-Originally published 11/17/20-
This week we have several games that play into the playoff picture. Ohio State/Indiana, Wisconsin/Northwestern, Cincinnati/UCF, and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State are all important matchups as the season closes on a month reminding in the regular season. Make sure to check out BYU in its 2nd to last game of the season. Zack Wilson will be making a late push for the Heisman. Miami/Georgia Tech has been postponed and more games could be on the way. Last week saw over a dozen games get postponed or cancelled. We saw an oddity last week with the California/Arizona State and Utah/UCLA games getting cancelled on Friday due to positive tests on ASU and Utah’s teams. Then California and UCLA decided to play each other less than 48 hours later on Sunday morning. Forget watching film, these teams are just trying to get football in.
Week 2 Picks: 7-1
Week 3 Picks: 7-2
Week 4 Picks: 12-5
Week 5 Picks: 11-5
Week 6 Picks: 8-3
Week 7 Picks: 7-6
Week 8 Picks: 9-7
Week 9 Picks: 15-4
Week 10 Picks: 11-6
Week 11 Picks: 14-1
Cumulative: 101-40
Thursday, November 19th
Tulane (5-4) @ #25 Tulsa (4-1) – 7:30pm, ESPN
Pick: Tulsa
Tulsa lost to Oklahoma State 16-7 in a close opener but they’re 4-0 win wins over ranked Central Florida and SMU since then. Tulsa is 27th at 21.8 points per game and winning with defense. Tulane is 2nd in the nation in sacks (31) but they’re tied for the 6th most passing touchdowns allowed (18). They have a potent offense which is necessary with the touchdowns the defense gives up. This should be an excellent game, but I’m selecting the team with victories over common opponents SMU and UCF.
Saturday, November 21st – Noon Slate#9 Indiana (4-0) @ #3 Ohio State (3-0) – Noon, FOX
Pick: Ohio State
#4 Clemson (7-1) @ Florida State (2-6) – Noon, ABC
Pick: Clemson
#6 Florida (5-1) @ Vanderbilt (0-6) – Noon, ESPN
Pick: Florida
Appalachian State (6-1) @ #15 Coastal Carolina (7-0) – Noon, ESPN2
Pick: Coastal Carolina
Charlotte (2-3) @ #15 Marshall (7-0) – 12:30pm
Pick: Marshall
The noon slate is light, but features a key matchup in the Big 10 between Indiana and Ohio State. With Penn State, Michigan, and Minnesota all disappointing and out of the playoff and New Year’s Six Bowl picture entirely, only Wisconsin and Indiana have a real shot outside shot of pushing Ohio State for a playoff spot. Northwestern can’t be mathematically eliminated, but the schedule is soft. Michael Penix will be able to move the ball on OSU’s secondary. Penix has stayed pretty clean in the pocket (5 sacks). OSU has had two weeks off now with the Maryland cancellation last week. Often we see matchups between powerhouses and the team/flavor of the year and it’s a blowout when they’re matched against a traditional power. This should be an excellent, tight, contest similar to the classic Indiana-Penn State game earlier this year.
Both Clemson and Florida stand at one loss and still in the playoff picture. Kyle Trask (2,171 Yds, 28 Td, 3 Int, 70% Comp) is throwing together an MVP caliber season with 4 touchdown passes thrown in all six games this season. The Gators have a cupcake schedule (Vandy, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU) to meet Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Clemson will be returning Trevor Lawrence, but they’re still suffering for a number of injuries. FSU has been suffering through multiple injuries (and losses) as well. The Sun Belt gets another huge matchup with Appalachian State and CC going at it for control of the East division. App State, CC, and Marshall for that matter, all field top-20 defenses nationally in total yards and points allowed. Both teams have fun offense’s that average 32+ ppg, protect the QB, don’t commit turnovers, don’t commit penalties and are comparable in total yardage with App State leaning more towards the run and CC more of a balanced attack. I’ll go with CC, this will be one of the best games of the weekend.
