-Originally published 10/15/21-
Fresh Squeezed
1pm – Chargers (4-1) @ Ravens (4-1)
Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson are two of the front runners for MVP in the top game of the day. LA has a top-10 offense, top-10 in points scored, the defense is top-10 for fewest passing yards allow, they’re top half of the league in takeaways and bottom half in giveaways and grabbed wins over Washington, Kansas City, Las Vegas and Cleveland 47-42 last week with 398 yards and 4 Tds from Herbuert. Baltimore launched a huge comeback over the Colts with 442 yards and 4 Tds from Jackson last week and the team has solid wins over Kansas City and Denver. Baltimore has shut down the run game but is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They’re currently the #1 offense putting up 440.6ypg. The game play will be both teams playing to their strengths. LA with its top passing offense and Baltimore with its top run game. I like Baltimore at home to control the clot and use Lamar’s ability to scramble and throw if necessary, even if he doesn’t have the same weapons that Herbert does.
Pick: Ravens.
1pm – Packers (4-1) @ Bears (3-2)
Chicago will have a good chance to operate against the Packers defense with multiple injuries. Justin Fields looked better in a 20-9 win over the Raiders last week but the defense is the highlight. LA was held to 259 yards of offense and sacked three times. Green Bay survived Cincinnati in OT 25-22. This will be a game of the Packers offense against the Bears defense.
Pick: Packers
4:05pm – Cardinals (5-0) @ Browns (3-2)
Kyler Murry’s shoulder looks like it could be an issue heading into Cleveland. Baker Mayfield’s shoulder has been an issue for a couple weeks. Sure makes you throw up your hands and shrug right? The Cards have a +5 turnover margin tied for 3rd in the league and a top offense but the engine is Murry. Nick Chubb is out for Cleveland but Kareem Hunt is more than capable to step in. Cleveland fields a top-5 defense in yards allowed and top-5 in yards offensively, just ahead of the Cards. Arizona could go here.
Pick: Browns
Lower Grove
TNF – Buccaneers (4-1) @ Eagles (2-3)
Brady injured his thumb against the Dolphins Sunday but he’ll be ready to go. Maybe the Bucs will move from the #3 offense to the #4. The Eagles are currently a top-10 defense and the offense isn’t dead behind Jalen Hurts. Weird things can happen on Thursday night and Philly fans will be fired up.
Pick: Buccaneers
1pm – Rams (4-1) @ Giants (1-4)
LA has real issues running the ball competently and they’re 10th in most yards allowed defensively. They’re not the run-away winners of the NFC West. The Giants aren’t holding up well on either side of the ball. Surprisingly, Daniel Jones is one of the highlights. Saquon Barley and every meaningfully receiver is on the injury report this week.
Pick: Rams
1pm – Chiefs (2-3) @ Washington (2-3)
KC fields the worst defense in the league and no game is a sure-thing. Washington caught the bull-end of the Saints 33-22 last week and Heincke had his worst game as a starter. He will have few road blocks against the Chiefs. I think Washington’s defense makes a stand.
Pick: Washington
1pm – Vikings (2-3) @ Panthers (3-2)
Carolina has fallen to earth recently and they shouldn’t have lost to the Eagles on Sunday. The defense is still top of the league in passing yards, rushing yards, and points allowed. The offense can still score but McCaffrey is out again and his assistance would be welcome. Minnesota is back to full strength with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen all ready for Sunday. This game will be competitive Sunday.
Pick: Panthers
4:25pm – Cowboys (4-1) @ Patriots (2-3)
New England has a bottom-10 offense and Dallas is 2nd in the league, 1 yard behind Baltimore with 439.6ypg. Dallas has shown great balance on both sides of the ball. On the flip side New England is top-5 in fewest yards allowed and Dallas is 2nd to last. The Cowboys has still been able to make stops when they count and the Patriots haven’t scored over 25 points this season. Dallas is averaging 34ppg.
Pick: Dallas
4:25pm – Raiders (3-2) @ Broncos (3-2)
The Raiders passing defense is 3rd best in the league and but bleeds yardage on the ground. Gruden’s disgusting exit will surely have a ripple effect as it seemed to in the Bears loss last week. Denver’s offense isn’t explosive but they can run the ball and keep pace against a team in disarray and headed in the wrong direction.
Pick: Broncos
8:15pm – Bills (4-1) @ Titans (3-2)
The Bills have cemented themselves as the top team in the AFC for now. Josh Allen is excellent, the run game is one board and the defense is locked in. Tennessee isn’t a very good squad with wins over the Seahawks, Colts and Jags. Julio Jones is out again, the defense is top-10 for most points allowed and passing yards allowed. Buffalo is an awesome machine to watch work.
Pick: Bills
Rotten
London – Dolphins (1-4) @ Jaguars (0-5)
The Fins are on a downward spiral with a 1 point win over the Patriots in the opener. Jacoby Brissett isn’t raising the ceiling and the defense isn’t good. The Jags are slowly getting close to putting a complete game together. I’m not sure Meyer’s indiscretions actually impacted the locker room much. This will be another weird game in London.
Pick: Jaguars
1pm – Bengals (3-2) @ Lions (0-5)
Detroit may be one of the feistiest teams in the league but that doesn’t mean the team is good. Cincinnati will probably struggled in Detroit and needs a win here. A 3-1 start could go downhill quickly with the schedule @Ravens, @ Jets, Browns, @ Raiders coming over the next month.
Pick: Bengals
1pm – Texans (1-4) @ Colts (1-4)
This is a reminder the Jags are silll in the race for the AFC South. Yikes.
Pick: Colts
8:20pm – Seahawks (2-3) @ Steelers (2-3)
Geno Smith will be taking the reins with Russell Wilson sidelined for several weeks. Chris Carson is out and the defense isn’t threatening. The Steelers knocked off the Broncos last week but are down JuJu Smith-Schuster for the rest of the season. Pittsburg should be favored at home with a top defense against a backup.
Pick: Steelers
