-Originally published 9/29/21-
Week 5 College Football Picks and Watch Guide
Must Watch: 12:00 – #8 Arkansas (4-0) @ #2 Georgia (4-0) – ESPN
Over Ole Miss/Alabama and Notre Dame/Cincinnati by a hair. Both teams are still in the playoff hunt win or lose but we’ll get a good gauge of both squads and see where they stand. Alabama will beat Ole Miss even if it’s fun. Notre Dame/Cincy is an eliminator but neither has a great chance at the playoffs and the game won’t be exciting.
Audible: 3:30pm – #6 Oklahoma (4-0) @ Kansas St (3-1) – FOX
If the afternoon shootout between Alabama/Ole Miss or defensive battle between Cincinnati/Notre Dame get out of hand, check on the Sooners who have been playing it too close all season and struggle against KSU.
Check In: 12:00pm – Texas (3-1) @ TCU (2-1) – ABC
Texas is improving and hits the road against a solid defense. They could be the top team in the Big 12.
Underrated: 8:00pm – #5 Iowa (4-0) @ Maryland (4-0) – FS1
I try to keep it on Saturday games for this selection but this is a game you should tune into on Friday if you have the chance.
Small Screen: 3:30pm – Nevada (2-1) @ Boise St (2-2) – FS1
We have a few solid non-power games this week. A big Mountain West game between Boise and future NFLer Carson Strong of Nevada is top of the watch list.
Late Night Snack: 10:30pm – Arizona St (3-1) @ #20 UCLA (3-1) – FS1
Could be a deciding Pac-12 South game down the line with these two squads looking the best right now.
Thursday, Sep. 30
7:30pm – Virginia (2-2) @ Miami (2-2) – ESPN
Virginia was shut down by Wake Forest last week after getting in a shootout with North Carolina two weeks ago. Miami is coming off a 69-0 stomping of an FBS school last week with D’Eriq King out and will look for a first real win over a real team besides a 25-23 fending off of Appalachian State a few weeks ago. A conference win for the Hurricanes would go a long way but both of these teams are struggling and King might be out again.
Friday, Oct. 1
7:30pm – Houston (3-1) @ Tulsa (1-3) – ESPN
8:00pm – #5 Iowa (4-0) @ Maryland (4-0) – FS1
9:00pm – #13 BYU (4-0) @ Utah State (3-1) – CBSSN
The Terps have a real football team and there is a solid chance that we see #5 and possibly #13 go down before we even hit Saturday. Iowa’s offense is ranked #122. Maryland’s is #13. Taulia Tagovailoa is completing over 75% of his passes with a 10-1 td-int ration and 9.4ypc. The Hawkeyes really struggled in beating a Colorado State team 24-14 last week that now has a 1-3 record when they couldn’t force the turnovers (tied 1-1) and get a hand defensively. I think Maryland wins Friday in a huge matchup. BTU has been just awesome after an expected setback season with the loss of Zack Wilson to the NFL. Wins over Utah and Arizona St have been feathers in the cap with Arizona and South Florida wins as well although as the two weaker opponents both games were won by only a possession. Utah State is actually ranked #10 in total offense but was stifled on the score board against Boise State 27-3 last week. BYU will be the favorite but will have to watch themselves on the road. Tulsa is always feisty and Houston has gotten off to a nice start this season. What an excellent Friday night.
Sat, Oct. 2nd Noon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
12:00 – #8 Arkansas (4-0) @ #2 Georgia (4-0) – ESPN
The Bulldogs offense has exploded since the week 1 Clemson battle but is it for real? Clemson’s defense is good, but barely a top 25 defense at this point and they shut the Dogs down. Beating up UAB, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt scoring 40+ in each isn’t exactly an indicator of a top offense. Arkansas continues to win games that it didn’t seem ready too. The Razorbacks own the state of Texas with upsets over Texas and Texas A&M. The defense is currently 12th in total defense allowing less than 270ypg. Georgia is going to be the heavy favorite based on the talent and being the home team, but Arkansas’s had tougher opponents even if they had flaws (A&M injuries, Texas defense/young guys early). I’m not sure Arkansas wins on the road, but it would be quiet a story if they did.
Pick: Georgia 31-24
12:00 – #14 Michigan (4-0) @ Wisconsin (1-2) – FOX
Wisconsin’s offense looked pathetic after taking two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame thanks to a bye week. The Badgers have joined Iowa State and Clemson in the early two loss club and out of the playoff race early. All three teams are suffering horribly on the offensive side of the ball. This is just a disgusting football team on the offensive side and the special teams has issues as well. The defense is allowing only 212ypg-2nd best in the country (ISU is 3rd) but that isn’t winning games with untimely turnovers and sloppy offensive play when it should if executed correctly like Iowa (not Iowa State…just to be clear). This game is going to be a defensive battle like all of Wisconsin’s games, especially with the Badgers at home, but I’m not sure how you bet on the Badgers finding a way against another top defense.
