-Originally published 10/11/21-
Upon Further Review – Week 6
Another week, another notable upset. Ranked squads pretty much took care of business this week with #4 Penn State, #13 Arkansas, #18 Auburn, and #21 Texas all falling in matchups to other ranked squads with higher rankings. The lone exception is Arkansas who lost on a 2-pont conversion at #17 Ole Miss. The two big upsets this week were both in the top-10. #10 BYU hosted feisty Boise State and went down due to 4 turnovers after outgaining the Broncos and #1 Alabama lost on the road to Texas A&M which deserves a bigger breakdown.
Coming into the game at 3-2 and out of the top 25 the Aggies had fallen out of the National spotlight and the mind of the casual fan. Texas A&M was given a chance to knockoff the Tide in the preseason because of all the talent at every position group excluding QB and they were expected to be 5-0 when the Tide came to play. No one should be surprised when Texas A&M knocked off Alabama with a backup QB, it was the strength at every other group that was the Aggies hype. What’s impressive is how it was done and the streaks that were broken in obtaining such a win. A turnover in the red zone, a special teams touchdown, four sacks and making plays when they mattered made the difference in a game where Alabama out gained the Aggies 522-379 offensively, were more efficient on 3rd down (9/19-47% Alabama – 4/10-40% A&M), and had a higher average per run play (4.5-3.5) to lead the commanding ground game. It was making plays when they needed to that won the game. Saban’s streak of 100 straight wins against unranked teams dating back to 2007 was broken and his 24-0 record against former assistants now has a blemish. The top 25 poll is essentially the top 15-20% tile of teams season with roughly 130 D1 teams from 2007-present (it fluctuated year-to-year with teams moving in and out). Not losing to anyone outside in the “lower” 80-85% of college football for almost 15 years? That’s not consistency, that’s dominance. So is winning 24 of 25 against anyone that’s ever coached on your staff. A&M already has SEC West losses to Mississippi State and Arkansas so Alabama is still in going to the SEC title game if they win out and very much in the playoff picture.
Penn State lost QB Sean Clifford in the 1st half against Iowa on Saturday and backup Ta’Quan Roberson managed 34 yards passing and 2 interceptions in the 2nd. Did Clifford’s loss make a profound impact? He was 15/25 with 2 Ints and a rushing Td before he went down. He wasn’t very productive but the Nittany Lions were better off running the ball every play than allowing Roberson to throw 21 times. On to the Boilermakers for Iowa and they’ve had two weeks to prep. Wins over UConn, Illinois, and a big win over Oregon State with losses to Notre Dame and Minnesota aren’t very impressive for Purdue but they’re a frisky team. Iowa better be careful.
The Sooner fans have chanted and here he is. True freshman QB Caleb Williams ignited the Sooners and brought them back from 21 down in the Red River Rivalry. Williams didn’t play his senior year of high school football so this was his first meaningful game since his junior year of high school in 2019. Lincoln Riley has shown support for Spencer Rattler going forward so we’ll play the back-and-forth game for a week or two until he decides to start Williams full-time. TCU’s defense is the best group the Sooners have seen this season and would be a test for the true freshman. One more note on the RRR. Texas narrowly missed sending the game to OT. Oklahoma was setting up for a game winning field goal when RB Kennedy Brooks broke out for a 33 yard TD run and scored with 1 second left. The officials added two seconds to the clock before kickoff but standing Brooks up or tackling him short of the end zone might have cause time to expire before Oklahoma had a chance to use its final timeout, forcing overtime. A footnote for an awesome game where every play (and second) mattered.
We have 13 undefeated teams left in the county. #1 Georgia, #2 Iowa, #3 Cincinnati, #4 Oklahoma, #8 Michigan, #10 Michigan State, #11 Kentucky, #12 Oklahoma State, #15 Coastal Carolina, #16 Wake Forest, #23 SMU, #24 San Diego State and unranked UTSA. Georgia and Kentucky will meet this weekend and Oklahoma State will be an underdog to Texas on the road while few others face challenging matchups. The slate as a whole isn’t very exciting for week 7 on a “big picture” scale but there are plenty of intriguing matchups.
