-Originally published 11/15/20-
The first half of the NFL season is has been interesting. We don’t have many defenses that matter, storing is at a historic pace, we don’t know when players are going to miss a game and hit the Covid list, we’re getting along just fine with no fans, and the Chiefs are ready for another Super Bowl. Taking into account what we’ve seen so far, I’ve recalibrated my original preseason rankings.
Preseason Rankings
| 1. Kansas City Chiefs 13-3 | 17. New England Patriots 8-8 |
| 2. Baltimore Ravens 13-3 | 18. Atlanta Falcons 8-8 |
| 3. San Francisco 49ers 12-4 | 19. Arizona Cardinals 7-9 |
| 4. New Orleans Saints 11-5 | 20. Denver Broncos 7-9 |
| 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6 | 21. Minnesota Vikings 8-8 |
| 6. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 | 22. Houston Texans 8-8 |
| 7. Dallas Cowboys 10-6 | 23. Las Vegas Raiders 6-10 |
| 8. Buffalo Bills 9-7 | 24. Detroit Lions 6-10 |
| 9. Seattle Seahawks 10-6 | 25. LA Rams 5-11 |
| 10. Indianapolis Colts 10-6 | 26. Miami Dolphins 5-11 |
| 11. Cleveland Browns 10-6 | 27. NY Giants 5-11 |
| 12. Green Bay Packers 10-6 | 28. Cincinnati Bengals 4-12 |
| 13. Tennessee Titans 9-7 | 29. Carolina Panthers 4-12 |
| 14. Chicago Bears 9-7 | 30. NY Jets 5-11 |
| 15. LA Chargers 9-7 | 31. Washington 3-13 |
| 16. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 | 32. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13 |
| NFC Playoff Picture | AFC Playoff Picture |
| San Francisco 49ers – 1st Rd Bye | *Kansas City Chiefs – 1st Rd Bye |
| New Orleans Saints | Baltimore Ravens |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Indianapolis Colts |
| Green Bay Packers | Buffalo Bills |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Wild Card | Cleveland Browns – Wild Card |
| Seattle Seahawks – Wild Card | Tennessee Titans – Wild Card |
| Dallas Cowboys – Wild Card | LA Chargers– Wild Card |
*Super Bowl Champion 2021
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (7-2) Preseason: 9-7 Projected: 11-5
Josh Allen has been one of the surprise QB’s of the year. Out of the gates Allen had the offense scoring over 30 ppg over the first four games before crashing to 18.7 ppg the next four. The offense goes as Allen goes. Devin Singletary has become the lead rusher (386 yds, 4.1 avg, 1 Td) but the run game isn’t capable of winning games by itself like Minnesota, Tennessee, Cleveland, San Francisco, Baltimore or even Green Bay at this point. He’s They’re tied for 6th with 24 sacks, but the defense is very middle-of-the-pack. At 7-2 this team is a few Josh Allen flub-ups from being caught by the quickly gaining Dolphins.
Miami Dolphins (5-3) Preseason: 5-11 Projected: 9-7
The Dolphins are two games into the Tua adventure (350 Yds, 3 Tds, 65.4%) and riding a 4-game win streak. They’re tied for fourth in turnover differential (+5) and 10th in points scored at 27.8 ppg while holding opponents to 17.9ppg, almost a 10 point difference. They’re 5th best in the league in completion percentage allowed to opposition QB’s (62.8%). I’m excited to watch Tua the rest of the season and to see how the young defense continues to play. The schedule is workable with the Chargers, Broncos, Jets, Bengals all next up and the Patriots, Raiders and Bills on the backend. The Dolphins have a real shot at the playoffs. This is the model of a quick, efficient turnaround in the NFL.
New England Patriots (3-5) Preseason: 8-8 Projected: 7-9
The question; “Who will have a better season Tom Brady or Bill Belichick?” has a quick answer. The Patriots lack of personnel on defense due to opt-outs is starting to show and offensive is very limited. RB Sony Michel and WR Julian Edelman are getting healthy and should both return. Injuries are still piling up here and there on any given week but it’s hard to envision a real run for the Patriots. They’ll have big decisions to make on both sides of the ball in the offseason. The offense needs to be rebuilt, with or without Cam Newton, is the most pressing question. They have a lot of money invested in the defense for next season and several of the players will be shaking off a years rust. They’ll have as interesting an offseason as anyone.
