College Football Picks: Week 5

  • Post category:Football

-Originally published 10/3/20-

Week 2 Picks: 7-1
Week 3 Picks: 7-2
Week 4 Picks: 12-5
Cumulative26-8

Friday, October 2nd

Louisiana Tech (2-0) @ #22 BYU (2-0) – 9pm, ESPN2

BYU has beaten Navy and Troy, two solid non-power 5 schools, by a combined score of 103-10. BYU QB Zack Wilson isn’t throwing a large volume with the run game averaging almost 250 yards-per-game, but he’s efficient completing over 78% of his attempts. The defense has 9 sacks. Louisiana Tech hung 66 points on Houston Baptist last week, but managed to give up 38 to the now 0-3 Huskies and BYU managed to shut down a much better Troy offense last week.

Pick: BYU

Saturday, October 3rd

South Carolina (0-1) @ #3 Florida (1-0) – Noon, ESPN

The Gamecocks fumbled away (literally) an opportunity to put a game winning drive together to beat Tennessee last week. Junior Kingsley Enagbare recorded 5 tackles, 2 sacks and a forced fumble on the defensive side and senior wideout Shi Smith has 10 grabs for 140 yards and a touchdown. Florida shouldn’t have much difficulty destroying this young South Carolina team. Kyle Trask threw for over 400 yards, the Gators rushed for just shy of 200 yards combined and the defense recorded four sacks in beating a decent Old Miss team last week.

Pick: Florida Gators

TCU (0-1) @ #9 Texas (2-0) – Noon

Teas is going to have to survive another shoot out this week. The QB duo of Max Duggan and Matthew Downing put up 400 yards through the air in a 37-34 Iowa State loss. They were 8-16 on 3rd down. Sam Ehlinger for Texas has thrown for 688 yards, 10 Tds, and 1 Int. He has another 81 yards and 1 Td on the ground. Texas’s defense was supposed to be a strength this season, but they struggled last week giving up 56 points to Texas Tech. If the Longhorns can’t tighten things up, they’ll have another close one before the Red River Rivalry October 10th.  

Pick: Texas

Missouri (0-1) @ #21 Tennessee (1-0) – Noon, SECN

Missouri managed 13 points late against Alabama’s in the fourth quarter last weekend but was shut down most of the game. The defense wasn’t able to get much pressure on Alabama, but the Tigers field a much improved top-15 defense last season and will have better days. Tennessee narrowly escaped South Carolina, but has but pressure on South Carolina and was able to sack Gamecocks QB Collin Hill 4 times. This affair should be low scoring with both teams riding the defensive side of the ball to win games. Tennessee looks to be in better shape on right now.

Winner: Tennessee

NC State (1-1) @ #24 Pittsburgh (3-0) – Noon, ACCN

Pittsburg looks stellar. QB Kenny Pickett is a real QB (712 Yds, 5 Tds, 2 Ints, 66% Comp), the run game is averaging over 140 yards-per-game and the defense is full of NFL players. This defense has 17 Sacks in 3 games. NC State was pounded by a Virginia Tech team (45-24) that was missing its starting QB and a handful of others due to covid concerns. The Wolfpack have real QB problems and won’t be able to move the ball much against Pitts defensive front.

Pick: Pittsburg

#13 Texas A&M (1-0) @ #2 Alabama (1-0) – 3:30pm, CBS

Texas A&M was not very good in a sloppy opening weekend for the SEC, while Alabama was one of the few teams that looked ready to roll. A&M has struggles on the offensive line, at QB, converting 3rd down and they had eight penalties and 3 turnovers. The Tide was efficient against the Missouri Tigers and experimented with true freshman QB Bryce Young late. They aren’t fully up to speed, but Alabama shouldn’t have issues stifling A&M’s offense.

Picks: Alabama

#12 North Carolina (1-0) @ Boston College (2-0) – 3:30pm, ABC

North Carolina had a rough start against Syracuse two weeks ago and hopefully the two week layoff hasn’t given them time to work on the offense. Even with all the explosive offenses in college football, Sam Howell, the true sophomore QB, is one of the best future NFL players in the country. Mack Brown has three excellent recruiting classes under his belt that are starting to bear fruit. The Tar Heels will face some adversity in what is shaping up to be an ok Boston College squad guided by sophomore QB Phil Jurkovec (510 Yds, 3 Tds, 2 Ints, 70% comp, 44 rush/rds, 2 rush/tds), but hopefully we start to see the full potential of this UNC roster start to come together.

Winner: North Carolina

South Florida (1-1) @ #15 Cincinnati (2-0) – 3:30pm, ESPN+

Cincinnati slowed the Knights of Army last week and pulled out the victory. Cincinnati’s strengths this season were supposed to be its defense and mobile threat at QB, Desmond Ridder (454 Yds, 4 Td, 1 Int, 43 rush/yds). Both have been, but neither has been extraordinary at their duties. Ridder hasn’t been average and hasn’t used his legs much. The defense is doing what it takes to win, but its particularity frightening. South Florida is a mess so Cincinnati won’t have to be extraordinary here.

