-Originally published 11/24/20-
Week 11 provided some surprises and set up an awesome Thanksgiving week. The Houston Texans won their first game over a team other than the Jaguars when they beat the Patriots 27-20. Denver upset Miami 20-13, Dallas stayed alive with a 31-28 victory over Minnesota, and Tennessee knocked off Baltimore in OT. Chiefs/Raiders, Packers/Colts, Eagles/Browns and Cards/Seahawks didn’t disappoint and Taysom Hill filled in nicely for Drew Brees. In bummer news Joe Burrow tore his ACL and appears to have other structural damage in his knee. Horrible news for such an awesome young player that’ll put next year into question.
With the Jets losing last week and the Colts win over the Packers, the Jets are the first team eliminated from the playoffs. Nobody is on bye this week, everyone gets to play on Thanksgiving weekend and that gives us a full platter of games to enjoy.
Pick Record
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 11-3
Week 8: 7-7
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 5-9
Overall: 98-63
Thursday, November 26th
Houston Texans (3-7) @ Detroit Lions (4-6) – 12:30pm, CBS
Pick: Houston Texans
Washington (3-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Baltimore Ravens (6-4) @ Pittsburg Steelers (10-0)
Pick: Pittsburg Steelers
Thanksgiving will certainly give us some intrigue on turkey day. The Texans jumped out against the Pat limited offense and they couldn’t catch up. Houston’s leaky run defense was able nullify the effectiveness of the Pats run game by forcing Cam to play catch-up and air the ball out 40 times for 365 yards. Detroit couldn’t manage even 200 yards of offense against the Panthers lousy defense. They managed to turn backup QB PJ Walker over twice but were still blanked 20-0. Both teams are bad but Houston’s defense might be getting a little better under intern coach Romeo Crennel and the offense showed a spark last week.
Minnesota outgained Dallas 430-376 yards but the Cowboys survived and Andy Dalton was proficient (22/32, 203 yards, 3 Td, 1 Int) after his concession and covid recover. Washington easily dispatched an awful Bengals team once Burrow went down. The defense looks good and continues to be the best passing defense in the league. The offense is limited behind Alex Smith. If Dallas’s defense can maintain some consistency in keeping Washington pinned down, the offense with Dalton at the helm should be able to find some room against Washington to pull out a slosh of a game.
Baltimore’s offense couldn’t cut it against Tennessee’s mediocre defense last week. That bodes real bad in a Pittsburg matchup against a Steelers team that already bumped them off 28-24 a month ago. Both Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins will be out due to covid. The passing offense is averaging less than 200 yards-per-game and that was the case against Tennessee’s spotty defense as well. With the top running backs out and the passing game not improving, the Raven are going to be cooked birds on Thanksgiving night.
Sunday, November 29th – Early Afternoon Slate
LA Chargers (3-7) @ Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Pick: Buffalo Bills
NY Giants (3-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1)
Pick: NY Giants
Miami Dolphins (6-4) @ NY Jets (0-10)
Pick: Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns (7-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)
Pick: Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans (7-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (7-3)
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers (4-7) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Arizona Cardinals (6-4) @ New England Patriots (4-6)
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Oakland Raiders (6-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
Pick: Oakland Raiders
The Jets came close to completing a comeback against the Chargers last week. Offensively they weren’t very impressive so it’s more indicative of the Chargers not being able to put them away. Defensively, they gave up over 350 yards to Herbert who had a field day, but they shut down the run. Neither team has a great matchup Sunday. Buffalo is coming off a bye and Miami had a rough week against Denver’s defense but Flores should have them ready for the Jets. Denver held Miami to 56 yards rushing and the Jets run D has been excellent. Tua will be relied on to make plays and get the offense going. Cleveland isn’t looking spectacular after escaping the Eagles 22-17 and Texans 10-7 in back-to-back weeks. Luck for them, they get another incompetent team this week. Cincinnati doesn’t have much going without Joe Burrow. 2nd year QB Ryan Ryan Finley has been an absolute bust completing less than 50% of his passes and a 2-3 TD/INT ratio in almost 100 career attempts. NY has been looking up and they’ll be in good shape to grab a shutout and an easy win here.