New York Jets (0-7) Preseason: 5-11 Projected: 1-15
Seven of the Jets losses have come by 10+ points, they have the worst offense (266 yards), fewest points scored (13.4) , the defense is 27th in points allowed (29.8) and 27th in yards allowed (402.7). The Jets won’t be favored in any games left on the schedule despite a spirited effort against the Patriots in week 9. Sam Darnold (1,045 yds, 3 Td, 6 Int, 58.6%) has been in an awful situation but who knows if he’s any good or not. Someone will trade for him and give him another shot. The Jets will probably have their hands on Trever Lawrence next season and will be sifting through who will survive an offseason of roster turnover. This roster isn’t as bad as the record indicates LB C.J. Mosley should return from Covid opt-out next year, WR Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims have missed time and TE Chris Herndon has been underutilized. The defense is young. The biggest question is when will Adam Gase finally get tossed?
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0) Preseason: 9-7 Projected: 14-2
The toughest division in football is highlighted by the Steelers defense shutting teams down. They’re 1st in sacks (32), tied for 1st in interceptions (11), allow the lowest completion percentage (56.7%), 6th in yards allowed (317.4) and tied for 4th in points allowed (20.1). The offense is finally healthy after the disastrous 2019 season, but they’re bottom-10 in the league even with all the offensive weapons. The schedule is easy with the Bengals twice, @ Jacksonville, Washington, Colts, @ Bills, @ Browns, Ravens left to play. This defense is devastating and it’ll be the playoffs before someone really challenges it.
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) Preseason: 13-3 Projected: 12-4
Lamar Jackson isn’t where he was last season but the offense is getting criticize unfairly. The passing offense is 31st in the league (176.9 yards), but the run game is 1st (170.1 yards) and 8th (28.4) in points-per-game. They still have a top-10 defense, top-5 pressure rate, top-10 in sacks. They haven’t quiet picked up where they did last season, but they’re showing consistency everywhere outside of quarterback at a championship level. It is disappointing to see Lamar struggle, but this team will make a run even if he doesn’t come around this season. Maybe they should get Jackson some real receivers.
Cleveland Browns (5-3) Preseason: 10-6 Projected: 10-6
This team has struggled to beat good competition with wins against Washington, Dallas, Cincinnatin (twice) and the Colts. They have losses to The Steelers, Ravens, and Raiders. Nick Chubb is getting ready to return and the offensive line is getting healthier. I would really like to see if Case Keenum can guide this team better than Baker Mayfield. The 2nd half of the season is an easy schedule with the Texans, Jags, Jets, Giants all on the schedule and winnable games @ Tennessee and against the Eagles along with the 2nd meetings of the Ravens and Steelers. Anything short of 10 wins and the playoffs would be a disaster.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1) Preseason: 4-12 Projected: 5-10-1
Joe Burrow is 8th in passing yards (2,272 yards) and is my pick for rookie of the year. RB Joe Mixon and the WR core Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins is a great start for Joe. The next step is to get him some protection up front. Burrow is already top-12 in the league at the QB position.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (5-3) Preseason: 10-6 Projected: 11-5
This entire division has been disappointing. All of these teams have major flaws. The Colts are 1st in yards allowed (290 yards) 3rd in points allowed. The offensive side of the ball is another story. Philip Rivers should have retired. The receiving core has been without Parris Campbell and TY Hilton has completely disappeared. They should make the playoffs behind the defense, but they won’t make it far in the playoffs.
Burrow is already top-12 in the league at the QB position.
Tennessee Titans (6-2) Preseason: 9-7 Projected: 10-6
The Titans have the opposite issue of the Colts. Offensively, they’re in great shape but the defense is awful. Top 10 in passing yards and total yards allowed, they’re and middle of the league in points allowed. They do have the top turnover differential in the league at +10. They’ve only turned the ball over 4 times this year. Derrick Henry is 2nd in rushing (843 yards) and tied for 3rd in rushing Tds (8). The Titans will have a limited playoff stay unless they can get the backend figured out.
