-Originally published 11/4/21-
Under Further Review Week 9
The Playoff Rankings are out and quite shocking but we’ll get to that discussion. As it stands, #6 Michigan, #9 Iowa, #10 Ole Miss, #12 Kentucky, #17 Pittsburgh, #19 SMU, #20 Penn State, #21 San Diego State, and #22 Iowa State all fell last week. This has several repercussions to the playoff potential for these squads. Michigan State’s win over Michigan puts them in good position to stay in the playoff race even if they were to trip up and lose a game but not make the Big 10 Conference Championship. By that same token, a one-loss Michigan isn’t eliminated yet. Iowa was an underdog at Wisconsin with both team’s offensive woes despite the top-10 ranking and fell. With that being their second loss they’ve been eliminated. The story is the same for Penn State who fought valiantly at Ohio State before falling 33-24. Kentucky could have won out and finished the season 11-1 in the SEC East but missed the SEC Championship with the lone loss to Georgia and Ole Miss could have done the same in the SEC West (lone loss Alabama). Unfortunately it wasn’t meant to be as the Wildcats were dominated 31-17 but Mississippi State and the Rebels were wacked by a resurgent Auburn team 31-20. The ACC suffered greatly with unbeaten Wake Forest the lone team with a playoff shot. One-loss Pitt is no more after Miami moved to 4-4 and won on the road 38-34 to play spoiler. SMU, the best team left on Cincinnati’s schedule, was dropped from the unbeaten after rallying to tie the game against Houston with 30 seconds remaining. A game that already had a kick returned for a touchdown by SMU poetically had one returned against them as 5’8 corner Marcus Jones returned the kick 100 yards for the game winning touchdown. SDSU also came down to earth as falling to Fresno State 30-20.
The AP top-25 this week sees 7 of 10 teams at the bottom of the poll are from non-power 5 conferences, showing a nice infusion of the smaller guys, however those ranks are not replicated in the Playoff Rankings.
Small Conference Picture
Fresno State now appear to be the best team in the Mountain West and have beaten fellow West division and MW contenders Nevada and SDSU in the past two weeks. They’ll be heavy favorites against Boise State, New Mexico, and @ San Jose State on the rest of the slate and in the MW Conference Championship against East favorite Utah State.
The MAC is a mess. North Illinois is 4-0 in conference play 6-2 overall in the West division and the runaway favorite. The other five squads are all 2-2 in conference play and 4-4 or 5-3 overall. Kent State and Miami Ohio are both 3-1 in the East (Both 4-4 overall) and the pair meet on the last day of the regular season in what could decide the division. Everyone else is 2-3 or worse in conference play. Not a great showing this season.
C-USA is riding high with the UTSA Roadrunners now ranked #16 and unbeaten (8-0) sitting at 4-0 in the West division. UAB (5-3) and UTEP (6-2) are 3-1 with the Miners taking a rough loss to 1st place East team, the FAU Owls this past weekend. UTSA and UTEP battle this weekend and both have yet to play UAB on 11/20 & 11/26 respectively. FAU (5-3), Marshall (5-3) and Western Kentucky (4-4), all sit at 3-1 in the East and haven’t played each other but FAU and Marshall clash this weekend.
The West is almost set in the Sun Belt with Louisiana (7-1) holding a 5-0 conference record, good for a 3 game lead. Appalachian State (6-2), Coastal Carolina (7-1) and Georgia State (4-4) all stand at 3-1 in the East with 2-2 Troy (4-4) a step behind. App State has already notched wins over CC and GSU so they’ll be headed to the Conference Championship if they can avoid slip-ups to @Arkansas State, South Alabama, @Troy, and Georgia Southern with the road date to Troy 11/20 the biggest landmine.
On a lesser note, the AAC with 11 members doesn’t have divisions. The two best teams make the Conference Championship at the end of the season. The division leader is actually Houston at 5-0 (7-1) after knocking out SMU who sits at 3-1. Cincinnati is 4-0 and doesn’t play Houston in the regular season. At the point it looks like the two will meet in the Championship game. Houston’s remaining schedule: @South Florida (2-6), @Temple (3-5), Memphis (4-4), @Connecticut (1-8). Cincinnati’s remaining schedule: Tulsa (3-5), @ South Florida (2-6), SMU (7-1), @East Carolina (4-4). SMU, the only other team with a realistic chance with everyone else sitting at two conference losses or more, would need to beat Cincinnati and win out or some combination of multiple Cincy/Houston losses: @Memphis (4-4), UCF (5-3), @Cincinnati (8-0), Tulsa (3-5).
