-Originally published 8/24/21-
Four familiar faces in Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma will be favorites for the playoffs again barring a major upset. Alabama has reloaded with the best recruiting class in college football history and will be piloted by Bryce Young. The top recruit has been scouted since he was in middle school and was thought to take the starting job last season until Mac Jones exploded. He didn’t look elite in his playing time as a backup and lacked during the spring game, so what he’ll look like when the Tide matchup against Miami September 4th for opening kickoff is sort of a mystery.
A visit to Texas A&M in college station October 9th is probably the biggest contest on the schedule. Road games against Florida, Auburn and a neutral site game against Miami are circle dates with the strong SEC West foes LSU and Ole Miss. I don’t expect Alabama to go undefeated this season and it could get tricky should they take a conference loss to a team like Texas A&M. It would then require A&M to have 2 conference losses for Alabama to make the SEC title game. It’s possible the Tide makes the playoffs without a SEC championship appearance although that would be highly contested.
Clemson returns its entire defense and QB DJ Uiagalelei received a blessing in disguise for his development with Trever Lawrence missing time last season due to Covid protocol (but he still stood on the sidelines?). DJ was able to notch multiple starts including a massive game against Note Dame in a loss that challenge the young QB and allowed him to cut his teeth early. The Tigers open against Georgia but have one of the easiest power 5 schedules in the country the rest of the way.
The Tigers wouldn’t face North Carolina or Miami, arguable the best teams in the ACC after Clemson, until potentially the ACC Championship game. I expect Clemson to pretty easily roll to 13-0 and grab one of the top playoff spots.
Ohio State seems to be starting CJ Shroud at QB although that has been up in the air. He’s a former Elite 11 QB and they’re rarely busts in college. He’ll also have the support of arguable the top two WR’s in the country in Chris Olave Jr and Garrett Wilson this season. The Buckeyes are stockpiling recruits and play a winnable Big 10 schedule. Day grabbed five of the top 10 2021 players in the recruiting class. The first time that’s ever happened in the history of recruiting rankings. The defense is replacing half of its starters and the backend struggled in 2020. The division is one of the best (Penn State, Michigan, Indiana) and the Buckeyes also open @ Minnesota and host Oregon week 2 so the schedule is tough right off the bat with new defensive pieces and a new QB. A perfect 13-0 record isn’t out of the question possibly 12-1 with a Big Ten Championship. There’s also a 2% chance the Buckeyes lose @ Minnesota and to Oregon the first two weeks to start 0-2 biting off more than they can chew early in the season.
Finally, Oklahoma returns Heisman and No.1 2022 NFL selection favorite Spencer Rattler at QB surrounded with offensive weapons as always in Norman. Oklahoma is the only school out of the top 4 National Title hopefuls that returns their starting QB. The defense, an achilles heel for the Sooners under Lincoln Riley, looks to be up to the challenge of holding up their end in route to a title. Fifteen starters return and all position groups are ranked in the top 10 best units per Phil Steele’s College Football preview. Defense end Nik Bonitto has moved to the 1st round of 2022 draft projections.
The Big 12 schedule is a grind, but Oklahoma does play Iowa State and TCU at home. The Red River Rivalry will be played in Dallas October 9th and Oklahoma State, the toughest true road game, will be the last game of the season.
I’m open to arguments for how these four teams should be ranked. The Sooners have made the playoffs 4 of 7 years since the playoffs began in 2014 but sit with a 0-4 record. In fact Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State have accounted for 17 of the 21 playoff wins with LSU grabbing two in 2020, Georgia one ‘18, and Oregon a semifinal win in the first playoff in 2015. LSU’s title run in 2020 wasn’t just phenomenal, it was improbable. Does the team with even the four-most playoff appearances have a chance at the prize?
You would have a better chance landing on the moon than selecting a darkhorse team to break through and win a title this season. Once you make the playoffs, a task monumental itself, you still have to win two games against the best in the country. Then again, we’re closer to space exploration that we’ve ever really been. Two losses essentially eliminate you from contention with the strength and records of other squads.
