-Originally published 11/23/21-
Week 4 College Football Picks and Watch Guide
Must Watch: Saturday Noon – #12 Notre Dame (3-0) @ Wisconsin (1-1) – Fox
Audible: 12:00 – Texas Tech (3-0) Texas (2-1) – ABC
Check In: 7:00 – Nebraska (2-2) @ #20 MSU (3-0) – FS1
Underrated: 2:00 – San Jose St (2-1) @ Western MI (2-1) – ESPN+/3:30 – Kent St (1-2) @ Maryland (3-0) – BTN
Late Night Snack: 10:30 – Colorado (1-2) @ Arizona St (2-1) – ESPNU
Thursday, Sep. 23rd
7:30 – Marshall (2-1) @ Appalachian St (2-1) – ESPN
Friday, Sep. 24th
7:00 – Wake Forest (3-0) @ Virginia (2-1) – ESPN2
8:00 – Liberty (3-0) @ Syracuse (2-1) – ACCN
10:00pm – UNLV (0-3) @ #22 Fresno St (3-1) – CBSSN
Fresno St keeps rolling but plays lowly UNLV. Liberty is try to get itself into the rankings, keep an eye out for QB Malik Willis (71%, 7-0 Td-Int) who leads the team in rushing (225-4 Tds) and passing yards. Marshall/Appalachian St and Wake Forest/Virginia will both be great contests. Not a bad weekday slate.
Saturday, Sep. 25 – Noon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
12:00 – #12 Notre Dame (3-0) @ Wisconsin (1-1) – Fox
The Irish ran off Purdue 27-13 last week and are facing the first in a long stretch of consecutive opponents coming off a bye week before playing ND. ND’s run game with Kyren Williams continues to be the offensive strength. He accounted for 91 yards and a Td on 12 carries and had two receptions for 47 yards and a td as well. The Badgers needed an early break after falling to Penn State and bouncing back against Eastern Michigan 34-7 in an unimpressive win. Only 351 yards of passing offense has been generated by the Badgers. Wisconsin with two weeks preparation should have the edge but the passing game will have to prove itself first.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27-24
Lower Grove:
12:00 – #2 Georgia (3-0) @ Vanderbilt (1-2) – SECN
12:00 – Villanova (3-0) @ #6 Penn State (3-0)
12:00 – LSU (2-1) @ Mississippi St (2-1) – ESPN
12:00 – Missouri (2-1) @ Boston College (3-0) – ESPN2
12:00 – SMU (3-0) @ TCU (3-0) – FS1
12:00 – Texas Tech (3-0) Texas (2-1) – ABC
12:00 – Boise St (1-2) @ Utah St (3-0) – CBS
1:00 – Umass (0-3) @ #17 Costal Carolina (3-0) – ESPN+
The noon slate isn’t very alluring. Georgia, Penn St and Coastal Carolina all have favorable matches as ranked opponents. Several non-ranked games will be more interesting. LSU will be in a dog fight with the Mississippi Bulldogs due to all the injuries on the roster. Boston College will unfortunately be without QB Phil Jurkovec for the remainder of the season but both the Eagles and the Tigers are fighting for a solid record before hitting conference play. Boise St is suddenly 1-2 and playing a solid Utah St aggies squad. The most action will be going down in Texas between SMU/TCU and Texas Tech/Texas.
Saturday, Sep. 25 – Afternoon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
3:30 – #7 Texas A&M (3-0) @ #16 Arkansas (3-0) – CBS
Arkansas has one of the most dangerous traits of all: consistency. The Hogs are averaging 282 yards on the ground and 41 ppg with a balanced attack and a defense hold opponents to 142 ypg passing and allowing 16 ppg. A&M is only allowing 5.7 ppg, best in the country. Zach Calzada will continue to start at QB for the Aggies. This could be where the Aggies luck runs out. Arkansas looks like a complete team right now.
Prediction: Arkansas 31-27
3:30 – #9 Clemson (2-1) @ NC State (2-1) – ESPN
Clemson didn’t even score points equal to the amount they were favored by over Georgia Tech last week in squeaking by 14-8. The offense hasn’t been productive for the Tigers and they’ll get another quality opponent this week. NC State had a hell of a time against Miss St two weeks ago, falling 24-10 but smashed inferior opponents South Florida and Furman and the offense looked much better. You have to assume that Clemson will give NC’s ground game issues as well, even with DT Tyler Davis lost to a torn bicep. The passing attack of the Wolfpack should still test the Tigers. Clemson simply hasn’t been able to move the ball well offensively, especially through the air. This could be another offensive struggle.
Prediction: Clemson 20-17
3:30 – #14 Iowa State (2-1) @ Baylor (3-1) – FOX
Two of the better defensive squads in the country right now are in the Big 12. Baylor is allowing 11.3 ppg and ISU 13.3 ppg. ISU is #1 in yards allowed (192.7) and Baylor is #6 (228.3). The Bears have yet to play a quality team with wins over Texas St, Texas Southern and Kansas. ISU beat UNLV, survived UNI, and handed a game to Iowa. This could be a closer game than expected if ISU hasn’t figured out how to move the ball after a 48-3 team win against UNVL last week.