No-Pulp’s Week 9 Top-25
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan State
6. Cincinnati
7. Oklahoma State
8. Notre Dame
9. Michigan
10. Baylor
11. Oregon
12. Auburn
13. Wake Forest
14. Texas A&M
15. Ole Miss
16. Pittsburgh
17. UTSA
18. Coastal Carolina
19. Kentucky
20. Louisiana
21. NC State
22. Fresno State
23. BYU
24. Iowa
25. Penn State
Top Watches –Week 10
Must Watch: 3:30 – #13 Auburn (6-2) @ #14 Texas A&M – CBS
This game won’t have any bearing on the playoffs but it’s the only game between ranked squads and sure-fire entertainment.
Audible: Noon – #5 Ohio State (7-1) @ Nebraska (3-6) – FOX
The Huskers might finally pull off a big win. Losses to Oklahoma, MSU, and Michigan by 5 or less show they’re capable.
Check In: 3:30 – #11 Oklahoma State (7-1) @ West Virginia (4-4) – ESPN
WV has 3 point losses to Oklahoma and Texas Tech with wins over Iowa State, Virginia Tech, and TCU. Morgan Town would be more than happy to welcome the newly minted #11 Cowboys to town and send them away with a loss.
Underrated: 4:00 – #17 Mississippi State (5-3) @ Arkansas (5-3) – SECN
These two will be at the bottom of the SEC West along with LSU. That being said Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M are the other division participants. These two are still Top-40 teams and Miss St is the only team in the Playoff ranking with 3 wins over other teams in the rankings.
Small Screen: 7:00 – Boise State (4-4) @ #23 Fresno State (7-2) – CBSSN
Fresno is good and atop a deep MW Conference.
Late Night Snack: 10:15 – #16 UTSA (8-0) @ UTEP (6-2) – ESPN2
So many great choices but how often are you going to see a great Conference USA team push for an undefeated record?
Weekday Slate
Tuesday, November 2nd
7pm – Ball State (4-4) @ Akron (2-6) – CBSSN
7:30pm – Miami Ohio (4-4) @ Ohio (1-7) – ESPNU
7:30pm – Eastern Michigan (5-3) @ Toledo (4-4) – ESPN2
Wednesday, November 3rd
7pm – Central Michigan (4-4) @ Western Michigan (5-3) – ESPNU
7pm – Northern Illinois (6-2) @ Kent State (4-4) – ESPN2
Thursday, November 4th
7:30pm – Georgia State (4-4) @ Louisiana (7-1) – ESPN
Friday, November 5th
7:30pm – Virginia Tech (4-4) @ Boston College (4-4) – ESPN2
10:30pm – Utah (5-3) @ Stanford (3-5) – FS1
MAction! Nothing like weekday ball in the Midwest! The highlight is a Wednesday matchup between Northern Illinois and Kent State the top teams in the West and East divisions respectively. On Thursday Sun Belt West favorite Louisiana takes host East contender Georgia State and their overwhelming ground game. The Ragin Cajuns are ranked 24th in the AP poll. Friday features a few squads fighting for bowl eligibility in the power five. BC is 0-4 in conference play with each game less competitive since fumbling away the would-be Clemson win a month ago. The Hokies stopped a three-game slid of their own by clipping Georgia Tech 26-17. Utah has lone control of the Pac-12 South and can’t afford a hiccup against a Stanford team that already knocked off visiting Oregon earlier in the season. If you Utah can survive on Friday, the remaining schedule: @Arizona (0-8), Oregon (7-1), Colorado (2-6) sets up for one more big game on the schedule, hosting Oregon 11/20.
Saturday, November 6th – Noon Slate
Fresh Squeezed
Noon – #9 Wake Forest (8-0) @ North Carolina (4-4) – ABC
The Tar Heels are the biggest regular season obstacle left for Wake Forest that’s score 35 or more in every game this season. UNC is outside of the top 100 allowing over 30 ppg and almost 400 yards so the Demon Decans will be zooming up and down the field. UNC is putting up 36.5 ppg game and capable of unloading scoring 45+ three times this season. WF has given up 34+ in three of its past four games so this will be a track meet.
Pick: Wake Forest 49-42
Noon – Liberty (7-2) @ #16 Ole Miss (6-2) – SECN
A non-conference fist fight that should fly under the radar between two top QBs in Matt Corral and Malik Willis. Liberty is ranked dead even at 300 ypg defensively, good for 10th best in the country and 13th in ppg allowed at 17.8. Not that the defense will be any match Corral, the Rebels leading rusher (519 yards, 10 Tds) in addition to a 2,000 yard passer. He should be healthy to play Saturday and it’s a big game. Huge Freeze is the head coach for the Flames and he’s coming for revenge.
