-Originally published 10/7/21-
Last week’s mega slate wasn’t quite as advertised but the night ended with plenty of excitement. Clemson survived Boston College 19-13 after the 2nd fumble in the fourth quarter for Eagles. If not for the bumble #25 Clemson probably would have fallen to 2-3. As it stands they’re 3-2 but still fell out of the top 25. Across the airwaves #24 Wake Forest survived Louisville 37-24 to remain the only unbeaten ACC team, #22 Auburn and QB Bo Nix rallied to win on the road against LSU, #19 Oklahoma State knocked off #21 Baylor in a surprise battle of unbeaten Big 12 squads, #15 Texas A&M was bullied by Mississippi State, #23 NC State pulled out a 34-27 win against Louisiana Tech and #17 Michigan State fought off pesky Western Kentucky. The late night was capped with Oregon State kicking a field goal as time expired against Washington to move to 4-1, Arizona State rolling #20 UCLA 42-23 and #18 Fresno St getting shocked in Hawaii 27-24. That was just the night slate!
Earlier in the week #5 Iowa crushed Maryland and #13 BYU hammered Utah State in what looked like promising matchups originally. That bled into Saturday afternoon where #1 Alabama and #2 Georgia stifled #12 Ole Miss and #8 Arkansas, taking the air out of two promising games. #4 Penn State, #11 Ohio State, and #16 Coastal Carolina looked dominate as did #14 Michigan who embarrassed Wisconsin at home 38-17 and moved the Badgers to 1-3. #7 Cincinnati look great pushing fading #9 Notre Dame down at home 24-13 and the big upsets were #10 Florida losing at Kentucky 20-13 in a slop fest and #3 Oregon blowing a game and losing to Stanford on the road in 2OT 31-24. With #3, #8, #9, #10 #12, #15, #18, #20, and #21 all going down we’ve seen more losses from the AP Top-25 at this point in the season than ever in the AP polls history.
Must Watch: Noon – #6 Oklahoma (5-0) @ #21 Texas (4-1) – ABC
Edging out Penn St/Iowa because both are still second fiddle to Ohio State in the Big 10. Oklahoma and Texas are the top two squads in the Big 12 and could meet again at the end of the season in the Big 12 Conference Championship, but this game will be more entertaining and will either plant Oklahoma firmly in the driver’s seat for the playoffs or open the door to include Texas in the conversation.
Audible: 7:30pm – #9 Michigan (5-0) @ Nebraska (3-3) – ABC
Nebraska is improving quickly and will challenge the Wolverines. Check-in on a weak evening slate.
Check In: Noon – #11 Michigan State (5-0) @ Rutgers (3-2) – BTN
The Scarlett Knights can sneak up on people and they’ll be in the game against the Spartans.
Underrated: 4:00pm – Oregon State (4-1) @ Washington State (2-3) – PAC12/Noon – South Carolina @ Tennessee – ESPN2
If you can tune in to the PAC12 network check on OSU. Tennessee is looking better and can put up some points but runs up against a solid defense in SC.
Small Screen: 7:00pm – Wyoming (4-0) @ Air Force (4-1) – CBSSN
The two Mountain West favorites coming into the season, Boise State and San Jose State, are struggling leaving the door wide open. Nevada has the best QB in the conference, Fresno State just fell out of the top 25, San Diego State jumped into the #25 spot and then we have these two. Is this quietly the most competitive conference in the country?
Late Night Snack: 9:00pm – Memphis (3-2) @ Tulsa (1-4) – ESPN2
The most competitive matchup on a boring late night slate.
Thursday, Oct. 7th
7:30pm – #15 Coastal Carolina (5-0) @ Arkansas State (1-4) – ESPNU
7:30pm – Houston (4-1) @ Tulane (1-4) – ESPN
CC’s schedule is awful this season and the squad won’t have a chance to break into serious contention for anything. The ceiling might be a #10 rating. QB Grayson McCall is completing over 80% of his passes at 12.9 yards-per-attempt. Houston has been quiet this season but they’re in the AAC hunt and don’t play Cincinnati in the regular season. The Cougars play SMU 10/30 and that’s the toughest game left on the slate. They can’t overlook a Tulane that played a brutal schedule against Oklahoma, Ole Miss, UAB, and feisty East Carolina. The 1-4 record is deceiving.
