-Originally published 12/12/20-
We didn’t have any major upsets in Week 14 and the top seven teams are the same again. TCU moved above .500 with a big 29-22 win over #15 Oklahoma State. When Oklahoma and Iowa State clash for the Big 12 Championship in two weeks, the winner will be the only team in the Conference that doesn’t’ have at least three losses. Indiana grabbed a monster win 14-6 over Wisconsin in a defensive battle. Backup QB Jack Tuttle (20/34, 130 yds, 2 Td) isn’t Michael Penix Jr but he’s capable of guiding what is showing to be a good Hoosier squad.
The non-Power 5 teams didn’t remain unscathed. #25 Louisiana beat Appalachian State 24-21 to move to 9-1, #24 Tulsa’s defense blanketed Navy 19-6, and #13 BYU and #18 Coastal Carolina but on an excellent show with CC surviving 22-17. It’s unfortunate that it’ll be still be viewed by many as a battle between two teams that wouldn’t stand a chance against Power 5 competition. I still think both would beat all but a dozen teams in the country. #21 Marshall took a massive blow getting shut out by lowly Rice 20-0. Starting QB Grant Well threw 5 interceptions.
The Pac 12 is having a rough time on their shortened schedule as well. A late loss in the Civil War to Oregon State last week knocked #23 Oregon from the unbeaten and followed that up with a 21-17 loss to California. #22 Washington was upset by Stanford leaving only Colorado and USC undefeated. Arizona State played their 2nd game of the season losing to USC and UCLA almost a month apart.
Michigan/#4 Ohio State and Purdue/ #12 Indiana have been cancelled in the Big 10. Cincinnati/Tulsa has been cancelled but they’ll meet for the AAC conference Championship next week. #5 Texas A&M and Mississippi has been postponed.
Friday, December 11th
Utah (1-2) @ #21 Colorado (4-0) – 9:30pm, FS1
Pick: Colorado
Colorado’s wins over UCLA, Stanford, San Diego State and Arizona aren’t exciting. Utah has losses to respectable USC and Washington and a win over Oregon State last week. Utah has Washington down big but allowed a 21 point comeback to take the loss. I’ve gotten a look at over 100 of the 130 D1 teams but Colorado is honestly one of the only Power 5 teams I haven’t. Utah has looked better than their record so I expect this game to be close either way but Colorado looks to be a hollow 4-0.
Saturday, December 12th – Early Slate
#1 Alabama (9-0) @ Arkansas (3-6) – Noon, ESPN
Pick: Alabama
#9 Georgia (6-2) @ #25 Missouri (5-3) – Noon, SECN
Pick: Georgia
#11 Oklahoma (7-2) @ West Virginia (5-4) – Noon, ABC
Pick: Oklahoma
Illinois (2-4) @ #14 Northwestern (5-1) – Noon, ESPN2
Pick: Northwestern
Arkansas looked good at the beginning of the year but they’ve fallen off. Alabama is currently the best team in the country and Mac Jones has played himself in the Heisman conversation. Missouri has somehow moved to 5-3 by mowing down the weak SEC members. The combined record of their opponents is 12-33. It’s stunning they’re ranked 25th. Georgia has looked better with J.T. Barrett at QB but they are not top-10 quality. They were spanked by Florida and Alabama and have one win over a team over a winning record (5-4 Auburn) and they’ve struggled against inferior opponents.
I thought for sure West Virginia’s defense would restrict Iowa State’s offense last week and allow the Mountaineers to pull an upset. They were slaughtered 42-6. Oklahoma tiptoed past Baylor 27-14 last week but they’ve hammered their past three opponents and have won five straight dating back to the Red River rivalry. They were due for a tough outing. WV could struggle to move the ball again in what could be lower scoring contest. Illinois is just bad, it’s cool they piled on to Nebraska last week but Fighting Lovie Smith’s will be looking for a new coach in 2022 (we’ll forgive the pandemic).
Saturday, December 12th – Mid-Afternoon Slate
#13 Coastal Carolina (10-0) @ Troy (5-5) – 3:00pm, ESPN+
Pick: Costal Carolina
#17 North Carolina (7-3) @ #10 Miami (8-1) – 3:30pm, ABC
Pick: Miami
Wisconsin (2-2) @ #16 Iowa (5-2) – 3:30pm
Pick: Iowa
Coast Carolina knocked off BYU in a stellar defensive battle that’ll push them closer to a New Year’s Six bowl. The schedule (unbelievably) has some good wins this season with Louisiana, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and BYU on the schedule. Grayson McCall is tied with the 4th highest passing grade college football per Pro Football Focus (PFF) with Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler, behind only Zach Wilson (BYU), Mac Jones (Alabama), and Kyle Trask (Florida).
Miami’s D’Eriq King and North Carolina’s Sam Howell are the 11th and 5th highest graded QB’s per PFF. Miami took a break last weekend and hammered Western Carolina 49-9 after the disappointing 31-17 loss to Notre Dame. The Hurricanes are allowing 22 ppg, tied for 17th in sacks (26), and shutout Duke 48-0 last week as they try to get the defense together. North Carolina is still 5th (534.5 ypg) nationally in offense (41.1 ppg) but has a defense that gives up over 400 yards per game, although they’re ranked 10 in sacks (30). This could be a high scoring affair and Miami could make the stops needed to win, but I think UNC’s offense is going to be too much.
Iowa tied for 16th in interceptions (10) and they field a top-20 defense allowing 325.6 yards and 17.3 ppg. Wisconsin #1 rush defense (72.3 ypg) and only allowing 12.3 ppg and they’re allowing the 2nd lowest completion percentage to opposing QB’s (50.4%). They’re the only team that hasn’t given up a rushing touchdown this season. They’re managed to squander low scoring games to Northwestern 17-7 and Indiana 14-6. Wisconsin will be in trouble again this week.
Saturday, December 12th – Saturday Night
LSU (3-5) @ #6 Florida (8-1) – 7:00pm, ESPN
Pick: Florida
#22 Oklahoma State (6-3) @ Baylor (2-6) – 7:00pm, ESPNU
Pick: Oklahoma State
#15 USC (4-0) @ UCLA (3-2) – 7:30pm, ABC
Pick: USC
San Diego State (4-3) @ #18 BYU (9-1) – 10:00pm, ESPN2
Pick: BYU
The night slate isn’t very exciting. Oklahoma State offense has been an issue all season and they’ve fallen back to the middle-of-pack in the Big 12. Chubba Hubbard missed his 2nd game with a leg injury but junior Dezmon Jackson filled in with 29 carries for 188 yards (4.1 avg) and a touchdown. Baylor has three losses by less than a touchdown and the biggest loss was by 13 last week to a really good Oklahoma team 27-14. The Bear should keep it close with Cowboys and threaten an upset.
Florida will munch on the Tigers. Junior QB Myles Brennan has quietly performed like a top-15 quarterback this season but we probably won’t see him again after a torn abdomen. He missed the blowout against the Tide. The Showdown for LA will be an excellent battle between Kedon Slovis and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Slovis (1,257 yds, 10 Td, 2 Int, 72% Comp) hasn’t performed well this season but he’s due for a big game. Dorian TR (691 yds, 8, 2 Int, 290 rush/yds, 3 rush/tds) has had a hell of a time at UCLA but they’re above .500 for the first time since Chip Kelly took over. This should be the most competitive game of the night.
BYU added San Diego to the slate but SDS isn’t quite the quality they usually are. The Aztecs have lost to San Jose State and Nevada, the two best teams in the Mountain West, and undefeated Colorado. They’ve beaten up weaker completion but BYU should roll them up after a close quarter or so.