Houston Texans (2-6) Preseason: 8-8 Projected: 4-12
I couldn’t give the Texans enough losses in my preseason write-up. I thought Watson could drag this team to a handful of victories, but so far they’ve only managed to beat Jacksonville. They’ve played a brutal schedule and its easier going forward, but it’s a lot of middling teams that could go either way. This is one of the worst rosters in the league and they’re wasting a great QB. They have to walk into a couple wins down the stretch.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) Preseason: 3-13 Projected: 2-14
Jacksonville was going to let Gardner Minshew give a go, then he was going to get pulled, then he got her anyways, now Jake Luton is playing, This team is a terrible mess. At least the next guy will walk into a good skill position player group. Seven of the final eight teams on Jacksonville’s schedule could be in the playoffs. They’ll be fighting over Trever Lawrence with the Jets.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) Preseason: 13-3 Projected: 14-2
Other than struggling to stop the run, the Chiefs are ready to win another Championship. They’re 2nd in the league in turnover differential (+8) and they’re 2nd in total yards, passing yards, and points per game behind Seattle.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-3) Preseason: 6-10 Projected: 8-8
The Raiders are winning even though they aren’t posting any big edges statistically. The defense isn’t great and the offense isn’t either but Derrick Carr is efficient (69.8% Completion-5th) and incorporating Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards will help open up the offense. The schedule includes the Jets, Falcons, Denver (twice), Dolphins, Colts, Chargers, and the Chiefs. The Raiders are a hot pick to make the playoffs, but without a real strength on either side of the ball to hang their hat on I think they fade down the stretch.
Los Angeles Chargers (2-6) Preseason: 9-7 Projected: 6-10
The Chargers specialty is blowing big leads at this point in the season. Justin Herbert will continue to keep the Chargers in games (or ahead for 3 quarters) and some wins have got to be coming. The Chargers are #2 in yards per game (420 yards) but the defensive collapses late in games are laughable now that the season is out of hand. The squad could make a second half run with the talented roster. The offensive line is horrible, Herbert is prone to mistakes and the defense would need to quickly fix some things.
Denver Broncos (3-5) Preseason: 7-9 Projected: 6-10
Drew Lock isn’t very good and the Broncos will be looking for a new QB this offseason. Melvin Gordon is the model of an unnecessary running back signing (56.1 yards-per-game) with Philip Lindsay still a reliable option. The receiver core can’t stay healthy and is young, Von Miller is still out, Denver will compete this season but searching out a new quarterback and pushing for good healthy and more experience next season should be the goal. The schedule includes the Raiders (twice), Chiefs, Saints, Dolphins, Bills, Panthers, and Chargers, a rough road.
NFC
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) Preseason: 10-6 Projected: 7-8-1
The NFC East is embarrassing, but I believe in the Eagles and Carson Wentz to figure things out. They still aren’t heathy and honestly the schedule is still brutal with the Seahawks, Packers, Saints, Cardinals and Browns sill on the schedule outside of divisional games.
Washington (2-6) Preseason: 3-13 Projected: 5-11
Washington has played three quarterbacks and maybe we’ll see another free agent audition before the season is up and then all will be shown the door in the offseason. Antonio Gibson and the wide receiver core have some players. The defensive isn’t as advertised.
New York Giants (2-7) Preseason: 5-11 Projection: 5-11
Daniel Jones is a bust and the Giants will be in position to grab a QB to replace him. He has some wheel and can absolutely takeoff, but he’s just not a good quarterback. The defense is pretty good and Squadron Barkley returning next season will give the offensive some of the juice it’s missing. The remaining schedule is brutal with the Seahawks, Cardinals, Browns, Ravens, Eagles, Bengals and Cowboys left.
Dallas Cowboys (2-7) Preseason 10-6 Projected: 3-13
What a disaster the Cowboys have been. Coming into the season the secondary was the only question mark. As it turns out, the entire defense is questionable and the offense can’t function without Dak Prescott under center. If the Cowboys end up with a Top-5 pick, they’re better off drafting a top QB prospect and paying the cheap rookie salary rather than spending a ransom for Dak Prescott.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers (6-2) Preseason: 10-6 Projected: 12-4
Aaron Rodgers (2,253 Yds, 24 Td, 2 Int, 67.5%) is in the running for MVP and will continue the hunt for the rest of the season. Allen Lazard will be returning from injury to complement Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. The defense is nothing special, but it doesn’t need to be when the offense is performing at the level that it is (395.9 ypg – 7th).