Pick: Ole Miss 34-24
Lower Grove
11:30am – Army (4-3) @ Air Force (6-2) – CBS
Noon – #5 Ohio State (7-1) @ Nebraska (3-6) – FOX
Noon – Missouri (4-4) @ #1 Georgia (8-0) – ESPN
Noon – Illinois (3-6) @ #20 Minnesota (6-2) – ESPN2
Noon – #25 Pittsburgh (6-2) @ Duke (3-5) – ACCN
Noon – SMU (7-1) @ Memphis (4-4) – ESPNU
12:30 – Georgia Tech (3-5) @ Miami (4-4) – ESPN3
Ohio State has to be careful on the road against a Cornhusker team with losses to Oklahoma, Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota, and Purdue by 5 points or less. The squad rolls up 470ypg and can move the ball but turnovers at bad times have been killer. The Buckeyes have to win to stay in the playoff race and the Huskers need a win to stay bowl eligible. The Mustangs, ranked 23rd in the AP poll, will pack the armory and take one of the best offenses in the country to Memphis. A winning SMU team is good for Cincy who plays them in a couple weeks. Army and Air Force Battle it out in a fun matchup between the armed forces. Several teams involved in their respective conference races do battle as bi favorites with UAB hosting Louisiana Tech, Minnesota picking on Illinois, Pitt heading to Duke, Georgia battling a lifeless Missouri and resurgent Miami takes on the GT Yellowjackets
Afternoon Slate
3:30 – #3 Michigan State @ Purdue (5-3) – ABC
Kenneth Walker is now the Heisman front runner after racking up 197yds and 5Tds against Michigan. The Spartans are in a very dangerous spot on the road against the Boilermakers this week. Purdue’s last 7 have been gone W-L-W-L-W-L-W so they’re due for a loss by that logic. Payton Thorne didn’t play well last week and he’ll be facing a defense timed for #10 at 17.1ppg allowed and top-20 in yards allowed at 313.8. George Karlaftis is one of the top defensive ends in the country. It would be a huge wrinkle if both Ohio State and Michigan State were to go down days after the first playoff rankings were release.
Pick: Michigan State 24-20
3:30 – #13 Auburn (6-2) @ #14 Texas A&M – CBS
The two highest two-loss teams in the playoff rankings. Bo Nix continued his mini redemption tour with a 31-20 win over Ole Miss 276 yards and a passing Td and two more Tds on the ground. Carroll was in rough shape but Auburn was only 4-11 on 3rd downs, narrow edged the Rebels in yardage and lost the turnover battle 2-1. The Aggies have followed up the Alabama win with a bye week and blowout wins over bottom feeders Missouri and South Carolina. The ground game is still an important aspect to both teams. The Aggies behind Isaiah Spiller averaging 6.2 ypc should edge out the Tigers at home.
Pick: Texas A&M 31-27
Lower Grove
3:30 – Idaho State @ #17 BYU (7-2) – ESPN3
3:30 – Tulsa (3-5) @ #6 Cincinnati (8-0) – ESPN2
3:30 – Navy (2-6) @ #10 Notre Dame (7-1) – NBC
3:30 – #11 Oklahoma State (7-1) @ West Virginia (4-4) – ESPN
3:30 – #12 Baylor (7-1) @ TCU (3-5) – FOX
3:30 – Penn State (5-3) @ Maryland (5-3) – FS1
3:30 – #21 Wisconsin (5-3) @ Rutgers (4-4) – BTN
4:00 – #19 NC State (6-2) @ Florida State (3-5) – ACCN
4:00 – #17 Mississippi State (5-3) @ Arkansas (5-3) – SECN
A fleet of options are available in the afternoon slate. Non-Power 5 Cincy, BYU, and Notre Dame should all destroy their respective appoints. Not of them have a real chance to make the playoffs but any sliver of a chance will only be recognized by blowing out the remaining opponents on the schedule. Oklahoma State and Baylor will both have to avoid trap games in route to a potential Big 12 Championship game. Oklahoma looms on the schedule for both teams but a loss would derail the season early. West Virginia has wins against Virginia Tech and Iowa State. TCU just lost Gary Patterson but sometimes a coaching change can surprise. Penn State is ranked in the AP poll and not the Playoffs, Wisconsin is ranked in the Playoffs and not the AP poll and both could lose on the road to struggling but feisty Maryland and Rutgers respectively. Florida State has been trying to gather the pieces and rally for a bowl game. Beating a good NC State team at home would be an excellent win. The best game on paper is Arkansas coming off a bye to host Mississippi State. The Bulldogs aren’t in the AP poll but somehow made the Playoff rankings all the way up at #17. They have nice wins against NC state, Texas A&M, and Kentucky but bad losses against Memphis and LSU. Arkansas has a good wins against Texas A&M, possibly Texas and the losses aren’t bad against Georgia, Auburn and one-point to Ole Miss. It should be a fun, high scoring affair.