Pick: Michigan 17-6
Lower Grove
12:00pm – Tennessee (2-2) @ Missouri (2-2) – SECN
12:00pm – Minnesota (2-2) @ Purdue (3-1) – BTN
12:00pm – Texas (3-1) @ TCU (2-1) – ABC
12:00pm – Pittsburg (3-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-2) – ACCN
12:00pm – Duke (3-1) @ North Carolina (2-2) – ESPN2
12:30pm – Louisville (3-1) @ #24 Wake Forest (4-0) ESPN3
Tennessee/Missouri is a battle between two middling teams in the SEC West while Purdue could find itself at a surprising 4-1 in the Big Ten East division if they can hold off the struggling Gophers who lost to Bowling Green last week. In bigger news, Texas might be the best team in the Big 12 with Iowa St sitting at 2-2, Oklahoma struggling every week, and undefeated Baylor untested. The early loss to Arkansas hasn’t looked so bad and the Longhorns hung 70 on Texas Tech last week scoring touchdowns on 9 of 11 possessions. An impressive win over TCU that looks good against the Horn Frog defense would help the eye test for Texas and put them back in the polls.
Another story playing out CFB right now is who the winning of the ACC is going to be. Favorite Clemson and preseason “second tier” squads Miami and North Carolina all shockingly sit at 2-2 with all three possessing flaws that suggest they aren’t done piling up losses this season. Georgia Tech is starting to put the pieces together for a young squad that was predicted by some in the preseason to make a run. A narrow 14-8 loss to Clemson was disappointing but the squad hammered UNC 45-22 last week in a statement win and they’ll be hosting a Pittsburg team and veteran QB Kenny Pickett who is completing 74% of his passes for a 15-1 Td-Int ratio this season. Duke hasn’t played anyone, with a Northwestern win being the highlight of the season a Charlotte loss being the low end, but they’ll face rival UNC who can’t seem to stop anyone. The defense for the Tar Heels has given up a combined 84 points to Virginia and Georgia Tech the past two weeks despite future NFLer Sam Howell desperately trying to keep the team moving. Finally, Wake Forest whose opponents are a combined 5-11 (including a 2-2 FBS squad) will try to move to 5-0 over Louisville (defeated opponents combined record 4-7 including 2-2 FBS school). Will we learn anything from this? Probably that we’ll have a 3-4 loss ACC Champ….named Clemson.
Saturday, Oct. 2nd Afternoon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
2:30pm – #7 Cincinnati (3-0) @ #9 Notre Dame (4-0) – NBC
Cincinnati is coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for the Irish who haven’t been impressive this season. Wins over Miami of Ohio, Murry State, and a comeback win against Indiana aren’t exciting for the Bearcats but this team will be read for ND after two weeks of prep unlike Wisconsin last week. Jack Coan is expected to be back after missing the last chunk of the game last week and will be needed for ND to have a chance. I expect Cincinnati to travel well and be better on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Cincinnati 27-17
3:30pm – #12 Ole Miss (3-0) @ #1 Alabama (4-0) – CBS
Lane Kiffin almost got his former coach last year and led for a good chunk of the game but came up short. This game will be an exciting shootout but Saban doesn’t lose to former assistants. The Rebels are #1 in total offense at 636.3ypg with a pretty even run/pass split averaging 52.7ypg. Alabama is just outside the top 25 at 465.5ypg but games against Miami and Florida will do that to your averages.
Pick: Alabama 41-31
Lower Grove
2:00pm – USC (2-2) @ Colorado (1-3) – PAC12
2:30pm – UL Monroe (2-1) @ #16 Costal Carolina (4-0) – ESPN+
3:30pm – Troy (2-2) @ South Carolina (2-2) – SECN
3:30pm – Syracuse (3-1) @ Florida St (0-4) – ACCN
3:30pm – Nevada (2-1) @ Boise St (2-2) – FS1
3:30pm – Texas Tech (3-1) @ West Virginia (2-2) – ESPN2
3:30pm – #3 Oregon (4-0) @ Stanford (2-2) – ABC
3:30pm – #6 Oklahoma (4-0) @ Kansas St (3-1) – FOX
3:30pm – #11 Ohio St (3-1) @ Rutgers (3-1) – BTN
4:00pm – South Florida (1-3) @ SMU (4-0) – ESPNU
What a smorgasbord of afternoon games to keep tabs on outside of our two big matchups. Costal Carolina should comfortably clip the Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe. The other ranked squads Oregon, Oklahoma, and Ohio St all face tough road tests and it wouldn’t be shocking to see at least one upset occur and all three squads in close games in the fourth quarter.
