-Originally published 10/18/21-
Upon Further Review – Week 7
#2 Iowa and #11 Kentucky have fallen from the unbeaten this week leaving 11 teams without a blemish. #17 Arkansas, #18 Arizona State, #19 BYU, #20 Florida, #25 Texas all took losses in the top-25. The Iowa and Florida losses were the most stunning. The Hawkeyes dumpster fire offense was on full display and the defense couldn’t bail the team out after giving up 464 yards of offense and losing the turnover battle 4-1 in a 24-7 whipping Iowa has two weeks off then finishes @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, @Nebraska in a less stellar lineup but it’ll never be a sure thing with the Hawkeyes. Circle your calendar for Wisconsin in two weeks. Florida threw the keys to freshman QB Anthony Richardson in a shootout with LSU that saw the Tigers pull it out 49-42. Emory Jones finished 12/19-161yds 1-2 Td-Int, Richardson 10/19-167yds, 3-2 Td-Int and 37 Rush/yds and a rushing Td. Will he finally take the starting job? The Gators have a bye week before they host #1 Georgia. The other big story coming out was the official announcement that Ed Orgeron will finish out the season but won’t return next year. He’s officially out in Baton Rouge. Player transfers and opt-outs have already begun prior to the announcement and will definitely continue but LSU can still make a mess in the SEC. The remaining schedule is @Ole Miss, @Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana-Monroe (yawn) and Texas A&M.
The Pac-12 took a blow with Arizona State losing 35-21 at Utah. It made Oregon’s survival at home to California Friday night 24-17 huge as the Ducks are the only one loss team remaining in the conference. The West coast is about to be shut out of the playoffs again. The ACC is teetering on the edge with 6-0 Wake Forest, 5-1 NC State, and 5-1 Pittsburg all still in play. WF and NC State will play each other in the regular season as part of the Atlantic division. Pitt would avoid both in the regular season and wouldn’t meet either unless it made the ACC Conference Championship. Still, it’ll be tough for any to finish with fewer than two losses and still in the playoff conversation. I would project the playoffs to be represented by the Big 10, Big 12, SEC, and possibly Cincinnati or a conference will get two teams in.
Ole Miss and Tennessee had a wild finish. The Rebels lead by two scores most of the game but the Vols cut the lead to five with a couple minutes left. Tennessee failed to convert a 4th down and turned the ball back over to Ole Miss with 54 seconds left. The home crowd was upset with the spot given (short of a 1st down-giving the ball back to Ole Miss) and fans threw debris on the field for over 20 minutes causing a pause of play. When the game finally started Tennessee forced a 3-and-out with and preserved the clock with its timeouts. Hooker went down at QB and former starter Joe Milton came in for the final couple plays that resulted in a dropped touchdown pass and a Milton scramble out of bounds in an odd finale to an odd game.
The schedule is hollow this week. Zero games feature matchups between two top-25 teams. #9 Michigan State, #11 Iowa, #15 Kentucky, #19 Auburn, #20 Baylor (25% of top-20 teams) are all off and few ranked teams playing this week have challenging matchups on paper. It’s a great weekend to do Halloween activities and skip most of the schedule.
Top Watches
Must Watch: 3:30pm – #8 Oklahoma State (6-0) @ Iowa State (4-2) – FOX
Oklahoma State and Oregon are both picks of mine to lose. A loss by the Cowboys wouldn’t be an eliminator for the playoffs or Big 12 Championship but it would be a big win to get the Cyclones back on track and push OSU to the edge of elimination from either race. Oregon/UCLA should be higher scoring if that’s your taste.
Audible: Noon – Northwestern (3-3) @ #6 Michigan (6-0) – FOX
Michigan can’t look ahead to MSU next week. Northwestern isn’t a good squad but the noon slate is slow so keep an eye on the Wildcats trying to play spoiler.
Check In: 7:30pm – South Carolina (4-3) @ #17 Texas A&M (5-2) – SECN
The Aggies should win here but they aren’t upset proof and SC could clamp down on a limited offense.