Big 10 – 3
Big 12 – 2
SEC – 2
AAC – 2
ACC – 1
C-USA – 1
Mountain West -1
Sun Belt – 1
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Top Watches
Must Watch: 7:00pm – TCU (3-2) @ #4 Oklahoma (6-0) – ABC
Game Day is heading to Athens for #1 Georgia and #11 Kentucky but the spread is (rightfully) three touchdowns. Oklahoma is at risk after a huge Texas win and possible QB switch. Perhaps starting Caleb Williams is the key to a high flying offense but is a true freshman the guy for to play against this defense?
Audible: 7:30pm – #13 Ole Miss (4-1) @ Tennessee (4-2) – SECN
Don’t be bored Saturday night. If the evening headline games disappoint turn to this firework show. Matt Corral can still win Heisman and these teams could go over 100.
Check In: 3:30pm – Purdue (3-2) @ #2 Iowa (6-0) – ABC
Purdue has murdered itself with turnovers this season and Iowa loves to force them so this seems like a match made in heaven for the Hawkeyes right? I wouldn’t dismiss the Boilermakers. The Boilermakers are in every game, they’ve had two weeks to prepare and the Hawkeyes are looking ahead to Madison next week.
Underrated: 7:00pm – Clemson (3-2) @ Syracuse (3-3) – ESPN – Friday
The Tigers were dead, buried and forgotten rightfully so but let’s not forget they can still rip off seven straight and make the ACC Championship game with some help. The Tigers are coming off a bye and certainly the offense has improved. The Orange have been blown out the past two seasons by Clemson but lost in the final minute in ’18 and won in ’17 under Dino Babers who again has a top defensive team. Should be a fun narrative either way.
Small Screen: 3:30pm – Kent St (3-3) @ Western Michigan (4-2) – ESPNU
QB’s Dustin Crumb and Kaleb Eleby will garner some NFL attention in what is probably a top-5 game of the weekend from an entertainment standpoint.
Late Night Snack: 10:00pm – #18 Arizona St (5-1) @ Utah (3-2) – ESPN
A massive PAC12 game that could help push the Sun Devils towards a South win, a conference title game appearance and possibly more. They’re massively underrated at this point but a win should shoot them up the rankings.
Week 7 – Picks and Watch Guide
Tuesday, Oct. 12th
7:30pm – Appalachian St (4-1) @ Louisiana (4-1) – ESPN2
Thursday, Oct. 14th
7:30pm – Navy (1-4) @ Memphis (3-3) – ESPN
7:30pm – Georgia Southern (2-4) @ South Alabama (3-2) – ESPNU
Friday, Oct. 15th
7:00pm – Marshall (3-3) @ North Texas (1-4) – CBSSN
7:00pm – Clemson (3-2) @ Syracuse (3-3) – ESPN
10:30pm – California (1-4) @ #9 Oregon (4-1) – ESPN
10:30pm – #24 San Diego State (5-0) @ San Jose State (3-3) – CBSSN
A rare Tuesday game on weekday slate including a big matchup in the Sun Belt between Louisiana and Appalachian St. Thursday isn’t quite as appealing with Memphis and South Alabama picking up losses recently but Friday has several big games as well. Marshall isn’t thrilling and QB Grant Wells is having a miserable season after breaking out last year but he’s 4th in passing yards right now with 2,000 yards on the season. Clemson and Syracuse meet in a defensive battle with the Tigers coming off a bye and Orangemen coming off a close Wake Forest loss. Clemson is still out of the playoff picture but we’ll see if any improvements have been made after two weeks off for the Tigers to rip through the rest of conference play undefeated or if the Orange can play spoiler. Oregon also returns after a bye following a collapse to Stanford in a 31-24 loss which means the Ducks haven’t won a game since 9/25 against lowly Arizona. Offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead had an emergency surgery last week and will reportedly be back assisting for Friday. We’ll see what kind of shape the program and passing game are in when they hit the field again against a California team that’s only managed a win against FCS Sacramento State so far this season. Defending Mountain West Champion San Jose State received a blow last week in a 32-14 thumping at the hands of Colorado State. Sand Diego State’s resume is still hollow but the squad is winning games and will look to add to SJS’s misery in what should be a competitive game.