Teddy Bridgewater will hopefully be back for the Panthers this week. Neither Carolina or Minnesota’s defense are reliable, even with Carolina’s shutout of Detroit last week. Adam Thielen has been placed into the covid protocol for now, possibly taking a weapon out of the Vikings arsenal. I still trust Dalvin Cook to run be the best player on the field and guide the Vikings to their fourth win in five games. Arizona came up short against Seattle, but New England is very limited offensively. Cam Newton was forced to throw against Houston last week and he put up over 350 yards, but he couldn’t make key plays and only threw 1 touchdown. Arizona should rebound against the sinking Patriots. Las Vegas nearly had Kansas City beat again last weekend to complete the season sweep. The only problem was that Derek Carr left too much time on the clock for Mahomes to complete the comeback. On the defensive side of the ball the Raiders till aren’t very good. They’re top-10 in most yards allowed, 31st in sacks (11) and middling in all other statistical categories. The offense isn’t elite, but they’re getting it done. Matt Ryan was buried eight times by the Saints defense and the Falcons struggled to move the ball accounting for only 248 yards of offense. Atlanta is 2nd in passing yards (280.6 ypg) and the defense has been getting better. The Raiders are hard to pick against at this point.
Tennessee and Indianapolis are meeting for the 2nd time in three weeks for what is probably the AFC South division. The Colts won 34-27 in the previous meeting by clamping down and limiting Tannehill to 147 yards on 15 for 27 passing and mitigating Derrick Henry’s damage to 103 yards on 19 carries. Both teams racked up huge wins last week with the Tians winning in OT over Baltimore and the Colts defeating the Packers. This should be another heavyweight battle, but the Colts defense held the Packers to 66 yards last week and should be able to slow Henry again. The offense ls looking great and Michael Pittman Jr is starting to emerge as a threat.
Sunday, November 29th – Mid-Afternoon Slate
New Orleans Saints (8-2) @ Denver Broncos (4-6)
Pick: New Orleans Saints
SF 49ers (4-6) @ LA Rams (6-3)
Pick: LA Rams
Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What a juicy afternoon slate. The Saints will be continuing the Taysom Hill experience as Drew Brees continues to heal his ribs (the number injured increases with reports every day-we’re up to 12). Denver is 3rd in pressure rate (24.6%) and they’re winning with defense alone. They’re allowing 6.7 yards per completion (3rd), 28 sacks (7th), they’re 10th in passing defense but they give up over 120 yards on the run and are bottom of the league in interceptions. Some games they’ll give the quarterback fits. I expect to see Hill and Kamara racking up the rush yards more than air yards.
SF is coming off a bye and will be in good shape to take on a hot LA team fresh off a Monday Night win over Tampa Bay. Geoff fumbled and threw two interceptions against Tampa on MNF but didn’t take a sack and was reasonable under pressure. SF is still generation a high pressure rate even with all the injuries on the defensive line so Geoff will be under fire again. The 49ers should have a slew of players back for this game including the entire wide receiving core and Tevin Colman. CJ Bethard should be the starting QB. Most situations I’d go with Shanahan after two weeks off, but the covid issues combined with the injuries don’t make this a sure thing anymore. LA’s defense has looked better and better.
Tampa Bay and Kansas City are comparable defensively. They’re right next to each other in passing yards allowed, they’re 2nd and 6th in pressure rate respectively but Tampa Bay is 3rd in sacks (32) to Kansas City (18) tied for 19th. KC is also bleeding yards on the ground. This should be a chess match but Tom Brady’s offensive line has had issues protecting him at times and he can’t avoid pressure. Add in the timely drops, penalties and mishaps and they can’t get out of their own way sometimes. I think this is a Super Bowl preview with the Buc switching some things up defensively to give Mahomes some trouble but I don’t think they’ll quite be able to pull the upset.
Sunday, November 29th – SNF
Chicago Bears (5-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-3)
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Chicago had two weeks to prepare for the Packers, but the offense probably hasn’t improved much. The Packers can be pushed around on the ground but the Bears field the 32nd ranked rush offense (78.2) and David Montgomery is probably is out with a concussion. Cordarrelle Patterson, the converted receiver and kick returning, would hopefully get the bulk of the carries and have an opportunity to show his ability. He can’t be worse than Montgomery. Mitch Trubisky will presumably be back under center with Floes out, although they’ve already punted on him for the future so it’s possible we see veteran Tyler Bray. Chicago’s defense is good but hampered by the positions the offense puts it in. Rogers will take care of business against the Bears going into hibernation for the season.
Monday, November 30th – Monday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks (7-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle survived the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football and will have eleven days to prepare for the Eagles that continue to hang around. Carson Wentz is holding onto the ball too long and looks like he’s suffering from PTSD with all the pressure he’s faced. Seattle hasn’t been able to muster much of a pass-rush this season but they have three sacks and seven QB pressures against Kyler Murry so they might be turning things around. The secondary for Seattle isn’t good, but the Eagles won’t be able to keep pace with Russell Wilson.