Pick: Cincinnati

#17 Oklahoma State (2-0) @ Kansas (0-2) – 3:30pm, ESPN

Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders might be ready to play after going down in the opener two weeks ago. The offense for the Cowboys hasn’t been good, but they survived West Virgina 27-13 last week star running back Chuba Hubbard got going for 101 yards (4.6 per carry) and a touchdown, but those are far from the Heisman-type numbers he was putting up last season. Kansas is horrific and hiring Les Miles hasn’t made an impact for as the school has now lost to Costal Carolina for two straight seasons and continues to be in contention for the worst D-1 team.

Pick: Oklahoma State

#25 Memphis (1-0) @ SMU (3-0) – 3:30pm, ESPN2

A sneaky good game tucked in the afternoon ESPN2 slot. Former Michigan QB Shane Buechele led SMU to a 10-3 record last season after an 8-0 start and the Mustangs are hot again this season. The Mustangs have put up over 1,600 yards of offense and are averaging over 48 points per game. Memphis has only played one game, but the offense logged 222 rushing yards and 280 passing yards in the opener. Senior QB Brady White threw for 4 touchdowns and completed 73% of his passes. Memphis has the more complete roster and should pull out the win, but this should be one of the better games on the day.

Winner: Memphis

#7 Auburn (1-0) @ #4 Georgia (1-0) – 7:30pm, ESPN

JT Daniels, the former USC Trojan, has been cleared to play for Georgia and will probably be the starting quarterback on Saturday. Stability at the Quarterback position should start to right the ship for the Bulldogs. The defense looked good against Arkansas, but the offense had to rally to score 25 points in the 2nd half of the 37-10 victory of an Arkansas team they should have beat by 40. Bo Nix (16/27, 267 total/yds, 3 Tds) lead the Auburn Tigers in a solid 29-13 win over Kentucky. The defense got pressure on the Wildcats, but will be susceptible to Georgia’s run game. If Georgia gets good play out of JT Daniels or Stetson Bennett who directed last week’s victory, the Bulldogs should roll.

Winner: Georgia

Tulsa (0-1) @ #11 UCF (2-0) – 7:30pm, ESPN2
Central Florida gave up too many points to East Carolina last week, but the offense wasn’t having any problems in a 51-28 win. UCF has found a trio of backs Greg McCrae (25 Att, 133 Yds, 2 Tds), Otis Anderson (25 Att, 110 Yds, 1 Td), Bentavious Thompson (22 Att, 107 Yds, 1 Tds). QB Dillion Gabriel (825 Yds, 8 Tds, 1 Ints, 67% comp) still runs the offense with top targets Marion Williams (23 Rec, 290 Yds, 2 Td, 12.6 Avg) and Jaylon Robinson (15 Rec, 255 Yds, 2 Tds, 17 Avg). Tulsa hung tough with Oklahoma State in a 16-7 loss. The defense racked up 7 sacks and slowed Chuba Hubbard, but the offense struggled. UCF will win but it’ll be interesting to see what Tulsa is able to do on both sides of the ball moving forward.

Pick: UCF

Arkansas (0-1) @ #16 Mississippi State (1-0) – 7:30pm, SECN ALT

Mississippi State’s K.J Costello was magnificent throwing for over 600 yards in an upset of LSU, but the Tigers still made MSU work for it. MSU game up 5 sacks, 2 interceptions and the run game was almost non-existent. The intercepts are part of the gamble of throwing 60 times per game, but the air raid offense would still like a productive ground game when they choose to run and the offensive line could improve. This time will face its bumps, but they’ll light up an awful Arkansas team this weekend.

Winner: Mississippi State

#18 Oklahoma (1-1) @ Iowa State (1-1) – 7:30pm, ABC

Iowa State survived TCU 37-34 last weekend after losing at home to Louisiana in its home opener. The Cyclones were only 3-11 on 3rd down and Brock Purdy was efficient (18/23, 211 yards, 1 Td) but he doesn’t look like one of the top quarterbacks available for the 2021 NFL draft. The Cyclones are leaning on the run game averaging 185 yards-per-game. Oklahoma’s defense was atrocious giving up 31 2nd half points against Kansas State last weekend in the 38-35 loss. Spencer Rattler threw three interceptions and was miserable in crunch time. Iowa could make things interesting if they can get the ground game going and control the clock.

Pick: Oklahoma Sooners

#20 LSU (1-0) @ Vanderbilt (0-1) – 7:30pm, SECN

LSU needs to figure out the defense despite 5 sacks and 2 interceptions against Mississippi State. They’ll have the perfect opportunity to right the ship against the Commodores who only mustered 255 yards of offense against Texas A&M last week.

Pick: LSU

Virginia (1-0) @ #1 Clemson (1-0) – 8:00pm, ACCN

Clemson will finally hit the field again after dropping Wake Forest two weeks ago. Virginia defeated a bad Duke team and the defense look decent. The offense will rely on the ground game that posted 188 rushing yards. Virginia could field a decent team, but Clemson will hammer them.

Pick: Clemson