Saturday, October 16th – Noon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
Noon – #12 Oklahoma State (5-0) @ #25 Texas (4-2) – FOX
OSU went on a decent run beating Boise State, Kansas State and gave Baylor its first loss of the season 24-14 before heading into a bye last week. OSU actually lost the turnover battle against Baylor 3-0 and the Cowboys have a -1 turnover ratio for the season. A statistic that doesn’t bear out well for teams that hopes to finish strong. An offense that only averages 25.4ppg and a defense that’s only allowed 18.6ppg and 305ypg will have to kick into another gear to stop a top-20 offense in UT averaging 44.5ppg, 5th in the country. Texas’s defense is one of the worst in the country and giving up plays but OSU hasn’t show the ability to take advantage and keep pace with the Longhorns. Casey Thompson has now completed over 67% of his passes for 1,095yards and a 14-3 Td-Int ratio with 3 more TDs on the ground.
Pick: Texas 34-24
Noon – UCF (3-2) @ #3 Cincinnati (5-0) – ABC
Cincy is exactly where they want to be after the Alabama loss. Currently in the top 3 of the AP poll and positioned to move up if Georgia or Iowa fall, which is important with the weak remaining schedule for the Bearcats. UCF has four games decided by a touchdown or less this season. They’re averaging 36.8ppg and 469ypg. The Bearcats are putting up 41ppg game and have looked good on both sides of the ball while posting a +7 turnover margin. The win streak should continue.
Pick: Cincinnati 41-24
Noon – #20 Florida (4-2) @ LSU (3-3) – ESPN
LSU is scrambling to find answers after getting crushed 42-21 by Kentucky last outing and not even making it onto the scoreboard until the game was already 21-0 in the 3rd. The Tigers had more talent but coach O can’t get it out of them. With wins over Central Michigan, McNeese State and Mississippi State by a field goal and losses to UCLA, Auburn and Kentucky with Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas and Texas A&M still on the schedule the season looks bleak. The Gators have losses by a combined 5 points to Alabama and Kentucky and are going to be double-digit favorites in Baton Rouge. The Gators have a top-10 offense putting up 504ypg although the point totals don’t match up with the yardage, they’re barely top-40 in ppg. Florida needs to hang onto the ball (-1 turnover margin), looks flat at times and we’d all like to see more Anthony Richardson, the freshman QB, on the field. A upset is possible but not probable.
Pick: Florida 42-30
Lower Grove
Noon – #21 Texas A&M (4-2) @ Missouri (3-3) – SECN
Noon – #10 Michigan State (6-0) @ Indiana (2-3) – FS1
Noon – Auburn (4-2) @ #17 Arkansas (4-2) – TBD
Noon – Nebraska (3-4) @ Minnesota (3-2) – ESPN2
12:30 – Duke (3-3) @ Virginia (4-2) – ESPN3
Texas A&M has new life after two losses and injuries looked to deflate the season early. Missouri was supposed to be in the mix as an SEC East disrupter but has losses to Kentucky, Tennessee, and Boston College. Lucky for the Tigers they also still have QB Connor Bazelak (1,682 Yds, 67%, 12-5 Td-Int), an offense scoring 37.8ppg and converting on almost 53% of 3rd downs. Indiana will still challenge the Spartans but MSU has proven to be a real threat in the Big 10. The Hoosiers are coming off a bye but the offense is putrid and Penix is probably out for the year. Speaking of the Big 10, it must be hard to be a Husker fan. Big turnovers are constantly hurting Nebraska who had a shot at Michigan and couldn’t follow through as Scott Frost falls to 0-10 against ranked teams. Minnesota is still banged up but coming off a bye and hanging in. Both squads are decent even if they aren’t playing for much anymore. Auburn and Arkansas are two squads that have been exciting performers this season but both are out of playoff and SEC West contention with Arkansas trying to avoid a 3-game losing streak. The game will be entertaining even if the steaks are low, I’ll take the Razorbacks at home. Speaking of teams not playing for much, Virginia is still technically involved in ACC title stakes for now with the country’s leading passer, Brennan Armstrong, with 2,460 passing yards.