Underrated: 7:30pm – #18 NC State (5-1) @ Miami (2-4) – ESPN2
Miami is falling apart but jobs are on the line and the opportunity the knock off NC State will keep the Hurricanes in high gear.
Small Screen: 7:00pm – Nevada (5-1) @ Fresno State (5-2) – FS2
A shootout in the Mountain West. One of the top watches of the day.
Late Night Snack: 7:30pm – Utah (4-2) @ Oregon State (4-2) – PAC12
Not late-night games this week and you’re not staying up until midnight for Hawaii.
Week 8 – Picks and Watch Guide
Weekday Slate
Wednesday, Oct. 20th
7:30pm – #14 Coastal Carolina (6-0) @ Appalachian St (4-2) – ESPN2
Thursday, Oct. 21st
7:30pm – Tulane (1-5) @ #21 SMU (6-0) – ESPN
7:30pm – Florida Atlantic (3-3) @ Charlotte (4-2) – CBSSN
7:30pm – Louisiana (5-1) @ Arkansas State (1-5) – ESPNU
11:00pm – San Jose State (3-4) @ UNLV (0-6) – CBSSN
Friday, Oct. 22nd
6:00pm – Middle Tennessee (2-4) @ UConn (1-7) – CBSSN
7:00pm – Memphis (4-3) @ UCF (3-3) – ESPN2
9:30pm – Colorado State (3-3) @ Utah State (4-2) – CBSSN
10:30pm – Washington (2-4) @ Arizona (0-6) – ESPN2
Two undefeated squads try to stay that way this week. In the gritty Sun Belt App St turned the ball over 4 times in a 41-13 loss to Louisiana last week. They’ll run into an offensive buzz saw in CC coming off a bye this week. The Mountaineers aren’t finished and CC should be careful. I don’t know how many times I’ve written not to sleep on Tulane but the Green Wave’s defense will try to stop the hammer that is SMU’s offense. Other viewing options Thursday include Louisiana’s top offense taking on Butch Davis’s ASU Red Wolves who’ve put up 33+ in four games this season, two decent Conference-USA teams in FAU and Charlotte duking it out and tanking San Jose State slopping it up with UNLV. Friday’s slate is full of sad teams heading in very bad directions. Memphis/UCF is probably the most entertaining. Colorado St/Utah St are still in the Mountain West conference race for now.
Noon Slate – Saturday Oct. 23rd
Fresh Squeezed
Noon – #16 Wake Forest (6-0) @ Army (4-2) – CBSSN
WF continues to keep a zero in the loss column despite an unimpressive resume. 5-2 Virginia is the most impressive win for the Demon Deacons. A non-conference loss to Army won’t affect the ACC race but will put WF on the edge of playoff elimination. Army’s defense is top-10 in the country and Wake has been giving up over 170 yards on the ground. This could call for an upset.
Pick: Army
Lower Grove
Noon – #2 Cincinnati (6-0) @ Navy (1-5) – ESPN2
Noon – #3 Oklahoma (7-0) @ Kansas (1-5) – ESPN
Noon – Illinois (2-5) @ #7 Penn State (5-1) – ABC
Noon – Northwestern (3-3) @ #6 Michigan (6-0) – FOX
Noon – Kansas State (3-3) @ Texas Tech (5-2) – FS1
Noon – Northern Illinois (5-2) @ Central Michigan (4-3) – ESPNU
The noon slate this week is horrific. Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and Penn State should all massacre inferior opponents. QB Sean Clifford hasn’t been ruled out against Illinois after his injury against Iowa and hopefully two weeks off allowed him to heal. With no clear backup to get the job done the Nittany Lions should still be able to roll. Michigan has to take care of business against Northwestern before playing Michigan State next. Texas Tech and Kansas State makeup the bottom of the Big 12 at this point, but should be one of the better games. Northern Illinois (3-0) and CMU (2-1) are in the MAC title race. Realistically, find something better to do with your time and check-in back around 3.
