-Originally published 11/18/20-
This week’s slate isn’t great but we get awesome games Thursday, Sunday and Monday night including divisional games between the Cardinals/Seahawks, Chiefs/Raiders, and a great Rams/Buccaneers matchup. The Bills, Bears, Giants and 49ers are on bye.
Pick Record
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 10-5
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 11-3
Week 8: 7-7
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 10-4
Overall: 93-54
Thursday, November 19th
Arizona Cardinals (6-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
Pick: Arizona
The #1 and #3 offenses in the league Kenyan Drake is 7th in rushing yards (612 yds, 4 Td) and Kyler Murray is, astoundingly, 8th in the league in rushing yards (604 yds), 1st in yard-per-carry average (6.9), and 1st in rushing touchdowns (10 Tds). The Cards eeked out an OT win against Seattle earlier in the year and survived the Bills last week on a hail mail catch from Super Saiyan DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona is awesome, but they’re pulling out games which are either a great sign that things are going their way or a sign they’re due for regression. Seattle is still leading in ppg (32.2) but the glaring issues everywhere outside of QB/WR are starting to show. It’s hard to pick against Russell Wilson to give the Cardinals the season sweep of season, but the Cards are operating at a higher level on both sides of the ball right now. This is going to be can’t-miss football.
Sunday, November 22nd– Early Afternoon Slate
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) @ Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Pick: Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) @ New Orleans Saints (7-2)
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) @ Washington (2-7)
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions (4-5) @ Carolina Panthers (3-7)
Pick: Detroit Lions
Pittsburg Steelers (9-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
Pick: Pittsburg Steelers
Tennessee Titans (6-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots (4-5) @ Houston Texans (2-7)
Pick: New England Patriots
The Early afternoon slate is full of yucky games that won’t be fun to watch. The Eagles are bad and Nick Chubb’s return for Cleveland makes them one of the best run attacks in the league. Carson Wentz will be able to move the ball on the Brown’s secondary, but Cleveland should notch a big win there to stay on place for a playoff spot. Washington fields the best passing defense in the NFL allowing only 194.7 yards-per-game which is the Bengals strength. Washington’s offense is horrible regardless of quarterback. The Bengals defense isn’t good. I’m simply picking the better quarterback in a low scoring affair. Detroit and Carolina have bad defenses and not great offenses. Christian McCaffrey is probably out and Teddy Bridgewater suffered a knee injury and is probably out. XFL superstar P.J. Walker would start if Teddy misses, which is something to keep an eye on. Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola are probably out for Detroit. This is a snoozer. Houston sucks, especially against the run the Patriots bread and butter. Cam Newton might only throw the ball a dozen times. It’s a mystery why the Packers struggled to pull out a win against the Jags last week. The Steelers can’t completely overlook the Jags with offense not being real productive with Big Ben. Baltimore lost a slopfest with the Patriots on MNF last week, but they’ll destroy this awful Titans defense. Finally, keep an eye on the Falcons and the Saints. This could be the best game in the early window. Last season the Falcons made a late push after mid-season adjustments and this season the Falcons are in shape to do the same. Drew Brees out with injured ribs and the Saints probably staring Jameis Winston could be dynamic and open the offense or turn the ball over and be less efficient. I think the Falcons execute on offense and generate some pressure to disrupt the backup QB.
Sunday, November 22nd– Late Afternoon Slate
Miami Dolphins (6-3) @ Denver Broncos (3-6)
Pick: Miami Dolphins
NY Jets (0-9) @ LA Chargers (2-7)
Pick: LA Chargers
Green Bay Packers (7-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
Pick: Indy Colts
Dallas Cowboys (2-7 @ Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The late afternoon slate is more lively but still isn’t great. Rookie QB’s Tua and Herbert will take on bad teams in the Broncos and Jets. Denver’s defense is solid, but Drew Lock looks like he’ll be the next QB from the 2019 draft class to follow Dwayne Haskins out the door with Daniel Jones not too far behind. Both the Jets and the Chargers have to be looking at Sunday as an opportunity for a big win for team moral. LA has a roster better than their record but the defense of the Jets could surprise the erratic Herbert. Joe Flacco is expected to start and he was decent last week. Dallas is 32nd in points allowed and struggling to score. The Vikings are surging behind Cook and Cousins won his first Monday Night Game (1-9) last week. Minnesota’s defense is the catalyst of the team, but the Cowboys don’t pose a threat. The Vikings should hammer the ‘Boys. Packers/Colts should be the most competitive matchup. Green Bay is struggling against the run and I expect them to ran the ball down the Packers throat. They have the 2nd best pass defense in the league allowing only 198.7 ypg.
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) @ LV Raiders (6-3)
Pick: KC Chiefs
The Raiders stunned the Chiefs 40-32 on 10/11 behind a few big plays that kept the Raiders on pace with the Chiefs and a defensive plan that kept Patrick Mahomes off balance. Don’t expect that to happen again. The Raiders have a bottom-10 pass defense and are bottom half of the league in pressure rate. If they can’t disrupt Mahomes again he’ll tear them apart. Both offenses are efficient throwing the ball. KC has a top-5 pressure rate (26.4) and gets revenge in this fun Sunday Night matchup.
Monday, November 23rd
LA Rams (6-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)
Pick: TB Buccaneers
We’ve had some bad MNF games this year (see Bears/Vikings just last week) but this should be an excellent match up. I’m still not a believer in the Rams even though they have the best DT in the league in Aaron Donald, one of the best CB’s in Jalen Ramsey and a potent offense. Ronald Jones is working his way back into rotation in the run game after an awesome 98-yard touchdown run last week and Antonio Brown (7 Rec, 69 Yds-last week) has added another weapon to the pass attack. I don’t think the Rams offense will be able to move the ball effectively on the Bucs and Tampa will slowly pull away.