Afternoon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
3:30pm –#11 Kentucky (6-0) @ #1 Georgia (6-0) – CBS
In the lone matchup of ranked teams this weekend I don’t expect it to be close. No JT Daniels again against Auburn and more Stesen Bennet to the tune of 14/21 for 231 and 2 Tds still meant a 34-10 victory. Auburn seemed like it could have had more plays with passes that were just missed and not caught but they did put up 318 yards on Georgia. Kensky has a real defense top-20 defense in yards and points allowed and held Florida to 20 and LSU to 21 in wins but Georgia doesn’t suffer the inconstancy of either of those squads. We’ll believe the upset when we see it.
Pick: Georgia 35-17
3:30pm – #19 BYU (5-1) @ Baylor (5-1) – ESPN
Ranked #10 with no statistically outliner and hosting a potent passing attack in Boise State, BYU was on upset alert toppled 26-17. Ironically, the Cougar defense held and only allowed 312 yards while putting up 413. 4 turnovers was the culprit in the game. Already betting underdogs at Baylor, BYU has to show the early rise wasn’t a facade. The Bears are a much better squad than BSU and hold a +6 turnover margin. They’re only giving up 17.9ppg and 320 yards margin.
Pick: Baylor
3:30pm – Pittsburgh (4-1) @ Virginia Tech (3-2) – ESPN2
It a wild early season with Wake Forest and Pittsburgh drivers ACC. Kenny Pickett is balling with 1,731 yards, 72% completion and 19-1 Td-Int ratio. He has Pitt putting up over 52 points and 550 yards per game. A road game against puttering, but always dangerous, Virginia Tech starts off the home stretch that continues with Clemson, Miami, @Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and @Syracuse to put the Panthers to the test. Be along for the ride.
Pick: Pittsburg
Lower Grove
3:30pm – Purdue (3-2) @ #2 Iowa (6-0) – ABC
3:30pm – Miami (2-3) @ North Carolina (3-3)
3:30pm – Kent St (3-3) @ Western Michigan (4-2) – ESPNU
3:30pm – Fresno State (4-2) @ Wyoming (4-1) – FS2
The loser of Miami/UNC will have loss #4 and the winner might have a winning record. How did we get here? Not even halfway through the season and a game that was supposed to decide the winner of the Coastal division in the ACC and decide who was going to challenge Clemson in the ACC Championship game for a possible playoff spot is nonexistent. Neither team is playing for the playoffs, a conference title or a BCS game. Bowl eligibility isn’t a sure thing. Purdue is always a feisty team and they’ve had two weeks to prepare for Iowa. The Hawkeyes shouldn’t be caught napping after a big win over Penn State last week and a rise to #2 in the AP. Western Michigan and Kent State collide for a big MAC contest. Western was rocked 45-20 by Ball State last week and both played brutal non-conference opponents (Texas A&M, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Pittsburg) to toughen them up for conference play. Wyoming fell to undefeated Air Force 24-14 in Mountain West play last week but Fresno State is up next a crowded conference race.
Evening Slate
Fresh Squeezed
7:00pm – TCU (3-2) @ #4 Oklahoma (6-0) – ABC
Lincoln Riley will have a hard time keeping Caleb Williams off the field. The results, even in a 2 quarter same size, are undeniable. Other than an FBS win early in the season it might be the best 2 quarters of offense the Sooners have seen all season. TCU will be the best defense Oklahoma has seen to this point and that will be surely be problematic for a true freshman so maybe Rattler is the way to go. Either way between the controversy at QB and inconsistency elsewhere, Gary Patterson will have the Horned Frogs ready to put the Sooners on upset alert.
Pick: Oklahoma 31-27
7:30pm – #22 NC State (4-1) @ Boston College (4-1) – ACCN
Both teams will be fresh off a bye. BC was last seen fumbling away the game winning touchdown against Clemson and NC State was pulled out back-to-back touchdown games against Clemson and Louisiana Tech. Due to wacky scheduling Wake Forest is 1st in the ACC Atlantic at 4-0 in conference play, NC State is 2nd at 1-0 and BC is 6th at 0-1. NCS has looked better a little better on both sides of the ball so far and more importantly they have their starting QB in Devin Leary. Dennis Grosel on BC’s side needed two weeks off more than anyone and hopefully the BC staff worked him into the offense and the expected starter the rest of the way with Phil Jurkovec out. A big game in wide-open ACC.
