-Originally published 9/27/20-
The SEC has started play and now the BIG 10, Pac 12, MAC, and Mountain West all have plans in place to join the party. The new top-25 AP and coaches poll dropped with controversy. Some voters chose to add the Big 10 and Pac 12 to the rankings despite the face they won’t play for over a month yet and some didn’t, really discombobulating the polls. Now let’s back it up a moment, we’ve seen a crazy Saturday with two top-six teams losing and several others that were in serious danger. Let’s take a quick look back at teams that have already stated after an interesting week 3.
The SEC is very very…..
Hard to figure out. Coivd has disrupted practices, schedules, spring games, but these teams have been practicing and had on extra month to figure things out with the delayed start of the season. I’m not sure that explains some of the strange games we had on Saturday. The SEC came into the week with six teams in the top-10 (#2 Alabama, #4 Georgia, #5 Florida, #6 LSU, #8 Auburn, #10 Texas A&M) and eight total (#16 Tennessee, #23 Kentucky) in the top-25. Only one game was between two ranked opponents (#23 Kentucky and #8 Auburn) but only Alabama and Florida had games in-hand wire-to-wire. Florida’s offense behind Kyle Trask (30/42, 416 Yds, 6 Tds) and Kyle Pitts (8 Rec, 170 Yds, 4 Tds) looks elite. Trask should have the Gators in the hunt for their first playoff spot and shot at a title since the Tebow days. On the opposite sideline, Line Kiffin in his debut as Mississippi’s coach saw sophomore Matt Corral (22/31, 395 Yds, 3 Tds, 1 Int, 50 Rush/Yds) and top target Elijah Moore (10 Rec, 227 Yds) operate what looks like a promising offense to watch in the 51-35 loss to the Gators.
LSU reloaded the entire team after the last NFL exodus and unfortunately for the Tigers, Mike Leach and K.J. Costello (36/60, 623 Yds, 5 Tds, 2 Ints) didn’t need a warm-up period for the new offense/QB to warm up in a 44-34 upset. LSU’s defense managed five sacks, 7 TFL, and forced 4 turnovers. Offensively LSU was 5-17 converting on 3rd down. MSU was 8-16 on 3rd down, logged 7 sacks, 7 TFL and forced two turnovers. What does this mean? Does LSU just need more time for the offense to jell? (and regroup in the secondary sweet baby Jesus) Can MSU play good enough defense going forward to become a contender?
Texas A&M looked bad beating Vanderbilt 17-12, Tennessee looked unimpressive beating South Carolina 31-27 and were lucky they jumped on a blocked kick return to prevent SC from having a late possession to possibly win the game. Georgia went from a wealth of QB options (Jamie Newman-Opt out, JT Daniels-Not Active-Injury, D’Wan Mathis-Benched) to falling back on former walk on Stetson Bennett to put away an Arkansas Razorback team that went 2-10 last season. Fortunately, the Bulldogs defense looks good and the team should pull together if the QB situation gets sorted.
Kentucky wouldn’t have been ranked if all teams were playing and probably won’t be ranked after losing to Auburn 29-13, but the Wildcats have a defense that’ll allow them to keep games competitive. With SEC teams playing 10 game conference schedules we won’t see some teams pad their records and hit double-digit win totals that we’re accustomed too. That being said, there are teams that really need to figure things out to push for the 8-9 win mark this season and they’re won’t be any non-conference cupcake and few in-conference cupcake games to make mistakes. We’ll definitely have a team or two that is surprising competitive and a couple that’ll disappoint in the SEC.
Bryce Young will be given every opportunity to shine
Alabama played with its food once the end result was definite. Junior QB Mac Jones (18/24, 249 Yds, 2 Tds) was pulled with a 35-6 lead over Missouri to give Bryce Young most of the 4th quarter to go for a test run. Mac Jones follows in the mold of Alabama greats AJ McCarron, Greg McElroy and John Parker Wilson, but doesn’t have the special mobile skills that Saban has grown to appreciate like Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, and now Bryce Young. The True freshman is a duel threat and was getting attention back in middle school. The Starters on offense stayed in so young could get reps with the offensive line and wide receivers. He went 5/8 for 58 yards and had 2 yards on the ground. He fumbled had trouble feeling out pressure. Saban was active in interacting with Young on the sidelines and will give Young every opportunity to get on the field in garbage time, even if he isn’t ready to grab the starting job this year. If he starts to show more control of the offense and Mac Jones struggles in the slightest, it’ll be Bryce’s show to run.
