-Originally published 11/16/21-
Under Further Review
The biggest upset of the weekend happened in Waco Baylor’s defense smothered Oklahoma 27-14 and forced Caleb Williams to the bench after a 10/19 146 yard, 2 Int day in favor of Spencer Rattler who only threw for 36 yards. 260 yds of offense is all the Sooners could managed coming out of the bye week. Ironically, Oklahoma State’s early season loss to Baylor now makes them the front runner to make the playoffs in the Big 12. The conference is probably out altogether, but they’re now ahead of OU in the playoff rankings after slamming TCU 63-17. Winning out means beating Texas Tech on the road this week, beating Oklahoma, and winning the Big 12 Championship against either Oklahoma or Baylor, two teams they would have already beaten at that point. It would also mean 3 losses for every team in the conference (unless Oklahoma finishes 10-2 and misses the Big 12 Championship in favor of a 10-2 Baylor and 11-1 OSU) further diluting the Cowboys resume.
The Big 10 held with Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State all winning. Georgia, Alabama, Cincinnati, and Oregon all won comfortably as top 7 all stayed the same. Oklahoma dropped all the way to #13 moving Notre Dame, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest up to round out the top 10 and set the line for playoff potentials at this point. Baylor at 8-2 is #11, Ole Miss is #12 at 8-2, BYU stayed at #14 with a 8-2 record then the first three-loss team, 7-3 Wisconsin, makes a showing at #15.
Florida and Texas both had huge aspirations and have come under fire as the season has progressed. Neither coach helped their case Saturday. Florida was down at half 42-31 to 4-6 FBS Samford and survived 70-52 in a basketball score game. The defense didn’t seem to want any part of the Bulldogs giving up over 500 yards of offense. If Dan Mullen was trending down before he’s in free fall now. Taxas couldn’t play defense either in its fifth straight loss, its worst in 60 years, falling to 4-6 and in danger of making a bowl. The previous losses: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State, who had high expectations this season but continue to sink after losing to Texas Tech 41-38 and currently stand at 6-4, were all solid teams and they had leads in the game but this 57-56 loss to Kansas was an inexcusable punch in the face. Kansas lead 14-0 after the 1st, 35-14 at the half, 42-35 after 3 and Texas forced OT. The Jayhawks went for a 2-point conversion after a TD apiece in OT and the pass was caught by a walk-on fullback to win. Steve Sarkisian’s first season might be his only as this comes on the heels of the leaked Bo Davis video. The video of the D line coach was leaked by a player and wasn’t incriminating of anything other than an ass chewing but reflects a lack of trust between players and coaching staff. They’ll have to win on the road at a struggling West Virginia and against Kansas State who has quietly compiled a 7-3 record to hit bowl eligibility.
Top Watches –Week 12
Weekday Watch: 9:00 – Memphis (5-5) @ #24 Houston (9-1) – ESPN2
Cougars are moving to the ACC title game if the Tigers don’t get in the way.
Must Watch: Noon – #7 Michigan State (9-1) @ #4 Ohio State (9-1) – ABC
A playoff eliminator and Big 10 East front runner will emerge.
Audible: 3:30 – Virginia (6-4) @ #18 Pittsburg (8-2) – ESPN2
A battle for the SEC Coastal between top under-the-radar QBs.
Check In: 8:00 – #9 Oklahoma State (9-1) @ Texas Tech (6-4) – FOX
Cowboys aren’t out of the Playoff race yet and need to avoid a frisky road team.
Underrated: 4:00 – UCLA (6-4) @ USC (4-5) – FOX
The Battle for LA is still worth a watch.
Small Screen: 4:00 – Louisiana (9-1) @ Liberty (7-3) – ESPNU
A defensive/offensive battle.
Late Night Snack: 10:30 – Arizona State (7-3) @ Oregon State (6-4) – ESPN
The OSU rebuilt is going well and knocking out a Sun Devil squad on a backslide would be another feather in the cap.
Tuesday, November 16th
7:00 – Toledo (5-5) @ Ohio (3-7) – ESPN+
7:30 – Western Michigan (6-4) @ Eastern Michigan (6-4) – ESPN2
8:00 – Bowling Green (3-7) @ Miami Ohio (5-5) – ESPNU
Wednesday, November 17th
7:00 – Northern Illinois (7-3) @ Buffalo (4-6) – ESPN2
7:00 – Central Michigan (6-4) @ Ball State (5-5) – ESPNU
MAC West is tight with NI holding a 5-1 lead for 1st, CMU in 2nd at 4-2 and Toledo, Ball State, Easter, and Western all tied at 3-3. Miami Ohio and Kent State are 4-2 in the East with Ohio a step behind at 3-3. Wednesday’s slate is the key games. The Huskies will wrap up the East if they can win over Buffalo on the road. If the Huskies do stumble and CMU wins a tough game on the road the Chip still have their foot in the door.