Evening Slate
Fresh Squeezed
7:00 – Tennessee (4-4) @ #18 Kentucky (6-2) – ESPN2
The Vols have lost to Ole Miss and Alabama back-to-back weeks but they look better under QB Hendon Hooker who currently has a 17-2 Td-Int ratio and 68.7% completion percentage against stiff competition. The Wildcat followed up wins over Florida and LSU with back-to-back losses to Georgia and Mississippi State. This is the toughest game left on the slate with Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, and Louisville remaining. The offense for Kentucky hasn’t been as potent, albeit against good defenses, and the Vols are starting to look like the more balanced squad. This will be an entertaining game.
Pick: Tennessee 34-27
7:30 – #4 Oregon (7-1) @ Washington (4-4) – ABC
The Huskies haven’t exactly….improved but they’ve won 21-16 over Arizona and 20-13 over Stanford in back-to-back weeks. The run game put up 229 rushing yards last week…after putting up 88 the week before. Oregon’s last three weeks look like this: survived 24-17 against horrible Cal at home, 34-31 win over a solid UCLA team on the road, 52-29 smashing of crummy Colorado. Standing at #3 in the playoff rankings the inconsistency could eliminate them here. Washington’s run defense is giving up 178ypg and that plays to the Ducks strength rolling up over 200ypg on the ground. Every game will be upset watch for the Ducks with Washington State, @Utah, and Oregon State on the schedule but the battle starts here.
Pick: Oregon 35-20
Lower Grove
6:00 – Coastal Carolina (7-1) @ Georgia Southern (2-6) – ESPN+
6:00 – Marshall (5-3) @ Florida Atlantic (5-3) – TBD
7:00 – LSU (4-4) @ #2 Alabama (7-1) – ESPN
7:00 – Boise State (4-4) @ #23 Fresno State (7-2) – CBSSN
7:00 – #22 Iowa (6-2) @ Northwestern (3-5) – TBD
7:30 – Indiana (2-6) #7 Michigan (7-1) – FOX
7:30 – Houston (7-1) @ South Florida (2-6) – ESPNU
7:30 – Florida (4-4) @ South Carolina (4-4) – SECN
7:30 – Clemson (5-3) @ Louisville (4-4) – ACCN
7:30 – Texas (4-4) @ Iowa State (5-3) – FS1
LSU heading to Alabama would be a massive game most seasons, but the Tigers have lost 3 of 4 and will struggle to stop the Tide. Iowa snuck in the back in of the playoff ranks and should survive against a struggling Northwestern team. The Playoff committee has the Wolverines at #7 in the rankings, too high for my taste and Indiana isn’t going to roll over. One more loss and the Hoosiers won’t make a bowl game. They lost 38-35 to Maryland last week with Freshman Donaven McCulley (the 3rd stringer) under center and are still interesting with a new face making plays. Fresno State is one of the few non-power 5 that gained the playoff committees respect and made the rankings. They’re fun to watch and the front runners for the Mountain West.
Anthony Richardson is concussed and probably out against South Carolina making that game much less interesting. Clemson/Louisville and Texas/Iowa State are two of the more entertaining contests between power-5 teams with no major stakes. Coastal Carolina and Houston are ranked in the AP poll but not the Playoff rankings. Both will be favored against inferior foes. Marshall and FAU battle at the top of the C-USA East.
Late Night – Great Night! Slate
10:00 – San Jose State (5-4) @ Nevada (6-2) – FS2
10:15 – #16 UTSA (8-0) @ UTEP (6-2) – ESPN2
10:30 – USC (4-4) @ Arizona State (5-3) – ESPN
11:00 – San Diego State (7-1) @ Hawaii (4-5) – FS1
UTSA and UTEP play a monster game for C-USA West. The Miners will have to keep up with the Roadrunners and QB Frank Harris (1,793 yrds, 16-3 Td-Int, 68.6%, 270 rush/rds, 2 rush/rds) and RB Sincere McCormick (891 yds, 4.7 avg, 9 tds). If UTSA wins here, they’ll be favored to win out and finish the season 13-0. The Mountain West features Nevada hosting SJS and SDSU heading to Hawaii to try and keep a foot in the door for the Conference race if Fresno trips up. All three squads play in the West division and are arguably the top 3 teams in the Conference. Nevada and SDSU play next week. USC lost future NFL WR Drake Johnson for the season but should see freshman QB Jaxson Dart get playing time. Arizona State has fallen apart losing to Utah, taking a bye, then losing to Washington State who just fired most of its staff. It’s no longer a matchup between two top ranked teams, but these two are always fun when they tango.
