-Originally published 11/17/21-
Week 3 College Football Picks and Watch Guide
Must Watch: 7:30 – #22 Auburn @ #10 Penn State – ABC
Audible: 2:00 – Nevada @ Kansas St – BIG12/ESPN+
Check In: 3:30 – USC @ Washington St – Fox
Underrated: 4:00 – Mississippi St @ Memphis – ESPN2
Late Night Snack: 10:45 – Fresno St @ #13 UCLA
Weekday Slate
Thursday, Sep. 16
8:00 – Ohio @ Louisiana – ESPN
Friday, Sep. 17
7:30 – UCF @ Louisville – ESPN
9:00 – Maryland @ Illinois – FS1
UCF/Louisville highlights an otherwise bland weekday slate. The Cards are still hoping to make noise in the ACC and start conference play against reeling Florida State next week. UCF has already notched a nice win against Boise State and would like to avoid any blemishes against Louisville, Navy, and East Carolina before an October 16th date against Cincinnati.
Saturday, Sep. 18 – Noon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
12:00 – #8 Cincinnati @ Indiana – ESPN
The Bearcats have a real opportunity to position themselves as playoff candidate as top teams go down. Cincy knocked off Miami of Ohio and Murry State by a combined 91-21. Indiana is off to a rough start as they were waxed by Iowa week one and did the waxing against inferior Idaho 56-14 last week but Michael Penix only threw for 68 yards and the run game averaged 3.6ypc on the ground. The improvements don’t look like they’re being made for the Hoosiers to greatly improve since week 1 and the Bearcats continue to roll on both sides of the ball. Desmond Ridder is completing 72.3% of his passes and Bearcats haven’t played a real squad but the offense should put up points.
Prediction: Cincinnati 35-17
12:00 – #15 Virginia Tech @ West Virginia – FS1
West Virginia fell to Maryland 30-24 and routed Long Island 66-0 last week. Jarrett Doege (61.3%, 536 yds, 8.6 avg, 4-2 td-int) might just be a sub-par quarterback. Its possible redshirt freshman Garrett Greene will hit the field when WV struggles. The Mountaineers have been the definition of a middling team the past couple years and this season looks the same. Virginia Tech can make a surprise run for the ACC Coastal after smothering North Carolina 17-10. The Hokies beat Middle Tennessee St 35-14 last week. The ground game is the strength of the offense and the defense has 9 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 3 forced fumbles in two games so far.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 31-14
12:00 – Michigan State @ #24 Miami – ABC
MSU has looked the part of a playoff contender dropping Northwestern 38-21 and Youngstown State 42-14 while Miami looks like a team with offensive issues in for a long year after surviving Appalachian St 25-23 and getting stomped 44-13 by Alabama. The difference is obviously the competition played so far, but how could the direction both teams are treading affect each team? What is truly the ceiling for each squad? Miami is still favored and notably held both Alabama and App St to under 4 ypc and will look to do the same to the potent ground game of the Spartans averaging 8 ypc. MSU’s defense has been stifling with 6 sacks and holding opponents fewer than 7 yards-per throw and 4 ypc. It’s hard to tell with such a discrepancy in quality of competition but its hard to go against the tested home team in a coin-flip game.
Prediction: Miami 24-23
Lower Grove:
12:00 – Nebraska @ #3 Oklahoma – FOX
12:00 – New Mexico @ #7 Texas A&M – SECN
12:00 – Northern Illinois @ #25 Michigan
12:00 – #16 Coastal Carolina @ Buffalo
12:00 – Western MI @ Pittsburg – ESPN3
1:00 – Minnesota @ Colorado – PAC12
The noon slate doesn’t have much going on. Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Michigan and Coastal Carolina are set for mismatches. Nebraska is 2-1 after an embarrassing opening day loss to Illinois. They still won’t hang with Oklahoma who was embarrassed themselves against Tulane in their opener and survived 40-35. Oklahoma is refocused after beating West Carolina 76-0 last week, like a future Champ, in a game where 3 Sooners QBs threw passes, 7 players recorded carries, and 13 players had receptions. Nebraska needs to focus on keeping it close for a half. Aggies QB Haynes King injured his leg last week and the starter for the team is murky, but the team is in shape for another sloppy game like last week’s 10-7 Colorado win. Pittsburg survived a shootout against Tennessee last week 41-34 and could potentially get a fight against feisty Western Michigan. Minnesota and Colorado don’t have grand aspirations this season but will find themselves in a good matchup.