Thursday, November 18th
7:30 – Louisville (5-5) @ Duke (3-7) – ESPN
Back-to-back disappointing seasons for Louisville and QB Malik Cunningham including three losses by six or less to Wake Forest, Virginia, and Clemson have this squad scrabbling for bowl eligibly with Kentucky next week. Beating a Duke team that’s 0-6 in ACC play is a must.
Friday, November 19th
8:00 – Southern Miss (1-9) @ Louisiana Tech (3-7) – CBSSN
9:00 – Memphis (5-5) @ #24 Houston (9-1) – ESPN2
9:00 – Arizona (1-9) @ @ Washington State (5-5) – Pac12
9:00 – Air Force (7-3) @ Nevada (7-3) – FS1
11:30 – #19 San Diego State @ UNLV (2-8) – CBSSN
Houston continues to rumble towards the AAC Championship and a date with Cincinnati if they can bump off a Memphis squad that’s 2-5 in the last seven including a 30-29 loss the East Carolina last week. Freshman QB Seth Henigan (21-6 Td-Int) is leading a Tiger team averaging 31.7ppg that upset SMU a couple weeks ago so Houston can’t take it easy. Arizona isn’t good but was close to another victory last week against Utah losing 38-29 while Washington State played Oregon tight 38-24. It should be a close game in the Pac12. Nevada has lost heartbreakers to Fresno State and now San Diego State 23-21 and is no longer in route to the Mountain West Championship but AF is 2nd in the East and is trying to hang around. It’ll be the top watch of the evening as two squads with completely opposite offensive philosophies go to work. Finally, Brake Hoke and SDSU will be looking to lock up the MW West during early Sunday morning hours eastern time. Boise State looms next week in the season in finally but the Hoke redemption tour will be just about wrapped if UNLV doesn’t play spoiler. Winners of two straight the Rebels have actually played Fresno State, UTSA, and Utah State to one-possession games this season.
Saturday, November 20th – Noon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
Noon – #7 Michigan State (9-1) @ #4 Ohio State (9-1) – ABC
Sparty took down Maryland in a complete offensive performance 40-21. Tagovailva still put up 350 yards on MSU’s defense and that has to be frightening after OSU hammered Purdue 59-31 behind 361 yards and 5 Tds in the air while still racking up 263 yards and 3 Tds on the ground. The Buckeyes entered the season with 2 receiving threats in Chris Olave (51 rec, 708 yrds, 13.9 avg, 11 Td) and Garrett Wilson (53 rec, 813 yds, 15.3 avg, 9 Td) and now have a 3rd in sophomore Jaxson Smith-Njigba who leads the team in receptions (59), yards (1,027), and receiving average (17.4). Returning RB Marcus Teague III was penciled as a starter coming into the season but been replaced by not only by Treveyon Henderson (1,035 yds, 7.3 avg, 14 Tds), a sure-fire Heisman candidate next season, but also freshman Miyan Williams (435 yds, 7.5 avg, 2 Td) who would also start for most teams in the country. One could argue that if Henderson was receiving Kenneth Walker III’s volume (141 attempts vs 227), he would match the current Heisman front-runners numbers or surpass them. Walker (1,473 yds, 6.5 avg, 17 Tds) MSU’s offense flowing through him and two big weapons in Jayden Reed (45 rec, 829 yds, 18.4 avg, 7 Tds), and Jalen Nailor (31 rec, 587 yds, 18.9 avg, 6 Tds) averaging over 18 ypc opening up big plays down the field. This should be a shootout.