Friday, Oct. 8th
7:00pm – Temple (3-2) @ #5 Cincinnati (4-0) – ESPN
10:30pm – Stanford (3-2) @ #22 Arizona State (4-1) – ESPN
Two teams in the thick of the playoff hunt make home stands on Friday. The Bearcats look the part to finish 13-0 but last week’s win over Notre Dame in South Bend is the end of quality teams on the schedule. #24 SMU is the only team currently ranked still on the schedule and that could change by game time 11/20. Stanford has grabbed wins over USC and Oregon; two teams that struggle offensively at times as Stanford themselves are trying to find its ground game. ASU beat UCLA, its biggest win by far, 42-23 last week. ASU can move the ball on offense converting over 51% of 3rd downs and averaging over 200 yards rushing and passing but the defense has given up 175.6 rushing ypg the past 3 weeks against better competition which could give the Cardinals tractions. QB Tanner McKee hasn’t thrown an interception this season for Stanford. This is a sneaky good game.
Saturday, Oct 9th – Noon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
Noon – #6 Oklahoma (5-0) @ #21 Texas (4-1) – ABC
The Red River Rivalry brings together what appears to be the top teams in the Big 12. The TCU defense was a speed bump to Texas back Bijan Robinson who popped for 216 yards and 2 Tds on 35 carries in a 32-27 win over TCU. Casey Thompson only was 12/22 for 142 1-1 in limited throwing duties. Oklahoma won 37-31 over Kansas State. The Sooners 4th win of 7 points or fewer this season. The Longhorns have to feel confident at home. This isn’t a playoff elimination if Oklahoma loses. The top two teams in the Big 12 meet for the conference championship so a loss at any point in the season could still mean an appearance, Big 12 title and possibly playoff.
Pick: Texas 42-38
Noon – #13 Arkansas (4-1) @ #17 Ole Miss (4-1) – ESPN
Two great stories up until noon last week. Ole Miss was scoreless at halftime and Arkansas was scoreless for the game as both squads were flattened by Alabama and Georgia respectively. Its unfortunate that one of these teams will pick up its second loss and disappear from the spotlight. Ole Miss with the better QB, playing at home, with a comparable defense and a better performance last week against a top team looks to be the favorite here but this will be an excellent game.
Pick: Ole Miss 34-30
Lower Grove
Noon – Maryland (4-1) @ #7 Ohio State (4-1) – FOX
Noon – #11 Michigan State (5-0) @ Rutgers (3-2) – BTN
Noon – Vanderbilt (2-3) @ #20 Florida (3-2) – SECN
Noon – South Carolina (3-2) @ Tennessee (3-2) – ESPN2
Noon – West Virginia (2-3) @ Baylor (4-1)
Ohio State is steadily improving and should still be the favorite in the Big 10 even with Iowa and Penn State currently ranked higher. Maryland was embarrassed against Iowa but still a solid 2nd tier conference team as is Rutgers. MSU shouldn’t take the Scarlett Knights lightly. Florida should take down Vanderbilt handily but the Gators didn’t stub their toe last week against Kentucky, they smashed their foot. Once thought to be one step behind Georgia in the SEC East Division the Gators now are in the “other” category with the other five schools between Georgia at #1 and Vandy at #7. SC and Tennessee are contributing members to that category. The Gamecocks were only projected to win 3-5 games but the defense keeps them in games and Tennessee may have a definite QB in Hendon Hooker who was 15/19 for 225 and 3 Tds in a 62-24 throat punch to the Missouri Tigers last week. Baylor lost to Oklahoma State in a battle of unbeaten Big 12 squads last week as conference play will start to cannibalize everyone.