Afternoon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
The afternoon slate has several interesting games….that actually feature pretty miserable teams. Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa State, Oregon, LSU, Clemson all have major turmoil on one side of the ball (Wisconsin, Iowa State, Clemson), using the talented roster (LSU, Clemson), or they’re somehow winning (Purdue, Oregon) with questionable on-field performance. That being said, all teams have some combination of competent coaching, top talent, good chemistry, workable schedule, or adaptability to trend upwards for the remainder of the season.
3:00pm – Wisconsin (3-3) @ #25 Purdue (4-2) – BTN
The Boilermakers turned Iowa over four times coming out of the bye and picked apart the defense. How typical of Purdue to win a massive game while heading towards a mediocre record. Wisconsin still can’t throw the ball and won’t learn halfway through the season at this point unless they can switch to a dramatically different QB, which they would have already if such a player was on the roster. If Purdue really did make dramatic changes out of the bye and can built on last week they’ll win against a team that’s more limited on offense than Iowa and forces fewer turnovers. The Boilermakers simply need to put more points on the board against the Badgers to win.
Pick: Purdue
3:30pm – #8 Oklahoma State (6-0) @ Iowa State (4-2) – FOX
OSU came from behind to lock down Texas last week and now has wins over the Longhorns and is the only team to defeat Baylor. ISU is one of the biggest road blocks to staying perfect with rival Oklahoma waiting at the end of the year. Kansas, @West Virginia, TCU, and @Texas Tech are in-between. The Cowboys are rightfully getting credit for their defense but four games have been within a possession and all six have been decided by 11 points or less. The 32 points scored against Texas is the highest total the Cowboys have scored all year. ISU has lost in the two games they’ve been challenged this season (Iowa, Baylor) and will play a defensive game like OSU. The Cyclones have an opportunity to pull an upset if they can move the ball.
Pick: Iowa State
3:30pm – #10 Oregon (5-1) @ UCLA (5-2) – ABC
Oregon is a bad bad football team. Really bad. They’re the only one loss team left in the Pac-12 and that could end here and shut the door on playoffs for the conference again. The Ducks shouldn’t have come off a bye and allowed a horrendous 1-5 California team to nearly push them to OT. Outside of the dominating win over Ohio State and a Stony Brook win the Ducks beat Fresno State by 7, lost to mediocre Stanford by 7, and gave up too many points in a 40-19 win against dumpster fire Arizona. UCLA has lost its bigger games this season against Arizona State and Fresno State but they knocked off LSU and Stanford. The run game has put up over 550 yards of offense the past two weeks and neither QB is dependable. The Bruins can play spoiler for the Ducks, and the conference, at home.
Pick: UCLA
3:30pm – LSU (4-3) @ #12 Ole Miss (5-1) – CBS
The Rebels survived a solid Vols defense, several hundred water bottles, a hailmary, a golf ball, and the hostel Nashville road environment in sealing a 31-26 victory. The defense let the Vols back in the game late but is showing to be more consistent. LSU has been consistently inconsistent but shocked the Gators which might be more indicative of their defense falling apart and QB issues. At a result, we have another possible shoot out on deck. Maybe the Tigers rally to send coach out with a bang but Ole Miss is just better on both sides of the ball right now.
Pick: Ole Miss
3:30pm – Clemson (4-2) @ #23 Pittsburgh (5-1) – ESPN
The Tigers came back from the bye and still look stunted offensively in barley dropping Syracuse 17-14. Pitt is putting up 48.3ppg and QB Kenny Pickett is completing almost 70% of his passes with a 21-1 Td-Int ratio. A top-5 offense and top-25 defense has the Panthers looking like the top squad in the ACC.
Pick: Pittsburg
Lower Grove
3:30pm – Maryland (4-2) @ Minnesota (4-2) – ESPN2
3:30pm – BYU (5-2) @ Washington State (4-3) FS1
4:00pm – Boston College (4-2) @ Louisville (3-3) – ACCN
4:00pm – East Carolina (3-3) @ Houston (5-1) – ESPNU
The depth of afternoon games is a reflection of the poor slate. Minnesota and Maryland are two quality teams in the deep Big 10 conference that have been left for dead. The Terps are on the upswing and could move up to contend next season but it isn’t in the cards this year. BYU has fallen back to earth while WSU has won a few games after being expected to finish at the bottom of the Pac-12. Boston College still has a solid roster to win games in the ACC. The East Carolina Pirates can either punch up and fight with the Cougars or play dead and get flattened.