Prediction: Iowa State 23-20
Lower Grove:
2:00 – San Jose St (2-1) @ Western MI (2-1) – ESPN+
3:30 – Rutgers (3-0) @ #19 Michigan (3-0) – ABC
3:30 – UTSA (3-0) @ Memphis (3-0) – ESPNU
3:30 – Kent St (1-2) @ Maryland (3-0) – BTN
3:30 – Colorado St (1-2) @ #5 Iowa (3-0) – FS1
4:00 – Georgia St (1-2) @ #23 Auburn (2-1) – SECN
Michigan should mash Rutgers but the Scarlet Knights have been on a nice tear and the defense will put pressure on the Wolverines. 13 sacks, 3 picks, 6 fumble recoveries and the ability to slow UM’s run game should cause some concern for Wolverine fans. Kent State’s record is exactly what it should be after a brutal schedule that pits them against Maryland next. They still have one of better offenses in the country. San Jose St and Western Michigan will both compete for their respective conference titles
Evening Slate
No games really stand out in the even slate. It’s more of a “what’s your flavor?” ice cream type of evening. Multiple ranked teams will be on upset watch.
6:00 – #24 UCLA (2-1) @ Stanford (2-1) – PAC12
Flavor: Rocky Road. After supposedly turning the corner by defeating LSU, UCLA fell to Fresno St and now LSU isn’t looking so hot. Can Chip Kelly keep things heading in the right direction? Stanford is moving in the right directing after putting up 42 on USC and 41 on Vandy. A win for either side is huge right now. Pick: Stanford
7:00 – Tennessee (2-1) @ #11 Florida (2-1) – ESPN
Flavor: Chocolate Sea Salt Caramel. Whoa Whoa, I know what you’re thinking, “that’s out of left field and seems to complex and tasty to describe Tennessee”. You would be correct. The excitement is for freshman Florida QB Anthony Richardson who should be on track to play Saturday. QB Emori Jones and the Gators went toe-to-toe with Alabama without him which shocked everyone. Richardson was showing to be the X-factor and possible new starting QB if Jones faltered but possibly beating the Tide without him? What’s Florida’s ceiling. The Vols despite still trying to decide between Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton III at QB have been functional so far this season. Two blowout wins over inferior opponents and a classic back-and-forth loss to Pitt 41-34 don’t light up the resume but this is a decent squad. Pick: Florida
7:00 – Nebraska (2-2) @ #20 MSU (3-0) – FS1
Flavor: Superman. Flying into the Big Ten East race and top 25 polls are the Super Spartans hosting a night game? I guess that makes Scott Frost Darkseid. The Huskers went toe-to-toe with Nebraska last week and Frost might…might save his job this season if he can continue to show improvement.
Pick: MSU
7:00 – #25 Kansas St (3-0) @ Oklahoma St (3-0) – BIG12/ESPN+
Flavor: Vanilla. Neither squad has looked like world beaters or playoff contenders but here we are. One team is about to move to 4-0 and to the top of the Big 12 standings with Oklahoma.
Pick: Kansas St
7:00 – Kentucky (3-0) @ South Carolina (2-1) – ESPN2
Flavor: Butter Pecan. Its nutty that we have these two as surprising teams in the SEC East. Kentucky struggled against Chattanooga last week winning 28-23 but fields a more exciting offense to watch this season behind QB Will Levis. SC has struggled in recent seasons but the Gamecocks in a fair fight here. A 20-17 win over East Carolina was solid and the 40-13 loss to Georgia last week wasn’t great but the Gamecocks put up over 100 yards more offensively than Clemson. The sweet taste of an underdog grabbing its 3rd or 4th win in a nutty season where no team looks unbeatable? Sounds fun to me.
Pick: Kentucky
7:30 – Southern Miss (1-2) @ #1 Alabama (3-0) – SECN
Flavor: Coffee. Saban has stated he loves getting up every morning with a cup of fresh coffee and 2 little Debbie’s cookies. After a scare last week against Florida coach will have an easy matchup to clean things up before getting back on track. You know exactly what you’re getting here as Alabama is still the best team in the country.
Pick: Little Debbie
7:30 – West Virginia (2-1) @ #4 Oklahoma (3-0) – ABC
Flavor: Chocolate. Oklahoma continues to remain unbeaten by its coattail. WV played its best game of the season last week shocking #15 Virginia Tech 27-21. The spread on this game is 17 but the Sooners haven’t covered any so far. This game has the taste of a classic.
Pick: Oklahoma
7:30 – Akron (1-2) @ #10 Ohio St (2-1) – BTN
Flavor: Cookie Dough. Ah, to be raw and a finished product at the same time. Gary Daly is making adjustments defensively to keep OSU chugging along. CJ Stroud has to improve going into tougher Big 10 games and every week is a showcase for the country in how things are going.
Pick: Ohio State
7:30 – #21 North Carolina (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (1-2) – ACCN
Flavor: Mint Chocolate Chip. Not for everyone, but for those that enjoy something a little different with an occasional sweet spot, the Tarheels and Yellow Jackets. GT hasn’t been the upstart ACC team some thought but they played Clemson within a score last week in a defensive battle. UNC seems to finally be finding themselves offensively putting up 118 points the past two weeks and keeping themselves in the ACC race with a 59-39 win over Virginia last week. Both squads are far from perfect but this game promises some big highlights.
Pick: North Carolina
Late Night
10:15 – South Florida (1-2) @ #15 BYU (3-0) – ESPN2
10:30 – Arizona (0-3) @ #3 Oregon (3-0) – ESPN
10:30 – Oregon St (2-1) @ USC (2-1) – FS1
10:30 – Colorado (1-2) @ Arizona St (2-1) – ESPNU
Oregon and BYU should both roll but checking in on both as they continue to gain steam is something I would advise. The Ducks are looking like the best in the Pac 12 by a mile. Coming into this season speculation was made on Arizona St, USC, Utah, and Washington to all compete with the Ducks along with UCLA after week 1. All those teams have one or two losses already with USC and ASU in trouble again tonight. Hell, Stanford might be seen as the 2nd best team in the Pac 12 after week 4.