-Originally published 12/18/20-
It’s Championship Saturday! It’s Championship Saturday! A top 5 day in college football along with opening Saturday, National Championship Monday, playoff Saturday, and New Year’s day/New Year’s 6. It’s a huge disappointment that the Sun Belt had to cancel last minute after a great season for the conference. Coastal Carolina had covid issues that forced the game to be called between the undefeated Chanticleers and 9-1 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. The Sun Belt saw Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, and Appalachian State (8-3) ranked in the top 25 with Georgia State, Georgia Southern and Troy looking decent at times and Arkansas State knocking off Power 5 opponent Kansas State.
Week 2 Picks: 7-1
Week 3 Picks: 7-2
Week 4 Picks: 12-5
Week 5 Picks: 11-5
Week 6 Picks: 8-3
Week 7 Picks: 7-6
Week 8 Picks: 9-7
Week 9 Picks: 15-4
Week 10 Picks: 11-6
Week 11 Picks: 14-1
Week 12 Picks: 12-2
Week 13 Picks:10-3
Week 14 Picks: 12-8
Week 15 Picks: 8-3
Cumulative: 143-56
Friday, December 18th
USA Championship
UAB (5-3) @ Marshall (7-1) – 7pm, CBSSN
Pick: Marshall
MAC Championship
Ball State (5-1) @ Buffalo (5-0) – 7:30pm, ESPN
Pick: Buffalo
Friday night brings us four non-Power 5 teams that have had excellent seasons. UAB has been competitive since the program restarted a few years back. Marshall was shock by an awful Rice team with a backup QB in their one loss this season. They’re an excellent squad with multiple players on both sides of the ball that have NFL potential. Ball State reached this point after a crazy ending to their matchup against Western Michigan last week. They were dealt a blow when top running back Caleb Huntley opted out of the rest of the season. Buffalo’s Jaret Patterson (1,025 yards, 8.3 avg, 18 tds) is must-watch television averaging over 200 yards and three touchdowns per game. Don’t sleep on these games.
Pac-12 Championship
Oregon (3-2) @ #13 USC (5-0) – 8pm, FOX
Pick: USC
The highest paid commission is Pac-12’s Larry Scott who has been crushed recently in light of terrible decisions (and for taking a bonus before laying off half his employees due to Covid). Another is made here as 3-1 Washington is unable to play in the Pac-12 Championship due to Covid cases so 2nd place in the North, Oregon at 3-2, will be taking their place. Colorado finished 2nd in the North behind USC at 5-1 but hasn’t played the Trojans this season. A real opportunity was missed by skipping standard rules and matching the two best P12 teams in Colorado and USC up against each other and giving USC a chance to raise its potential playoff resume if it defeated Colorado, who is currently ranked #25. Oregon actually has a better chance to beat the Trojans as well; it should be an excellent game with two big-time sophomore quarterbacks.
Saturday, December 19th
Big Ten Championship
#14 Northwestern (6-1) @ #4 Ohio State – Noon, FOX
Pick: Ohio State
The Buckeyes defensive line is dominant and will crush Northwestern. Even if they aren’t actually sacked the quarterback they’re generating pressure. Northwestern’s secondary is solid but they haven’t played a quarterback like Justin Fields. I don’t think OSU rolls NW by 20 points; I think it’ll stay within a 2 touchdown margin in the second half.
Big 12 Championship
#10 Oklahoma (7-1) @ #6 Iowa State (8-2) – Noon, ABC
Pick: Oklahoma
The winner still has a chance to make the playoffs if there are some upsets ahead in the rankings. Oklahoma and Iowa State’s defenses are right next to each other at 234.2 and 235 yards allowed defensively, respectably. OU is now tied for 5th in the country in sacks (33) and the defense is now probably the best in the Big 12. It would be nice to see ISU win their first conference title of any kind since 1911 but I expect OU to win the Big 12 for the fifth straight year and 11th time in 15 years.