Chicago Beats (5-4) Preseason: 9-7 Projected: 9-7
The Bears defense is legit, one of the few difference making units in the league. It’s such a shame the offense is miles behind. They’re 20th in passing yards (235.4) and 32nd in rushing yards (82.3) and they’re 29th (19.8) in points-per-game amazingly and have managed a winning record. The schedule remaining includes the Packers and Vikings twice, Lions, Texans and Jags. The defense will continue to grab them some wins, but this team is trending down. Add this to the list of teams with a competent roster needing a QB.
Minnesota Vikings (3-5) Preseason: 8-8 Projected 8-8
The Vikings defense has been really really bad (412.9 ypg-29th). The secondary is an absolute travesty, but better days are ahead. The Vikings have the Bears twice, Jags, Panthers, Cowboys, Lions, Buccaneers, and the Saints left on the schedule. Continuing to integrate Rookie Justin Jefferson (34 Rec, 627 Yds, 3 Tds) and riding Dalvin Cook (858 Yds, 6.0 Avg, 12 Tds) makes the offense dangerous and plenty of teams are getting it done with poor defensive performances this season. They have a -3 turnover differential, tied for 22nd in the league, more efficient play by Cousins (10 Ints) would help.
Detroit Lions (3-5) Preseason: 6-10 Projected: 6-10
Matt Patricia is on his way out of town with the 20th ranked offense (359 ypg) and 24th ranked defense (392 ypg). Kenny Gollaway injuries haven’t helped and some weeks it looks like the run game is finally coming along, but the defense isn’t good and neither is the coaching. The passing offense built around Matthew Stafford’s passing ability is no longer unique as most of the NFL leans on the passing attack, they’re 18th at 24.6 ppgThe schedule has wins available, but the Lions aren’t showing improvement as the season continues.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints (6-2) Preseason: 11-5 Projected: 11-5
The 2nd best division behind the NFC West. The Saints have hammered the Buccaneers twice already and are front-runners to win the NFC South already. The defense hasn’t always looked top-flight but is top-5 in yards allowed (311.6 ypg) and the offense has revolved completely around Alvin Kamra (471 Rush/Yds, 565 Rec/Yds, 12 Total/Tds). Michael Thomas is back and he’ll be a huge addition. The Saints are the most complete team in the NFC.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) Preseason: 10-6 Projected: 10-6
Tampa has dropped both contests against the Saints, but the offense is still getting healthy and hasn’t hit its peak yet. Brady is 4th with 20 touchdowns and 6th in passing yards with 2,398. The offensive line will continue to get better, Antonio Brown is only one game in, and Chris Godwin is still working back into rotation. The defense is 2nd in sacks (29), tied for 1st in interceptions (11), 4th in yards allowed (312.9) and safety Antonie Winfield Jr is in the running for defense rookie of the year. The schedule looks easy with the Chiefs, Rams, Vikings, Panthers, Lions, and Falcons (twice) on the slate but all of these teams have some fight and Tampa will have a tough finish. They’ll be ready to compete with the Saints for a Super Bowl appearance in the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) Preseason: 8-8 Projected: 6-10
Matt Ryan leads the league with 2,746 passing yards and hope. The Falcons can make a real run in the 2nd half of the season. They’ve won 3 of the past 4 with the only loss against the Lions as time expired. They’re 7th in pressure rate (24.%) and have a positive turnover differential (+2). Todd Gurley is getting more involved, Julio Jones is healthy, and Calvin Ridley will hopefully be back soon. The schedule is brutal with the Saints (twice), Tampa Bay (twice), Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers so its hart to project too many more wins coming, but I think they will pull some surprises.
Carolina Panthers (3-6) Preseason: 4-12 Projected: 5-11
Teddy two-gloves is 5th in the league with 2,416 passing yards and leads an offense that has kept them in most games. Christian McCaffrey is slated to rejoin soon and the staff will be cautious keeping him healthy for next year as this season slips away. The Panthers are middle of the league to bottom half in most offensive and defensive statistical categories at this point. The first half of this season should be considered a success and they’ll continue to compete and build for next season.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (6-2) Preseason: 10-6 Projected: 11-5
The Seahawks defense is dead last in the league by a mile (455.8 ypg) and 30th in points allowed (30.4). Russell and DK are awesome forces of nature but the lack of running game and poor offensive line play is starting prove an issue. This team will continue to power through a weak schedule (Rams twice, Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles, Giants, Jets, Washington) but don’t expect a Super Bowl run.