Texas A&M and Georgia both have a chance to dethrone Alabama and make the National Championship game. The Aggies will have to figure out the quarterback position but have returning talent on both sides of the ball at every position to compete and they get Alabama at home. Georgia doesn’t have to survive Clemson in the opener but they would have to run the table and win the SEC Championship to finish 12-1. A win over Clemson however, could be huge. It would notch possibly the best win for any team this season and afford Georgia a loss along the way. Even a SEC Championship game loss with a 12-1 final record could get Georgia in the playoffs if the cards broke right. I think Georgia will win be left out of the playoffs but finish with a more impressive record and place above Ohio State in final polls along with Wisconsin.
The Badgers should open up the offense with QB Graham Mertz. The true sophomore is the highest profile recruit to ever come through the program He dazzled against Illinois in the season opener last season as a true freshman before fading into Wisconsin’s 3-3 finish. 9/4 Penn St, 9/25 Notre Dame, 10/2 Michigan, 10/30 Iowa, and 11/27 Minnesota are the tough dates on the schedule but I think the Badgers run the table and finish either 11-1 or 12-0 and lose to Ohio State in the Big 10 title game.
The Cyclones return 20 starters including two Heisman candidates in QB Brocky Purdy and RB Breece Hall. A huge 9/11 non-conference matchup with Iowa is the biggest early game on the slate but the back end 10/23 Oklahoma St, 11/6 Texas, 11/20 Oklahoma and 11/26 TCU all come in a rough 33 day stretch that also includes road trips to West Virginia and Texas Tech. Texas can’t pick a QB and has depth issues. TCU will be the biggest obstacle with the most complete team returning but ISU should still make the Big 12 Championship. They’re just a level below Oklahoma and will have to settle for a New Year’s Six Bowl.
The Pac-12 is likely to be left out of the playoffs again. Oregon, Washington, Utah, USC, even Arizona State if they can survive recruiting violations for now, will all have a shot to win the conference. Big non-conference matchups (Oregon/Ohio State, Washington/Michigan, USC/Notre Dame, ASU/BYU, UCLA/LSU, Utah/San Diego State) will either push the Pac-12 into the spotlight for the season or set them back immediately. I expect USC to win the conference behind the offense and QB Kedon Slovis.
Non-Power five teams received a greater platform last season thanks to power five conferences staggered start times. The Sun Belt played almost a complete season with Louisiana and Costal Carolina both make waves nationally. Forty starters return between the two squads that’ll be in the top 30 to start the season and the conference has some depth.
Conference USA and the MAC probably won’t see any team ranked in the Top 25. The MAC played the shortest conference schedule (five) in 2020 but was entertaining. Kent State and QB Dustin Crum the nation in offense (606.5 ypg, 49.8 ppg) last season and will be one of the best in the country again. UAB is expected to win conference USA.
The Mountain West will be an exhilarating race between Boise State, Nevada and former basement dweller San Jose State. A nice middle level of Air Force, Fresno State, San Diego State and Wyoming will make the conference full of excitement every week.
QB Desmond Ridder (66%, 2,996 pass/yds, 16/6 Td/Int ratio, 592 rush/yds, 12 rush/tds) returns with the hope of guiding Cincinnati to the playoffs after narrowly missing last season. The schedule is much tougher with road trips to Indiana (9/18) and Notre Dame (10/2) hopefully opening more doors with victories. Fourteen plus starters return for an offense that averaged 37.5ppg. 10/16 UCF, 11/6 Tulsa, and 11/20 SMU are key conference dates. The AAC is still the most talented non-power 5 conference but the Mountain West, MAC, and Sun Belt are about the same level in teams of inter-conference competition.
Notre Dame will be living on the edge the entire season. The Irish could struggle and limp to 7-5 or the roster could gel will excellent coach behind transfer QB Jack Coan (Wisconsin) and top back Kyren Williams. ND faces five consecutive opponents coming off bye weeks with two weeks to prepare in Wisconsin, Cincinnati, @Virginia Tech, USC, North Carolina with all but VT possible playoff teams. They also open on the road @Florida State and close @ Stanford. The schedule isn’t impossible, per usual, but it’s more of an uphill climb than most recent seasons.
Liberty has an opportunity to rank in the Top 25 again with most of the returning and NFL prospect Malik Willis back and QB. The schedule isn’t daunting and that’s a blessing and a curse. One slip up could prevent the Flames from pushing for a major bowl game. 9/11 @ Troy, 10/2 @ UAB, 11/6 @ Ole Miss, 11/20 Louisiana are the tougher contests. The low end is Campbell, Old Dominion, Massachusetts, and Army West Point.