Pick: Ohio State 49-42
Lower Grove
Noon – Iowa State (6-4) @ #13 Oklahoma (9-1) – FOX
Noon – Purdue (6-4) @ Northwestern (3-7) – BTN
Noon – Florida State (4-6) @ Boston College (6-4) – ACCN
Noon – Rutgers (5-5) @ Penn State (6-4) – BTN
Noon – Texas (4-6) @ West Virginia (4-6) – ESPN2
Noon – Florida Atlantic (5-5) @ Western Kentucky (6-4) – TBD
Noon – Kent State (5-5) @ Akron (2-8) – ESPN+
Noon – Wofford (1-9) @ North Carolina (5-5) – ESPN3
Noon – Charleston S. (4-5) @ #1 Georgia (10-0) – ESPN+/SECN+
Noon – Prairie View A&M (7-2) @ #16 Texas A&M (7-3) – ESPN+/SECN+
Noon – Tennessee St (5-5) @ #25 Mississippi St (6-4) – ESPN+/SECN+
Noon – New Mexico St (1-9) @ Kentucky (7-3) – SECN
1:00 – Texas State (3-7) @ Coastal Carolina (8-2) – ESPN+
The Cyclones haven’t had the season they wanted but Breece Hall has 16 Tds and is averaging 5.4ypg for an offense scoring 32.5ppg. Defense has been the Cyclones problem and Oklahoma will have to exploit it to avoid another loss. Purdue can score but came up against the Ohio State buzz saw last week. They should polish off NW. Penn State’s schedule: Wisconsin, Auburn, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, even Maryland and MAC contender Ball State is one of the toughest schedules in the country with a road trip to East Lansing next week. They can’t overlook a Rutgers squad with 5 wins over non-bowl competing teams. If the Scarlet Knights can upset Penn State or Maryland next week they’ll be bowl eligible in Greg Schiano’s first year back on the job. Boston College is bowl eligible after losing QB Phil Jurkovec early in the season. FSU will be looking to do the same. Morgantown will be the end of one teams bowl aspirations. Texas’s collapse should stop here but who knows at this point. Western Kentucky’s high-powered offense has led to five straight victories and 1st place in the C-USA East. They’ll need to fend off FAU, losers of two straight to fall out of the race, in order to maintain control. Kent State is still in the MAC East race and fun to watch averaging 37ppg in conference play and scoring most Td’s in less than 2 minute drives.
Georgia, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Kentucky all take the typical SEC late-season non-conference gimmmie game and UNC does the same. CC came up short 42-40 to a tough Georgia State team behind backup QB Bryce Carpenter but will recover this week. They’re behind Appalachian State in the Sun Belt East and almost out of the conference race.
Saturday Afternoon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
3:00 – #21 Arkansas (7-3) @ #2 Alabama (9-1) – CBS
Arkansas beat LSU 16-13 in OT in its 4th straight SEC West game decided by 5 points or less it a super competitive division. The Razerbacks are 3-2 in the West with wins over LSU, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M. Losses came to Ole Miss and Auburn. The hogs were also shut out by Georgia and hammered Texas early in the year when it looked like a bigger victory. They’ve put up 31+ six times and 40+ four times. KJ Jefferson (1,990 yds, 65%, 17-3 Td-Int) is quietly one of the most efficient QB’s in the country and he’s a rushing threat (474 yds, 5 Tds) as well. Four receivers average over 14 yards-per-reception. The Tide rolled New Mexico State 59-3 last week. They’re allowing opposing QB’s to complete 63% of passes, bottom quarter of rankings nationally, and will take their licks here. The Tide offense looked had a nice tune up with Bryce Young completing 21/23 and throwing 5 Tds. This should be a great game if the Razerbacks can get a few stops.
Pick: Alabama 35-31
3:30 – SMU (8-2) @ #5 Cincinnati (10-0) – ESPN
The Bearcats were hoping SMU would be undefeated by the time this matchup rolled around. The Mustangs bounced back in a 55-28 win over UCF after losing to Houston 44-37 and Memphis 28-25. QB Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 3,264 yds and completing 69.9% of his passes with a 37-10 Td-Int ratio. They’re putting up 41.6ppg, 498.5ypg and converting 47% of 3rd downs. The Bearcats beat the 2-7 South Florida Bulls 45-28 but arguments could be made the margin should’ve been 30+ to make a statement. The Bearcats red zone defense is one of the best in the country at holding opponents to scores 61% of the time and the defense is top 15 in yards allowed at 315.9ypg and 16.2ppg. Cincy hasn’t played an offense like SMU but Notre Dame put up 341 yards between 3 QBs in a struggle early in the season. The Irish had an interception in the red zone and spotted Cincy the ball inside the 10 on another pick in a 24-13 loss. The Mustangs have a real shot here to take Cincy’s season and Bearcats can’t be caught in a shootout with the offense sometimes stagnant.