Saturday, Sep. 18 – Afternoon
Fresh Squeezed
2:30 – Purdue @ #12 Norte Dame – NBC
This could be a matchup between two unimpressive squads but they’ve both started 2-0. Purdue has unimpressive wins over Oregon State and Connecticut to start the season and RB Zander Horvath broke his leg last week. Notre Dame won an excellent OT game against Florida State that generated “Are the Seminoles back?” talk. Then FSU promptly lost to Jacksonville State squashing that narrative. The Irish then rallied to survive Toledo last week 32-29. That being said, ND’s offense behind Jack Coan and RB Kyren Williams has been exciting. The defense has stacked up 10 sacks and 3 interceptions so far. The Boilermakers have a promising QB in Jack Plummer and several running back options to hopefully plug in. The game should be entertaining between two underrated QBs with NDs defense clamping down.
Prediction: Notre Dame 28-14
3:30 – #1 Alabama @ #11 Florida – CBS
The Gators have decided to split time at QB between starter Emory Jones and freshman Anthony Richardson. The future belongs to Richardson who currently leads the team in rushing but Dan Mullen probably doesn’t want to give him the reins against the Tide. Alabama hasn’t had too many bumps incorporating ten new starters on offense. Bryce Young is completing 70.8% of his passes, has a 7-0 td/int ratio and only been sacked twice. Jameson Williams, John Metchie III, and JoJo Earle compose the new receiver trio. Linebacker Will Anderson Jr was questionable but is now expected to be back on defense. Saban’s defenses have historically had issues against mobile QB’s like Johnny Manziel, Chad Kelly, and Nick Marshall. It’s still hard to envision Alabama losing in the Swamp.
Prediction: Alabama 38-21
Lower Grove:
2:00 – Nevada @ Kansas St – BIG12/ESPN+
3:30 – Kent St @ #5 Iowa – BTN
3:30 – Georgia Tech @ #6 Clemson – ABC
3:30 – Tulsa @ #9 Ohio St – FS1
3:30 – USC @ Washington St – Fox
4:00 – Georgia Southern @ #20 Arkansas – SECN
4:00 – Mississippi St @ Memphis – ESPN2
4:15 – Arkansas St @ Washington – PAC12
The mid-afternoon slate is fantastic. Nevada knocked off California in the opener and took last week off so they’ll be prepared to take down another Power 5 team. QB Carson Strong is an excellent watch. Iowa, Clemson, Ohio State and Arkansas matchup against competition that could either beat by 30+ or could hang in and keep the country on upset watch. Of note, Iowa has been winning on defense and the offense is ranked 126th out of 130 FBS teams offensively. Kent State can be explosive offensively and is ranked 19th even with one of their two games coming against Texas A&M’s defense, so keep an eye on that game. USC made headlines this week first by getting hammered by Stanford 42-28, then by firing coach Clay Helton two weeks into the season. An opportunistic Washington State squad will be looking to take advantage of the turmoil. Mississippi State/Memphis is a fantastic SEC/AAC matchup. Washington might be a poor watch if they can’t figure the offense out which isn’t looking likely. Butch Jones, now at Arkansas State will be looking to further the Huskies misery and push them to 0-3.
Saturday, Sep. 18 – Evening
Fresh Squeezed
7:30 – #22 Auburn @ #10 Penn State – ABC
Auburn has knocked of two FBS schools by a combined 122-10 while Penn State survived in Madison 16-10 over Wisconsin and defeated Ball State 44-13. It’ll be a White Out in Happy Valley and the Tigers have had two tune-ups under new coach Bryan Harsin to ease into his program. The run game has rang up 680 rushing yards at 9.6 per carry with Jarquez Hunter leading the way with 15.1 ypc on 15 attemps for 257 yds to lead the team. Bo Nix is completing 74.4% of his passes and the defense looks great. What can we take from that given the competition? Penn State hasn’t looked elite they have the run game and veteran QB in Sean Clifford on offense and a defense allowing only 11.5 ppg.