Saturday, November 21st – Mid-afternoon Slate
Central Arkansas (5-4) @ #24 Louisiana (7-1) – 2:00pm, ESPN+
Pick: Louisiana
North Alabama (0-3) @ #8 BYU (8-0) – 3:00pm, ESPN3
Pick: BYU
Ole Miss (3-4) @ #5 Texas A&M (5-1) – 3:30pm, CBS
Pick: Texas A&M
#7 Cincinnati (7-0) @ UCF (5-2) – 3:30pm, ESPN
Pick: Cincinnati
#10 Wisconsin (2-0) @ #19 Northwestern (4-0) – 3:30pm, ABC
Pick: Wisconsin
#22 Texas (5-2) @ Kansas (0-7) – 3:30pm, ESPN2
Pick: Texas
Kentucky (3-4) @ #1 Alabama (6-0) – 4:00pm, SECN
Pick: Alabama
Kansas State (4-3) @ #17 Iowa State (5-2) – 4:00pm, FOX
Pick: Iowa State
The afternoon slate will have Texas A&M, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin on upset watch. The Aggies have a slew of issues and aren’t even in the conversation for possibly winning the SEC. They’ve already lost to Alabama and they aren’t on Florida’s level should circumstances put the Aggies in the SEC game against the Gators. Ole Miss’s offense is explosive. They’re 3rd in total yards per game (564.9) and throwing up 41 ppg. The catch 22 is obviously the 4th most yards given up per game (535.6 yards) and 40.9 points given up per average. QB Matt Corral (2,359 Yds, 22 Td, 9 Int, 74% Comp) is 5th in yards, 6th in average yards per attempt, tied for 4th in touchdowns, and 5th in completion percentage nationally. Everyone is on upset watch against the Rebels. Northwestern has put together a solid campaign after last season’s 3-9 debacle of a season. The Badgers look like they can upset the Buckeyes with QB sensation Graham Mertz (375 Yds, 7 Td, 74.4%) at the helm. It’s big in the Big 10 picture, but it would be a huge upset if Northwestern pulled out the win. Cincinnati has looked dominant the entire year wining by an average score of 41-12 and don’t look to slow down against AAC power Central Florida. The Knights have the best opportunity to pull an upset in the afternoon slate behind Daniel Gabriel (2,774 Yds, 23 Td, 2 Int, 63.3% Comp) and a solid defense.
BYU and Texas won’t have any problems, but both Zach Wilson (2,512 Yds, 22 Td, 2 Int, 75%, 158 Rush/Rds, 8 Rush/Tds) Sam Ehlinger (1,834 Yds, 22 Tds, 5 Int, 58.8%, 323 Rush/Yds, 7 Rush/Tds) are putting up video game numbers. Sun Belt West division leader Louisiana won with defense earlier in the year and is showing glimpses of consistent offense finally. Alabama will roll a Kentucky team with an awful offense. Iowa State and Kansas State should play close but ISU is clearly the better team and they’re still in the running for the Big-12 title.
Saturday, November 21st – Night Games
Tennessee (2-4) @ #23 Auburn (4-2) – 7:00pm, ESPN
Pick: Auburn
Mississippi State (2-4) @ #13 Georgia (4-2) – 7:30pm, SECN
Pick: Georgia
#14 Oklahoma State (5-1) @ #18 Oklahoma – 7:30pm, ABC
Pick: Oklahoma
#21 Liberty (8-0) @ NC State (5-3) – 7:30pm, ESPN3
Pick: Liberty
#20 USC (2-0) @ Utah (0-0) – 10:30pm, ESPN
Pick: USC
Georgia is having QB issues so it’ll be interesting to see what they do going forward. Auburn didn’t look good earlier in the season, but they’ve played better the past couple weeks dismantling LSU and slowing down Ole Miss’s potent offense. Tennessee has again taken a Top-25 preseason ranking and blown it. Auburn’s defense will stifle their sloppy offense.
The Big 12’s last shot at the playoffs rests on Oklahoma State winning out and the biggest challenge remaining is rival Oklahoma. The Sooners defense has been improve the past few weeks and is forcing turnovers, sacking opposing QB’s and really making a difference. OSU’s offense still hasn’t quite looked right all season and they’ll be in trouble if they can’t keep up with the pace of the Sooners. This is the week the Big 12 removes themselves from the playoff conversation.
Liberty as an independent continues to roll through its hodge-podge schedule with another ACC after a 2-0 start so far this season. Duel threat QB M Willis (1,645 Pass/yds, 15 Td, 1 In, 67.8%, 700 Rush/Yds, 9 Rush/Tds) controls the offense that scores 40 ppg and should win a tight contest against a middle-of-the-pack Wolfpack team. USC is off to a slow start, but they’re winning and should take down Utah in their season opener.