Pick: SMU 34-24
Lower Grove
2:00 – Illinois (4-6) @ #17 Iowa (8-2) –FS1
2:30 – Georgia Tech (3-7) @ #8 Notre Dame (9-1) – NBC
3:30 – #6 Michigan (9-1) @ Maryland (5-5) – BTN
3:30 – Nebraska (3-7) @ #15 Wisconsin (7-3) – ABC
3:30 – Virginia (6-4) @ #18 Pittsburg (8-2) – ESPN2
3:30 – UAB (7-3) @ #22 UTSA (10-0) – ESPN+
3:30 – Appalachian St (8-2) @ Troy (5-5) – ESPN+
4:00 – #14 BYU (8-2) @ Georgia Southern (3-7) – ESPN+
4:00 – Syracuse (5-5) @ #20 NC State (7-3) – ACCN
4:00 – Louisiana (9-1) @ Liberty (7-3) – ESPNU
4:00 – UCLA (6-4) @ USC (4-5) – FOX
In Big 10 action Iowa is hosting an Illinois team that’s 2-2 in its last four with wins over Penn State and Minnesota while the Hawkeyes have narrowly edged Northwestern and Minnesota by 5 points each the past two weeks. Michigan is on the road against a Maryland team that’s struggled against better completion but still throwing for almost 320ypg. Wisconsin is surging with 5 straight wins and Big 10 West title in sight. The Huskers ability to compete with the top teams but shoot themselves in the foot is well documented. It wouldn’t be shocking to see an upset in one of those three games. Notre Dame is closing in on 11-2 and a playoff shot against the slowly rebuilding Yellowjackets. Kenny Pickett (3,517 yds, 67.5%, 32-4 Td-Int) leads #1 Pitt and Brennan Armstrong (3,557 yds, 64%, 27-8 Td-Int) leads #2 Virginia for the Coastal division of the ACC. If the Pitt Panthers win they’re in the Championship. If VA pulls an upset they’ll jump into first. UTSA and UAB are the top two squads in the C-USA West. UAB will actually jump UTSA in the standings if they pull an upset. Appalachian St will face a tough road trip at Troy in Sun Belt play while Sun Belt favorite Louisiana steps out of conference to take on Liberty. NC State is just about out of the ACC race. They’ll take on a Cuse team seeking bowl eligibility. The Battle for LA loses luster after disappointing season for both squads but freshman QB Jaxon Dart should see the field for USC and both programs still have talent.
Evening Slate
Fresh Squeezed
5:30 – #11 Baylor (8-2) @ Kansas State (7-3) – FS1
The Bears are aiming for the Big 12 Championship and an expected road trip to an unexpectedly solid KSU squad threatens to derail that goal. Winners of 4 straight, the Wildcats are winning behind 5’6 sophomore RB Deuce Vaughn averaging 5.5ypg with 987 yards and 13 Tds on the season. KSU’s run defense has cracked the top 20 in the country allowing an average of 133.3ypg but that could be somewhat faulty having no played Baylor or Texas’s run games yet. Baylor’s defense will be its strength, holding Oklahoma State to 14, Texas to 24, Oklahoma to 14, and could stifle the Wildcats but an upset isn’t out of the question.
Pick: Baylor 20-10
7:30 – #3 Oregon (9-1) @ #23 Utah (7-3) – ABC
The Ducks have lived on the edge all season but a road game against the surging Utes could push them over. Since changing QBs to Cameron Rising they’re 6-1 and Rising has a 14-2 Td-Int ratio. The Utes are posting 35.9ppg, 438.1ypg, and converting 45% of 3rd downs. They defense has 30 sacks on the season. The Ducks ground game is rolling up a whopping 227.4ypg and converting 51% of 3rd downs. A Pac-12 Championship could see a rematch of these two. But an Oregon loss means no playoff for the Pac-12.
Pick: Oregon 24-21
Lower Grove
7:00 – Auburn (6-4) @ South Carolina (5-5) – ESPN
7:30 – Vanderbilt (2-8) @ #12 Ole Miss (8-2) – SECN
7:30 – South Alabama (5-5) @ Tennessee (5-5) – ESPNU
7:30 – Virginia Tech (5-5) @ Miami (5-5) – ACCN
8:00 – #9 Oklahoma State (9-1) @ Texas Tech (6-4) – FOX
8:00 – Wyoming (5-5) @ Utah State (8-2) – CBSSN
South Carolina was expected to win 4 games this season and now they’re flirting with a bowl game. Auburn will be without Bo Nix due to an ankle injury and the season is suddenly on a down spiral. The Gamecocks could grab win number six here. Ole Miss and Tennessee should win handily behind their elite QBs. VT will be looking for a new coach and Miami might be too if they miss a bowl. Oklahoma State is eyeing a Big 12 Championship if they can power through Texas Tech and rival Oklahoma. Utah State will be headed to the Mountain West Championship if they can fend off the Cowboys with a 1-5 record in conference play.
Late Night
9:00 – UL Monroe (4-6) @ LSU (4-6) – ESPN2
9:00 – New Mexico (3-7) @ Boise State (6-4) – FS1
10:30 – Arizona State (7-3) @ Oregon State (6-4) – ESPN
11:00 – Colorado State (3-7) @ Hawaii (4-7) – TBD
The LSU Tigers can still make a bowl and walking over the Warhawks shouldn’t be an issue. Boise has won 3 straight and isn’t out of the MW Mountain division race if Utah State takes a tumble. ASU and the OSU Beavers are the highlight of the evening. The Sun Devils aren’t out of the Pac-12 South race quite yet but losing to the Beavers, in year 5 of the Jonathan Smith rebuild and bowl eligible for the first time since 2013, would punch them out.