent pass rush and haven’t shown confidence in Jeff Okudah, declining to name the shoe-in starter a starter. The Bears defense will still be a force, guided by Khalil Mack. Matthew Stafford threw for over 2,500 yards and 19 touchdowns in half of 2019, staggering number. He should be able to move the ball enough threw the air for the win. D’Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson have been banged up making the Adrian Peterson signing necessary, but the running game won’t be at full strength.
Chicago Bears 21 Detroit Lions 28
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Rogers will be leaning on Davante Adams and Allen Lazard to test out Minnesota’s new starting corners. Both teams field young secondary’s with lots of potential. The Vikings will certainly work to get Adam Thielen involved after missing most of last season and rookie Justin Jefferson who’ll be the other starter, but controlling the game with Delvin Cook will still be the game plan. The Packers opted to not select a receiver to help Rodgers out during the draft, but did select another running back in AJ Dillion to complement Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. I expect Matt Lafleur to run the ball as well, but Rogers to make the plays necessary to win. The Vikings will be without Pro Bowl DE Danielle Hunter that’ll hurt the Vikings pass rush.
Green Bay Packers 21 Minnesota Vikings 17
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
The first Cam Newton look comes against former Patriots assistant Bryan Flores and the Dolphins that upset the Pats in week 17 last season. The skill position players are a mess for the Pats. Mohamed Sanu was cut, thinning out the already weak receiving core. Running back Sony Michel has been banged up and Damien Harris is on injured reserve. The defense should still be strong even with several key opt-outs. The Dolphins are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick and he’ll have weapons in Devante Parker, Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki. The offensive line was awful last season and the Pats will pressure Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins defense could be surprising this season and corners Byron Jones and Xavien Howard could be one of the best duels in the league. I think Flores manages to pull the rare upset over Belichick in New England in the post-Brady era.
Miami Dolphins 24 New England Patriots 17
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington
Philadelphia has won the past 5 meetings against Washington, most games weren’t close. The Eagles are quietly a dark horse Super Bowl team again if they can stay healthy. That’s already an issue with offensive line injuries, Miles Sanders is back but suffered an injury during training camp, and Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor will both be out against Washington. Washington’s offense is questionable at best. Dwayne Haskins has to show he’s made improvements, Terry Mclaurin is the only proven receiver and sorting out the running back situation has been a dart throw. The defense should be much improved under Ron Riviera and we’ll get our first look at top draft pick Chase Young, but it would still take a tremendous effort for Washington to pull an upset here.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington 13
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers
Rookie NFL coach Matt Rhule spent every draft pick on the defensive side of the ball and really could have used preseason games to test things out. Teddy Bridgewater will be a steady hand and have the chance to exploit the Raiders defense with weapons DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel. Christian McCaffrey will again be the focal point of the offense and a safety blanket when things go wrong, but Bridgewater will be able to pick holes in the Raiders secondary. Derek Carr has always been underrated and has new toys in Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. Tightened Darren Waller should be the top target until the receivers are up-to-speed. The Raiders are still trying to fulling integrate all of the new defensive pieces drafted last season. This could be a sloppy ball game between two teams putting all the pieces together.
Las Vegas Raiders 21 Carolina Panthers 20
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Philip Rivers will have one of the best offensive lines he’s ever played behind and a group of running backs to lean on. He’s still a gambler, but not much will hurt the Colts in week 1 as they play a Jacksonville team that continues to move its best players. The Colts secondary is suspect and the one strength of the Jags is Gardner Minshew’s ability to throw the deep ball and a decent young receiving core in Jacksonville. One of the Jags receivers will have a big game whether its DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, or rookie Laviska Shenault. Colts put this one away pretty easily.
Indianapolis Colts 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 14
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
The Browns managed to split with the Ravens last season with a blowout week 4 upset. Both teams have loaded defenses, top-flight pass rushers, and the ability to have potent offenses. Lamar Jackson won’t explode out of the gate as in some games; his best bet is to exploit the young secondary. Mark Andrews should be the primary target in the passing game. Baker Mayfield should turning around and handing off to Nick Chubb a lot this game, but he’ll have to make big throws to win. This game could come down to defense more than offense; it should be one of the best games of the week.