Prediction: Penn State 27-21
7:30 – Virginia @ #21 North Carolina
We still don’t know what to make of North Carolina. After melting down 17-10 to Virginia Tech the Tarheels defeated Georgia State 59-17. Same Howell threw for 352 yards and 3 Tds and rushed for 104 yards and 2 tds looking like the Heisman candidate he was expected to be. Georgia State has one of the better running attacks in the country and the Tarheels held them to 181 rushing yards and 4 ypc. Virginia hasn’t played anyone, defeating William & Mary and Illinois 85-14 combined, but Brannan Armstrong (71.6%, 7-1 td-int) is a real QB for the cavaliers and they’ve compiled a top-10 defense against inferior competition. Mack Brown can’t afford any more slip ups and UNC should be primed to notch its first decent win.
Prediction: UNC 31-21
Lower Grove:
6:00 – East Carolina @ Marshall
7:00 – South Carolina @ #2 Georgia – ESPN
7:00 – Utah @ San Diego St – CBSSN
7:30 – Utah St @ Air Force – FS2
7:30 – Stony Brook @ #4 Oregon – PAC12
8:00 – Tulane @ #17 Ole Miss – ESPN2
The evening doesn’t include many top matchups. Georgia and Oregon should both win big. Ole Miss will face a tougher opponent in Tulane, the same squad that nearly defeated Oklahoma in week one. East Carolina/Marshall will probably be the most entertaining game between non-ranked opponents with Utah having a chance to crawl back into the top 25 with a win.
Saturday, Sep. 18 – Late Night
Fresh Squeezed
9:00 – Oklahoma St @ Boise St – FS1
OSU snuck by Missouri St 23-16 and Tulsa 28-23. Boise State lost to UCF 36-31 and rolled UTEP 54-13. QB Spencer Sanders missed the opener due to covid protocol. He was 15/26, 173 yards, 2-1 td-int, and 62 yards rushing against Tulsa. Neither team has looked great on the ground. Boise’s offense just looks a little more tested, productive, and capable right now.
Prediction: Boise State 35-24
10:15 – #19 Arizona State @ #23 BYU – ESPN
BYU knocked off Arizona 24-16 and Utah last week 26-17 for the first time since 2009. ASU has yet to be challenged defeating Sothern Utah and UNLV by a combined 78-24. Expectations for ASU had the team competing for the PAC12 Championship while BYU was supposed to struggle a year removed from Zac Wilson. After two weeks, I think BYU is the better team. Jayden Daniel is completing 73% of his passes for ASU for a modest 307 passing yards and 2-1 td-int ratio. He’s also the team’s leading rusher with 165 yards. No receiver has stood out and the team is converting on 52% of 3rd downs. The defense hasn’t shut out vastly inferior opponents but is Top 5 in yards allowed and Top 25 (12) in points allowed. BYU logically, doesn’t have the same numbers due to quality of opponent but they’re allowing 16.5 ppg so far and have maintained a balanced offense highlighted by RB Ryler Allgeier (196 yds, 4.5 avg, 1 td) and QB Jaren Hall (62.1%, 347 yds, 5-0 td-int, 128 rush/yds). I think the Cougars hold the ball and move it against ASU.
Prediction: BYU 24-21
Lower Grove:
10:30 – #14 Iowa State @ UNLV
10:45 – Fresno St @ #13 UCLA
Late night sees Iowa State trying to regain it’s footing after offensive and turnover struggles find them staring at a 1-1 record and hanging onto playoff chances by a threat. Fresno St and UCLA is quietly an excellent matchup. The Bruins took last week off after chowing down on the LSU Tigers two weeks ago. Fresno might be a better opponent than advertised. The Bulldogs have three games in this season already as they mauled Connecticut 45-0 and Cal Poly 63-10 and hung with Oregon two weeks ago in a 31-24 loss. QB Jake Haener (1,009 yds, 8-0 td-in) is 10th in completion percentage (73.6) and tied for 6th in yards-per-attempt (11.1).
Sunday, Sep. 19
12:30AM – San Jose St @ Hawaii – FS1
This will be an emotional game for San Jose St coach Brent Brennan, older cousin cousin of former Hawaii QB great Colt Brennan who passed away back in May. On the field Hawaii has been struggled losing to UCLA 44-10, Organ State 45-27, and playing Portland State close 49-35. San Jose State will be looking to recover after not hanging nearly as close as hoped against USC two weeks ago in a 30-7 blowout.