-Originally published 11/23/20-
The top 8 in the AP poll has stayed the same after over a dozen games were cancelled for a second consecutive week. Several times have had two or more weeks off and that’ll probably be the case going forward. Teams with real playoff chances (should we make it there) are shrinking with Oklahoma State getting eliminated by Oklahoma last week by picking up their 2nd loss of the season. Two losses is essentially the unspoken eliminator. Undefeated Power-5 teams are shoe-ins, one-loss conference champs, non-Power 5 undefeated teams with tough schedules and Power 5 one loss teams that aren’t Conference Champions are those getting in. Shortened schedules this season will cause controversy if a Pac-12 team goes 6-0, the shortest schedule among the Power-5. The realistic list of teams with a shot this season is Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Clemson, Texas A&M, Florida, Cincinnati, BYU, Oregon, Miami, Northwestern, Indiana, Wisconsin and USC. Everyone is sure Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Clemson will be in, I think one or possibly two of those teams could get shock and we could see Cincinnati, Northwestern or another surprise in the playoffs.
Week 2 Picks: 7-1
Week 3 Picks: 7-2
Week 4 Picks: 12-5
Week 5 Picks: 11-5
Week 6 Picks: 8-3
Week 7 Picks: 7-6
Week 8 Picks: 9-7
Week 9 Picks: 15-4
Week 10 Picks: 11-6
Week 11 Picks: 14-1
Week 12 Picks: 12-2
Cumulative: 113-42
Friday, November 27th
#15 Iowa State (6-2) @ #20 Texas (5-2) – Noon, ABC
Pick: Texas
#2 Notre Dame (8-0) @ #25 North Carolina (6-2) – 3:30pm, ABC
Pick: Norte Dame
#9 Oregon (3-0) @ Oregon State (1-2) – 7:00pm, ESPN
Pick: Oregon
Black Friday gives us an awesome triple header to enjoy. Oklahoma knocking off Oklahoma State on Saturday closed the door on the Big 12 making the playoffs but the top of the conference has been improving. Texas didn’t get to mow down Kanas last week (game postponed) but they were no doubt already looking ahead to ISU and they’ll be ready. ISU destroyed Kansas State 45-0 and looked great on both sides of the ball. I think Sam Ehlinger will push be too much for Iowa State and they’ve been great against the run recently so I think they’ll be able to slow down the nation’s leading rusher in Breece Hall (1,1,69 yrds) and tied for 2nd in rushing touchdowns (15).
Who is Hall tied with in rushing touchdowns? None other than Javonte Willams of North Carolina. He’s averaging 7.2 yards per carry and has become another weapon on the Tar Heels offense. UNC is 4th in the nation a 563.4 yards/per game offensively. They’re 10th at 43.1 ppg. The defense is giving up over 400 yards and 30 ppg and that’s killing them. They’re allowing over 150 yards on the ground and that’s going to be problematic against Notre Dame’s elite offensive line and collection of backs. Ian Book is peaking at the right point and ND looks like a complete team. This game should be an awesome shootout, but ND is capable of making stops that UNC can’t.
Oregon survived UCLA 38-35 last week. Sophomore QB Tyler Shough (873 Yds, 8 Td, 2 Int) continues to look like a star in the making. OSU survived a late California drive to avoid going 0-3 last week. Jermar Jerrerson (449 Yds, 7.2 Avg, 5 Tds) has looked like a great back and they’ve been competitive, don’t discount them from hanging around for a while.
Saturday, November 28th – Early Afternoon Slate
#3 Ohio State (4-0) @ Illinois (2-3) – Noon, FS1
Pick: Ohio State
Kentucky (3-5) @ #6 Florida (5-1) – Noon, ESPN
Pick: Florida
Maryland (2-1) @ #12 Indiana (4-1) – Noon
Pick: Indiana
Texas Tech (3-4) @ #21 Oklahoma State (5-2) – Noon, FOX
Pick: Oklahoma State
#24 Tulsa (5-1) @ Houston (3-3) – Noon
Pick: Tulsa
Ohio State and Illinois played an excellent game last weekend that saw Ohio State squeak it out 42-35. Michael Penix out performed Justin Fields with a 27/51 for 491 yards, 5 Td, 1 Int stat line to 18/30 for 300 yds, 2 Td, 3 Ints, 78 Rush yards and a rushing Td for Fields. Fields still accounted for almost 400 yards of offense and was able to run all over the Hoosiers defense. Penix kept his team in the game with the offensive line collapsing in front of him all day and a rush game that provided -1 rushing yards while allowing 307 to Ohio State on the ground. Maryland’s game was cancelled last week and they’re offense has looked potent, but Indian’s secondary was actually decent against Ohio State and I think they’re be ok against Maryland. The run defense needs work. I think Michael Phenix will continue to improve and that’s scary for the Big 10.