Arizona Cardinals (5-3) Preseason; 7-9 Projected: 10-6
Kyler Murry (2,130 Pass/Yds, 543 Rush/Rds, 16 Pass/Td, 7 Ints, 8 Rush/Tds) has become one of the best QB’s in the league in his second year in the desert. Adding DeAndre Hopkins (60 Rec, 734 Yds, 3 Td) is proving to be a wise trade and WR Christian Kirk and RB Edmonds are getting more involved in the offense. The defense has tightend up significantly after being the worst defense in the league last season. They’re middle of the pack in yards allowed and 8th in points allowed (22.5). The remaining schedule is middle-of-the-road (Bills, Seahawks, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, 49ers and Rams twice) and the Cards should lock up a playoff spot.
San Francisco 49ers (4-5) Preseason: 12-4 Projected: 9-7
The 49ers will bring back Richard Sherman, Raheem Mostert, George Kittle, and Jimmy Garopplo later in the season and the bye week is still coming up. They’ll probably lose to the Saints to fall to 4-6 before the break but face a nice schedule @LA Rams, Buffalo, Washington, @ Dallas where they should go at least 3-1 or 4-0 coming out of the bye healthy before the last two weeks with critical matchups against the Cardinals and Seahawks. I don’t think they quite make it, but I wouldn’t be surprise it they slipped inside the playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams (5-3) Preseason: 5-11 Projected: 9-7
The Rams offense line was one of the worst in the league last season and its one of the best this season. The defense is 2nd best in the league (292.9 yds), 2nd in points allowed (19), the offense is 6th in yards per game (39.4). I don’t have much faith they’re the real deal. The Rams have a -2 turnover differential, they’re 22nd in points scored and four of their wins are over the horrible NFC East. The schedule is tough (Seahawks twice, Cardinals twice, Buccaneers, 49ers, Patriots, Jets) and they’ve folded against better competition. I think they’ll have a tough time moving forward if Geoff is pressured and the defense has to cover offenses like the Cards, Bucs and Seahawks.
Projected Final 2020 Rankings
| 1. Kansas City Chiefs 14-2 (1) | 17. Chicago Bears (14) 9-7 |
| 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5) 10-6 | 18. Minnesota Vikings (21) 8-8 |
| 3. New Orleans Saints (4) 11-5 | 19. Las Vegas Raiders (23) 8-8 |
| 4. Pittsburgh Steelers (16) 14-2 | 20. Atlanta Falcons (18) 6-10 |
| 5. Baltimore Ravens (2) 12-4 | 21. New England Patriots (17) 7-9 |
| 6. Green Bay Packers (12) 12-4 | 22. Cincinnati Bengals (28) 5-10-1 |
| 7. Arizona Cardinals (19) 10-6 | 23. LA Chargers (15) 6-10 |
| 8. Buffalo Bills (8) 11-5 | 24. Detroit Lions (24) 6-10 |
| 9. Seattle Seahawks (9) 11-5 | 25. Carolina Panthers (29) 5-11 |
| 10. Indianapolis Colts (10) 11-5 | 26. Denver Broncos (20) 6-10 |
| 11. Cleveland Browns (11) 10-6 | 27. NY Giants (27) 5-11 |
| 12. San Francisco 49ers (3) 9-7 | 28. Houston Texans (22) 4-12 |
| 13. Tennessee Titans (13) 10-6 | 29. Dallas Cowboys (7) 3-13 |
| 14. Miami Dolphins (26) 9-7 | 30. Washington (31) 5-11 |
| 15. LA Rams (25) 9-7 | 31. NY Jets (30) 1-15 |
| 16. Philadelphia Eagles (6) 7-8-1 | 32. Jacksonville Jaguars (32) 2-14 |
| NFC Playoff Picture | AFC Playoff Picture |
| New Orleans Saints – 1st Rd Bye | *Kansas City Chiefs – 1st Rd Bye |
| Green Bay Packers | Pittsburg Steelers |
| Seattle Seahawks | Buffalo Bills |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Indianapolis Colts |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Wild Card | Baltimore Ravens – Wild Card |
| Arizona Cardinals – Wild Card | Tennessee Titans – Wild Card |
| LA Rams– Wild Card | Cleveland Browns– Wild Card |
Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins just miss the playoffs. *Chiefs over Buccaneers in a close win for the Super Bowl.