Afternoon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
3:30pm – #2 Georgia (5-0) @ #18 Auburn (4-1) – CBS
Former walk-on/“Backup”/partial starting (6-’20, 2-’21) QB Stetson Bennett only had to throw 11 times for 72 yards to knock off Arkansas with the ground game (273 yrds, 3 Tds) and defense doing the rest. Auburn rallied on the road against LSU 24-19 with Bo Nix making big plays a week after getting benched. It’s hard to imagine the Tigers getting close to the Bulldogs after the up-and-down season they’ve been having.
Pick: Georgia 38-10
3:30pm – Boise State (2-3) @ #10 BYU (5-0) – ABC
A game that would have had Boise as a heavy favorite in the preseason. The tables have turned with Boise States offense taking a puke and BYU looking quite officiant, but overranked. BSU is averaging 70ypg rushing at 2 yards per clip which is horrific and has ball security issues with 11 fumbles (4 lost). BYU has 14 Tds and 4 FGs in 19 red zone trips and relies on a ground game averaging 5ypc and a stout defense. That being said, this team doesn’t have any other sticking points statistically that indicate the couldn’t be upset. They eye test says BYU is the better squad and they shouldn’t get tripped up this week but the game could be tighter than expected if Boise’s top-10 passing offense moves the ball more effectively than BYU’s ground game.
Pick: BYU 27-24
3:30pm – #19 Wake Forest (5-0) @ Syracuse (3-2) – ESPN2
The Demon Deacons are the lone undefeated team in the ACC and that makes every game against solid competition an interesting watch. Both defenses are tough. Syracuse is top 12 in yardage allowed and top 5 in sacks. WF is tied for 10th in turnover margin, top 15 in sacks and top 15 in red zone defense. The Orangeman are touting the #21 ranked run game while WF is rolling a balanced top 30 offense (Cuse is #70). WK won its first four games (Old Dominion, Norfolk St, Florida St, Virginia) by 20+ each and survived Louisville 37-34 last week. They should scrap by in a defensive battle this week.
Pick: Wake Forest 20-10
4:00pm – #4 Penn State (5-0) @ #3 Iowa (5-0) – FOX
The #2 and #3 scoring defenses. Iowa’s offense against Maryland looked better but they picked off Maryland’s QB’s six friggin times and scored touchdowns on drives of 59, 10, 26, 45, 65, 82, yards and field goals on 27, 46, 29 yard drives so they had lots of help. Wins over Indiana (#17 at the time), @ Iowa State (#9 at the time), and @ Maryland are all nice but not as meaningful anymore. Penn State’s wins @ Wisconsin (#12 at the time) and last week against Indiana are also less meaningful but the 28-20 victory over Auburn is holding up so far. QB Sean Clifford for PSU is completing over 67% of his passes with a 1-3 Td-Int ratio and he’s only taken 8 sacks this season. With both defenses so stout, I like PSU because the offense can move the ball a little better.
Pick: Penn State 17-6
Lower Grove
3:30pm – #24 SMU (5-0) @ Navy (1-3) – CBSSN
3:30pm – Florida Atlantic (3-2) @ UAB (3-2) – TBD
3:30pm – Middle Tennessee (2-3) @ Liberty (4-1) – ESPN3
3:30pm – Florida State (1-4) @ North Carolina (3-2) – ESPN
4:00pm – Oregon State (4-1) @ Washington State (2-3) – PAC12
SMU still operates a top offense and heads to the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium where Navy rallied and upset UCF last week for win #1. FAU is #1 in the C-USA East and UAB #1 in the West with the squads meeting for a top conference matchup early. QB Malik Willis (1,500+ total yards, 17 total Tds) and the Liberty Flames continue to roll taking on C-USA member Midd Tenn after taking down UAB last week. Florida State grabbed its first win last week and will be a sneaky opponent for UNC who can’t stop anyone on defense. Oregon State is shocking in what was supposed to be a loaded Big 12. The Beavers are averaging 36ppg and converting over 52% of 3rd downs with a balanced offensive attack.