Evening Slate
Fresh Squeezed
7:30pm – USC (3-3) @ #13 Notre Dame (5-1) – NBC
Both squads are coming off byes hoping for the season to trend upwards from here. ND has won the past three in the series. The highlight is the two brands involved, the lowlights are numerous. USC can’t run the ball, struggles to pass, the defense isn’t stellar and TE Michael Trigg was carted off the field against Utah two weeks ago. ND has juggled QB’s, struggles to run, can’t stop the run and the offensive line has been in crisis. A this point ND is still in the playoff picture and the schedule has softened with North Carolina, Navy, Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Stanford all on the schedule with a combined 16-17
record. USC is 2-3 in conference play and basically out of everything that matters this season. Freshman QB Jaxson Dart underwent surgery for a torn meniscus and hopes to hit the field again before the season ends. Dart looks like the future while Kedon Slovis may be auditioning as some else’s reclamation/transfer project next season.
Pick: Notre Dame
7:30pm – Utah (4-2) @ Oregon State (4-2) – PAC12
Beaver fever! Utah is the top team in the South and OSU is tied with rival Oregon for first in the Pac-12 North. Utah is thriving behind QB Cameron Rising who is 3-0 with wins over Washington State, USC, and Arizona State after the QB change. Both squads still win with defense and the ground game. OSU is putting up 242.5 rushing ypg and coming off a bye. The Beavers are converting on 52% of 3rd downs vs 37% for Utah and had more time to prepare. I think the Beavers should win another big game.
Pick: Oregon State
Lower Grove
7:00pm – Tennessee (4-3) @ #4 Alabama (6-1) – ESPN
7:00pm – #24 UTSA (7-0) @ Louisiana Tech (2-4) – TBD
7:00pm – #22 San Diego State (6-0) @ Air Force (6-1) – CBSSN
7:00pm – Nevada (5-1) @ Fresno State (5-2) – FS2
7:30pm – #5 Ohio State (5-1) @ Indiana (2-4) – ABC
7:30pm – South Carolina (4-3) @ #17 Texas A&M (5-2) – SECN
7:30pm – #18 NC State (5-1) @ Miami (2-4) – ESPN2
7:30pm – Georgia Tech (3-3) @ Virginia (5-2) – ACCN
The top shelf is actually two battles in the Mountain West with San Diego State flying in to battle Air Force and Fresno State hosting Nevada. AF/SDS is a coin-flip defensive battle. The real action is between two of the top arms in the country in Jake Haener for Fresno and Carson Strong for Nevada. Both teams put up 440+yards and 36ppg. It’ll be one of the top watches of the evening. Alabama is still righting the ship with an uneven start against Mississippi State before blowing them out 49-9. Tennessee might play it closer with a solid defensive performance but the Vols did struggle against Ole Miss’s defense last week so maybe another 49-9 final is in play. UTSA finally broke into the Top-25 but they’ll have to watch out for a LT team that played Mississippi State, NC State, and SMU within a possession. The Roadrunners are still better on both sides of the ball and should move to 8-0. Indiana played MSU close and could have beat the Spartans but the team probably won’t find a win against a Buckeye team heading in the right direction. Texas A&M should hammer SC but the Gamecocks have overachieved and the Aggies have had personnel issues and arguably underachieved. In ACC action, one of the preseason favorites in Miami hosts one of the current favorites in NC State and the offensively gifted Virginia Cavaliers host the up-and-coming GT Yellow jackets.
Late Night
11:59pm – New Mexico State (1-6) @ Hawaii (3-4) – TBD
How nice of CFB to not keep us up on the east coast. No games tip after the 7:30 slate unless you want to watch the Rainbow Warriors torch the Aggies on what is technically Sunday morning.