Florida struggled against Vandy last week but Kentucky can’t score at all and Trask will continue to make a late Heisman push. Oklahoma State’s offense is inconsistent for some reason, but they’ll be able to move the ball against TT. Tulsa pulled out the Tulane game 30-24 in double OT thanks to a pick-six provided by their excellent defense. I expect that defense to smoother Houston.
Saturday, November 28th – Mid-Afternoon Slate
Minnesota (2-3) @ #18 Wisconsin (2-1) – 2:00pm, BTN
Pick: Wisconsin
#16 Coastal Carolina (8-0) @ Texas State (2-9) – 3:00pm, ESPN+
Pick: Coastal Carolina
#23 Louisiana (7-1) @ UL Monroe (0-8) – 3:00pm, ESPN3
Pick: Louisiana
#22 Auburn (5-2) @ #1 Alabama (7-0) – 3:30pm, CBS
Pick: Alabama
Pittsburg (5-4) @ #4 Clemson (7-0) – 3:30pm, ESPN
Pick: Clemson
#11 Northwestern (5-0) @ Michigan State (1-3) – 3:30pm
Pick: Northwestern
#7 Cincinnati (8-0) @ Temple (1-6) – 4:00pm
Pick: Cincinnati
Northwestern looks like a real threat in the Big 10 and surprisingly dangerous after how vulnerable Indiana made Ohio State look. MSU has managed 7 points their last two games so I expect them to struggle to score against Northwestern’s brutal defense. According to ESPN Analytics Northwestern is in good shape with wins over Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue and the suddenly explosive offensive squads of Maryland and Iowa.
Graham Mertz for Wisconsin should recover after throwing 3 interceptions in his first real test against the Wildcats. Minnesota doesn’t quite seem to have things figured out yet and were lucky to win against Purdue last week. The Iron Bowl won’t be very competitive this season. Auburn is very good on 3rd down (51% conversion rate) and they average 4.6 yards-per-rush-attempt and 170 yards on the ground, but Alabama is next level. It could be over by halftime. Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, and Cincinnati all get easy match ups.
Pittsburg and Clemson could be sneaky good. Pitts QB Kenny Pickett was leading the nation in passing yards before suffering an ankle injury again Boston College. Pitt lost that game and games against Miami and Notre Dame without Pickett. The past couple week Pickett has returned and the team has performed much better with blowout wins over Florida State and Virginia Tech, the rushing attach has also been more effective. Pickett is still 15th in the nation with just over 2000 passing yards. I would estimate he’d be no lower than 6th if he weren’t injured. Pitt is 5th in rushing yards allow at 87.3 per game, just one spot below Notre Dame who gave Clemson fits a few weeks ago. The pass defense is missle-of-pack giving up 311 ypg. They tied for 2nd nationally in interceptions (12) and 1st in sacks by a mile (40). Trevor Lawrence hasn’t played since in over a month and Clemson has been plagued with injuries. Last week’s game was postpones so they haven’t played in two weeks. I can’t pick Pitt with a soft secondary and unreliable run game, but I think they’ll hang until the end.
LSU (3-3) @ #5 Texas A&M (5-1) – 7:00pm, ESPN
Pick: Texas A&M
#13 Georgia (5-2) @ South Carolina (2-6) – 7:30pm, SECN
Pick: Georgia
#14 Oklahoma (6-2) @ West Virginia (5-3) – 7:30pm
Pick: Oklahoma
Colorado (2-0) @ #19 USC (3-0)
Pick: USC
South Carolina, Kentucky, and Arkansas are the only SEC schools who have managed to play eight games so far this season and the first team to fire their coach this season. Georgia finally gave USC transfer JT Daniels a shot at QB last week and he recorded a 28 for 38, 401 yard, 4 touchdown performances in a 31-24 victory over Mississippi State. He had to show out with Zamir White being held to 21 yards rushing. SC fields a solid front so it’ll be interesting to see if this was just an anomaly and to see how well JT will continue to perform. Texas and LSU didn’t play last week but LSU has one of the worst defenses in the country. Oklahoma’s defense looked good last week in a 41-13 upset win over Oklahoma State. West Virginia the best passing defense in the country (161.5 ypg) but I expect the Sooners to win by a couple touchdowns.
USC/Colorado could be an afternoon or a night game. The Trojans have won three straight, two tight games against Arizona and ASU and big win against Utah last weekend. They aren’t consistent but they look better than Colorado who slipped by UCLA and Stanford. Either the Buffalo’s offense is explosive or the defenses they’ve played are bad. Either way the Trojans defense will have to make some plays.