Evening Slate
Fresh Squeezed
7:30pm – #14 Notre Dame (4-1) @ Virginia Tech (3-1) – ACCN
ND just isn’t playing very well in any facet. Heading to VT is a serious concern with Hokies more than capable of pulling an upset. The offense is led by the run game for the Hokies at 138.8ypg and rather limited averaging only 23.5ppg. West Virginia got ahead of them and won 27-23 a couple weeks ago otherwise the defense has been holding opponents to fewer than 16ppg. ND is averaging 80 per game rushing and the offensive line is an issue. If VT can control the clock and get pressure on the QB with a group ranked top 20 in sacks this season then we’ll see an upset.
Pick: VT 24-23
7:30pm – LSU (3-2) @ #16 Kentucky (5-0) – SECN
Ed Orgeron is already on his last leg in Baton Rouge. A loss to the Kentucky wildcats could end his time sooner rather than later with Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas and Texas A&M all still to come this season. The tigers don’t have any excuse. Kentucky is a great story, but this team spent three weeks slipping past Missouri (2-3), Chattanooga (2-2 in FBS), and South Carolina (3-2) by a touchdown or less before playing a real clunker of a game against Florida and coming out on top. It was really an indictment of Florida not being a top-tier team more than Kentucky’s ascension. No fun stats here. LSU should win or else.
Pick: LSU 34-24
Lower Grove
6:00pm – East Carolina (3-2) @ UCF (2-2) – ESPN+
7:00pm – UTSA (5-0) @ Western Kentucky (1-3)
7:00pm – TCU (2-2) @ Texas Tech (4-1) – ESPN
7:00pm – Buffalo (2-3) @ Kent State (2-3) – ESPNU
7:00pm – Wyoming (4-0) @ Air Force (4-1) – CBSSN
7:30pm – #9 Michigan (5-0) @ Nebraska (3-3) – ABC
8:00pm – #1 Alabama (5-0) @ Texas A&M (3-2) – CBS
8:00pm – Utah (2-2) @ USC (3-2) – FOX
The Roadrunners of UTSA are undefeated! And should receive a top-25 ranking if they can survive an always well-coached Western Kentucky team in an underrated spat. Wyoming and Air Force battle as the Cowboys try to remain the only unbeaten in the Mountain West. Kent State and Buffalo fight in an underrated MAC contest and ECU and UCF find themselves in unfamiliar territory. ECU with a winning record and UCF fighting to stay above .500. With Oklahoma and Texas fighting at the top of the Big 12 TCU and Texas Tech are fighting to move upwards in a very competitive conference where Oklahoma State still hasn’t lost and Baylor just took its first L. Neither team is a world beater but they’re both solid squads in an underrated evening game. Michigan will have its hands full in Lincoln as Scott Frost might have finally turned things around for Nebraska. They’re just missing a big win. The Wolverines are hoping they’re not the scalp that checks that box. Alabama should pummel an A&M will lots of talent but no QB and injuries. Utah and USC are fighting for survival in the PAC 12 South with Arizona State looking like the clear favorite.
Late Night
9:00pm – New Mexico (2-3) @ #25 San Diego State (4-0) – FS1
9:00pm – Memphis (3-2) @ Tulsa (1-4) – ESPN2
10:30pm – UCLA (3-2) @ Arizona (0-4) – ESPN
10:30 – New Mexico State (1-5) @ Nevada (3-1) – CBSSN
I have no idea how SDS made it up to #25 in the polls or that they were even that close to consideration. The Aztecs have only played four games and those victories include the following: 48-21 over FBS Towson, 28-10 over lowly, independent and recently just moved out of the FBS ranks New Mexico State, 38-14 over Arizona who hasn’t won in two seasons and is holding open tryouts over their bye week and a triple OT 33-31 victory over the 2-2 Utah Utes. Moving to 5-0 in a mismatch won’t prove anything. Speaking of mismatches, that’s what we received on the late night slate unfortunately. Tulsa is always a headache regardless of record but Memphis will be a solid favorite in the most competitive late night match. UCLA is playing an Arizona team that held open tryouts this past week over the bye (will we see any new faces) and Nevada will host the Aggies of NMS. I Stongly recommend catching Wolfpack QB Carson Strong for a couple quarters.