ACC Championship
#3 Clemson (9-1) @ #2 Notre Dame (10-0) – 4pm, ABC
Pick: Notre Dame
Nobody is selecting Notre Dame to win this rematch and knock Clemson out of the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence and several defensive starters were out for the OT ND win in early November so it’s easy to say things will be different this time. Ian Book has greatly improved as the season progressed and ND has the best offensives line in the country. Offensively the weapons are comparable. Defensively Clemson has a real advantage at linebacker where all three starters are graded in the top 36 linebackers nationally per Pro Football Focus. I just think the Irish are going to be able to mitigate Clemson’s advantage in the front seven with its offensive line and be able to win in another epic shootout.
Mountain West Championship
Boise State (5-1) @ #24 San Jose State (6-0) – 4:15pm, FOX
Pick: Boise State
Boise State was pounded 51-15 by BYU back in early November and the Broncos were without QB Hank Bachmeier. SJS hasn’t had a winning record since 2012 when they finished 21st in the AP poll after an 11-2 season. It’s been slow moving for Brent Brennan but a combined 3-22 record in his first two season turning into a 5-7 record (including a win over Arkansas) last season as the program continues to turnaround. SJS has a solid 30-20 win over Nevada but doesn’t have any wins over anyone else with a winning record this season. Neither team has really stood out this season, but this will be a competitive matchup.
SEC Championship
#1 Alabama (10-0) @ #7 Florida (8-2) – 8:00pm, CBS
Pick: Alabama
Florida was absolutely embarrassed last week at home by a 3-5 LSU team that was down to 50-something players, started a true freshman quarterback and field on of the worst defenses in the country. Florida could have won without a stupid shoe-throwing penalty, but it wasn’t a sure thing and it should have been a 40 point blowout. I’m not sure how the Gators bounce back with playoff hopes now gone. I think Alabama absolutely demoralizes the Gators and the loss to LSU last week really put doubt in Florida’s mind and will bleed into this game.
AAC Championship
#23 Tulsa (6-1) @ #9 Cincinnati (8-0) – 8pm, ABC
Pick: Cincinnati
Tulsa isn’t usually known for their defense but this unit is one of the best in the country. Defensively, both teams are top-20 in fewest total yards allowed and top-21 (Tulsa is 21st) in fewest points allowed. Tulsa’s lone loss was an opening day 16-7 offensive struggle against Oklahoma State. Cincy has looked a little better defensively and QB Desmond Ridder (1,821 pass/yrds, 16 pass/tds, 6 Int, 66.5 Comp%, 526 rush/yds, 11 rush/tds) guides a more efficient offense. The Bearcats should pull away late in a defensive battle.
Texas A&M should knock off Tennessee on Saturday as well. With my picks above, I expect Alabama to lock up the #1 playoff seed, Notre Dame to lock up #2 after knocking out. Clemson, Ohio State to move up to #3 after a Big 10 Championship. This leaves the controversial #4 spot.
Clemson with two losses and no conference Championship will be out. The committee will still feel like they’re one of the “best teams” in the country and consider putting them in, but a potential third meeting with Notre Dame in the playoffs is just ridiculous. Texas A&M is sitting at #5 right but is begging to get jumped. They’ll move to 8-1 after knocking off Tennessee but they lost to the only good team they played (Alabama) and don’t have a conference Championship. # 6 Iowa State will drop after losing to #10 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game. #7 Florida and #8 Georgia are two loss teams with no more games to play. After #9 Cincinnati and #10 Oklahoma win, they’ll both jump Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, and losers Clemson and Iowa State.
That’ll leave the committee to decide between 9-0 AAC Conference Champions Cincinnati or 8-2 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma. I personally would select undefeated Cincy over a two loss team; I think drawing the line at a two-loss team for the playoffs is a big deal except in extenuating circumstances. This isn’t one of those circumstances, Cincinnati is a worthy playoff team. The committee has emphasis that they want the “four best teams in the playoffs” a point they’ve followed through on by consistently placing Ohio State in the top 4 despite playing half as many games as teams below them. I think the committee will select Oklahoma to make the playoffs again. My top 10 after the final week of the regular season is below. The committee will decide who makes the playoffs Sunday Dec. 20th at 7pm.
#1 Alabama
#2 Notre Dame
#3 Ohio State
#4 Oklahoma
#5 Cincinnati
#6 Clemson
#7 Texas A&M
#8 Florida
#9 USC
#10 Iowa State