Big 12, Big 2, Big…Who?
The Big 12 figured to come down to the Red River Rivalry game between Oklahoma and Texas for the Big 12 title with the rest of the league a couple steps below the top two powers. That might not be the case. Oklahoma was devastated by Kansas State for the 2nd year in a row, 38-35. Sophomore QB Spencer Rattle threw 3 interceptions for the Sooners and the defense that looked much better in 2019, gave up 31 points in the 2nd half. Oklahoma has more yards (517-400), were better on 3rd down (7/12-2/11), had fewer penalties (10-75 Yds-13-108 Yds), but lost the turn over battle (4-0) and couldn’t stop KSU late.
Texas found itself down 15 with three minutes to go against Texas Tech. According to ESPN’s Win Probability statistics (which is showing to be less and less effective as time goes on) showed the Red Raiders had a 99.8% win probability rate at that point. Texas rallied to score two touchdowns and made a two point conversion to tie and win in OT. Had Texas lost, Baylor (2-0) and Texas Tech (2-0) would have been tied atop Big-12 standings with Baylor (1-0) the only other undefeated in this early (wacky) season. Without digging too deep into the numbers an eye test tells us that the Big 12 is going to come down to the most potent offense and turnovers. The Big 12 is often criticized for its defense, but in covid times where tackling seems to be suffering the defense looks even worse. It wouldn’t be crazy to see an unexpected team or teams like Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa State or West Virginia with two losses in the Big 12 championship.
Clemson has Playoff Roadblocks
Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Pittsburg, and now Virginia Tech all look legit in the ACC. Notre Dame is still a factor but struggled against Duke 27-13 and hammered inferior South Florida 52-0. The run game looks solid behind C’Bo Flemister (127 Yds, 1 TD), Chris Tyree (85 Yds, 1 TD), and Kyren Williams (174 Yds, 2 TD), but senior QB Ian Book hasn’t looked great (406 Yds, 1 Td, 1 Int, 62% Comp, 3 Rush/Td). Louisville still has the offense to make noise but needs to figure out the defensive side of the ball. The Cards sit at 1-2 after Miami and Pitt losses.
North Carolina has only played Syracuse due to covid cancelling games and looked sluggish in pulling out a 31-6 victory. The Tar Heels entered the season as the top threat to Clemson with QB Sam Howell returning after winning ACC playing of the year as a true freshman and I’m excited to see them play again. D’Eriq King has Miami fired up and looking explosive. After a slow 31-14 UAB win, Miami won 47-34 over Louisville and destroyed rival Florida State 52-10. King has 893 yards of total offense and 7 total touchdowns. Pittsburg’s defense has logged 17 sacks, 6 Interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries in three wins while holding opponents to 10 points-per-game. The offense isn’t top explosive, but the defense will keep them in games. Virginia Tech finally got to play after numerous postponements and crushed NC State in its opener. Ironically VT returns more starters than anyone in the ACC, but had over a dozen players held out due to covid concerns, including its starting QB, but still managed a blowout victory. That bodes well for when the full roster returns.
Clemson lucked out not getting Louisville or North Caroline on the regular season schedule unless they meet in the ACC championship game. Clemson’s big games: 10/10 Miami, 11/7 @ Notre Dame, 11/28 @ Pittsburg, and 12/5 @ Virginia Tech are all dates College Football fans should have circle on their calendars if the great ACC play of these teams continues.
Small Time Success
BYU has redone their entire schedule several times, but they’re 2-0 and a threat to anyone else the end up playing. BYU ended up slipping from #18 to #22 despite destroying Troy because of the additions of the Big 10 and Big 12 to the Top-25 poll. The schedule is too soft for the playoffs, but QB Zac Wilson is completing 78% of his passes and the run game has logged just under 500 yards on the ground through two games. The defense has only allowed 10 points in a 55-3 win over Navy and 48-7 victory over Troy.
Out of the AAC, Central Florida behind Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is ranked #11 (2-0), Cincinnati is #15 (2-0) and Memphis (1-0) is #25. The trio will be exciting to watch going forward and look every part three teams that’ll be in the top-25 all season fighting for the ACC crown and probable New Year’s day bowl appearance. From the Sun Belt, Louisiana moved fell out of the rankings with new team additions, but was ranked 3-0 and #19 entering last week. They’re not good offensively and will probably lose to Appalachian State in a couple weeks. Marshall out of Conference USA has looked excellent behind freshman quarterback Grant Wells.