Cleveland Browns 21 Baltimore Ravens 27
LA Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow landed in on a team full of weapons with AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and RB Joe Mixon all in place. The offensive line was one of the worst in the league and will have to fight off sacksperts Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram that have the ability to derail the Bengals entire offense. On the backend, the Chargers secondary is probably the best in the league. Joe Burrow will be exciting to watch this season, but this isn’t an ideal first matchup. Tyrod Taylor will start for the Chargers and although he isn’t always exciting, he won’t have nearly as difficult a time navigating the gradually improving Bengals defense.
LA Chargers 31 Cincinnati Bengals 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Tampa Tom starts off his time in Florida against another team loaded for a Super Bowl run. Brady may already be down a weapon opening week with Mike Evans in question with a hamstring injury that hampered him before. Chris Godwin is still due for double digit targets, but the receiver depth chart falls off a cliff after Godwin and Evans. Gronk should be targeted early and Brady loves his two tight end sets. The running back pecking order interesting to watch with LeSean McCoy and Ronald Jones promised time, but the addition of Leonard Fournette figures to cut into their time. The offensive line will have to hold up against Cameron Jordan and the Saints pass rush. The Bucs defense is underrated and should be a real threat this season without having to worry about the quarterback turning the ball over 30 times. The Saints are loaded and should have the ability to move the ball even with due to the offensive talent. Adding Emmanuel Sanders is at least another option and Ty Montgomery has been practicing with the receivers. The Saints will get the best of the Bucs here due to continuity, but if the Bucs offense comes together quickly with even 80% of the hyped potential, the rematch may go the other direction.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 New Orleans Saints 31
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers roster returns mostly intact and will pick apart the worst defense in the NFL last season. Jimmy G will be handing the ball off to some combination of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon, whom hasn’t played in two years due to injuries. We’ll get a first look of the Cardinals offense with DeAndre Hopkins. It’ll be a clash of offensive schemes. SF’s playing calling was close to a 50/50 split run/pass last season. The Cards ran 86% of plays out of shotgun, passed 61% of the time and deployed 4-5 wide receivers 31% of the time per playerprofiler.com. The Cards will certainly have the firepower to move the ball on a solid defense, but SF will try to control the speed of the game with the run. The Cards will be an entertaining watch this season.
Arizona Cardinals 24 San Francisco 49ers 28
Dallas Cowboys at LA Rams
The Rams were tied for the most passing attempts last season and will be throwing much of week 1 2020. The running back situation is a three-way split and the poor offensive line from last season returns. The defense will attempt to put pressure on Dak Prescott, but the solid offensive line should help and the Cowboys have too many offensive weapons to not put up points. The Dallas secondary is questionable; if they can’t consistent get to Geoff the Rams will have the ability to throw on the Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys 24 LA Rams 17
Monday Night Football
Pittsburg Steelers at NY Giants
The Giants will have top targets Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram together after only four healthy games together last season. Not that it’ll help Daniel Jones much, the Steelers defense rolls in being one of the best in the league in 2019 in forced turnovers and sacks last season. Big Ben will be healthy and have a healthy JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, James Washington, upcoming rookie Chase Claypool and free agent acquisition Eric Ebron. The Giants defense is still a work-in-progress and won’t be able to get the pressure or make the stops needed to win.
Pittsburg Steelers 24 NY Giants 10
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Von Miller is injured and could miss the season. A real loss considering Bradley Chubb missed all of last season with an injury and was drafted to pair with Miller. Drew Lock was proficient in his starts last season again bad teams and is now breaking in a new receiving core outside Courtland Sutton. The Titans return most major pieces and the offense will again revolve around Derrick Henry. I expect Mike Vrabel to cook up a good scheme to keep Lock off balance and run Henry down Denver’s throat.
Tennessee Titans 20 Denver Broncos 14