Pick NC State 34-31
Lower Grove
6:00pm – Rice (2-3) @ UTSA (6-0) – ESPN+
7:00pm – #5 Alabama (5-1) @ Mississippi St (3-2) – ESPN
7:00pm – Liberty (5-1) @ UL Monroe (2-3) – ESPN+
7:30pm – #13 Ole Miss (4-1) @ Tennessee (4-2) – SECN
7:30pm – Iowa St (3-2) @ Kansas St (3-2) – ESPN2
7:30pm – Stanford (3-3) @ Washington St (3-3) – ESPNU
8:00pm – Army (4-1) @ Wisconsin (2-3) – BTN
The Roadrunners have dashed out to 6-0 behind RB Sincere McCormick (661 yrds, 6 Td) and QB Frank Harris (1,475 yds, 69.8%, 12-3 Td-Int) and will be heavy favorites to move to 7-0. Liberty will continue to roll against UL Monroe but duel threat QB Malik Wallis is enjoyable to watch. The schedule gets tougher in November with Ole Miss, Louisiana, and Army coming up. Saban will be fired up and look to splatter Mississippi St all over Davis Wade stadium but the Tide should be careful. Another road game, a sneaky coach in Mike Leach and a team that’s treading in the right direction means we might at least see the spread covered but the Bulldogs. Iowa State is hoping to notch its biggest win of the year against Kansas State. Yikes, with wins over Northern Iowa, UNLV, and Kansas the Cyclones have a long way to go towards earning respectability again. Washington St pulled the rug out from under the Oregon State Beavers and their 4-game win streak on Saturday. The Cougars and Cardinals are both playing spoilers in the PAC12.
The Badgers will be favorited against Army this week, but maybe they shouldn’t be. A season-high 24 points snuck out of the Wisconsin offense last week like a silent fart between two buttcheeks in a 24-0 stinker against Illinois. The passing (still a fart joke) game was invisible (still a fart joke) as Mertz went 10/19 for 100yds and a pick (not going there) in a disgusting display. This is still the #2 ranked defense in yards allowed and the run game rolled up 391 yards but maybe they should just run Army’s offense. The Knights offense is top-10 in yards allowed and the QBs have a combined 33 passing attempts this season but still field a better group then the Badgers. Neither team will be looking to throw, obviously. On the complete opposite side of the spectrum, Ole Miss and Tennessee could be a game that finishes with over 100 points. The Vols have scored 34+ in 5 games this season average 41.5ppg and 474ypg. The Rebels have scored 43+ in 4 games and average 46.2ppg and 561.6ypg.
Late Night Slate
8:30pm – UCLA (4-2) @ Washington (2-3) – FOX
9:00pm – Louisiana Tech (2-3) @ UTEP (5-1) – ESPN+
9:00pm – Air Force (5-1) @ Boise State (3-3) – FS1
10:00pm – #18 Arizona St (5-1) @ Utah (3-2) – ESPN
10:30pm – Hawaii (3-3) @ Nevada (4-1) – CBSSN
The late night lineup is stellar this week. The PAC12 gives us a double-header of electric UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson against Washington and Arizona State on the road against Utah in a massive PAC12 South matchup. If the Sun Devil can survive this week, the Oregon State Beavers are the only team remaining on the schedule that currently have a winning record. The Utes have moved to QB Cameron Rising and looked much more productive including a 22/28 – 306 Yd – 3 Td performance in a 42-26 win against USC last week.
The Mountain West conference offers up two games in heated conference battle as well. Air Force travels to take on Boise State and Nevada hosts Hawaii with all four teams still very much in play for the MW conference title but Nevada sitting at 1-0 in conference play as the only undefeated. BSU will has struggled offensively, partially on the ground but defense help the Broncos defeated #10 BYU last week. Carson Strong for Nevada threw for 377 yards and 6 Tds against inferior New Mexico State last week in limited action. Let’s not forget the UTEP Miners out of C-USA lead by a top-20 in yardage allowed at 301.8ypg and they’re only allowing 22ppg. They’re going for win #6 and bowl eligibility against Louisiana Tech. Head coach Dana Dimel went 5-27 in his first 3 season in El Paso. UTEP has had a winning record or bowl appearance since 2014. They’ve had 14 bowl appearances in their 84 year program history. Six wins in a small conference isn’t a shoe-in for a bowl, but it’s darn close. How often are you excited to be channel flipping for a late night slate? Enjoy.