USC is slowing falling off the watchable radar as they look sloppy, QB Kedon Slovis is struggling, back QB and potential future star Jaxson Dart is out for surgery, and the team has been blow out twice as favorites but this squad will have players like receiver Drake London in the NFL if they can get him the ball. Syracuse can move to 4-1 in ACC play…something or nothing? See above section on the ACC. Nevada travels to Boise St for a big Mountain West game. QB Carson Strong for the Wolfpack is one of the few QB’s not disappointing this season and he’s not getting enough buzz. Texas Tech and West Virginia isn’t a huge game right now, but we’re not sure who is good in the Big 12 outside of Texas. SMU is about to be 5-0, top of the AAC conference, in the polls again with a road win against TCU on the resume and a top 10 offense and they don’t have to play the tough conference stretch of Houston/Memphis/UCF/Cincinnati for another month. That’s pretty cool right?
Saturday, Oct. 2nd Evening Slate
Fresh Squeezed
7:00pm – #21 Baylor (4-0) @ #19 Oklahoma St (4-0) – ESPN2
OSU took down Kansas St and Baylor survived ISU last week. That leaves these two and Oklahoma still undefeated currently in the Big 12. Texas looks like the best team playing right now. Baylor fields a top 25 defense and the offense production far outpass what OSU has been able to do so far with Gerry Bohanon completing 73% of his passes with 0 interceptions and the offensive line only given up 3 sacks this season. The Bear look better on both sides of the ball right now.
Pick: Baylor 24-13
7:30pm – Boston College (2-2) @ #25 Clemson (2-2) – ACCN
New QB? No problem. BC continued to roll with QB Dennis Grosel against Missouri last week. That seems like it could come to an end on the road at Clemson this week. The Tigers defense isn’t necessary a lockdown crew. They were burned by NC State last week and the run defense might be an issue, especially with BC’s run game averaging 221.5 yards on the ground per game. I think Clemson survives here but it might be close again.
Pick: Clemson 21-17
9:00pm – #22 Auburn (3-1) @ LSU (3-1) – ESPN
The biggest game of the night kicks off at 9 between two SEC teams that are in worse shape that records indicate. Auburn doesn’t know who it’s starting at QB after surviving Georgia St 34-24. LSU looks to be coming around on defense but it’s a low bar that last week’s 28-25 Mississippi St win was so important so early in the season. LSU can’t run the ball at all and will have to throw its way to victory but playing at home with a reliable QB is a clear advantage.
Pick: LSU 38-34
Lower Grove
5:00pm – Army (4-0) @ Ball St (1-3) – ESPN+
6:00pm – #10 Florida (3-1) @ Kentucky (4-0) – ESPN
6:00pm – Louisiana Tech (2-2) @ #23 NC St (3-1) – ESPN+
7:00pm – Mississippi St (2-2) @ #15 Texas A&M (3-1) – SECN
7:00pm – Liberty (3-1) @ UAB (3-1) – CBSSN
7:30pm – Indiana (2-2) @ #4 Penn St (4-0) – ABC
7:30pm – Western Kentucky (1-2) @ #17 Michigan St (4-0) – FS1
8:00pm – Louisiana (3-1) @ South Alabama (3-0) – ESPN+
Where to begin? The night slate doesn’t have any big games on the slate but several interesting contests to keep an eye on. Penn State and Michigan State will look to remain undefeated in the Big 10 while welcoming guests in for the rare night game. The SEC has two games of note. Texas A&M is going to struggle the rest of the season but staying in the SEC hunt starts with a victory over Mississippi State. Kentucky has a horrible turnover ratio and the numbers don’t support the record so they’ll probably get splattered by Florida, but this is a big matchup on paper. NC State logged a huge win over Clemson last week and takes a bit of a breather against Louisiana Tech. Hopefully they pull it out and continue the run. In small-school news, Army and South Alabama look to remain undefeated and Liberty and UAB will play an excellent non-power 5 game that could be one of the better contests of the day.
Saturday, Oct. 2nd Night Slate
9:00pm – Washington (2-2) @ Oregon St (3-1) – PAC12
10:30pm – Arizona St (3-1) @ #20 UCLA (3-1) – FS1
11:00pm – #18 Fresno St (4-1) @ Hawaii (2-3) – CBSSN
The late night slate brings in the dying breath of the Pac 12. Oregon State has slowing been building under Jonathan Smith, now in his 4th season, and they’ll have a shot a moving to 4-1 against Washington who still doesn’t look impressive. The Huskies went to OT to beat Cali last week. ASU and UCLA are in a huge showdown with the loser in a bad position in the Pac-12 South and conference standings. The winner will have a good chance to make the Pac-12 Championship. Arizona, Colorado, and struggling don’t look like challengers at the moment. The biggest remaining opponent for the winner will be the Utah Utes, currently 2-2. Fresno St has been torching opponents with the only loss a close Organ game. Hawaii has been struggling but the travel won’t be easy for the bulldogs.
