-Originally published 9/25/20-
Week 2 Picks: 7-1
Week 3 Picks: 7-2 (North Carolina/Charlotte post-phoned)
Cumulative: 14-3
The SEC joins the party this week and we have match-ups that could be interesting. Florida/Ole Miss, Kentucky/Auburn, and Mississippi State/LSU could all be games on upset watch. We’ll get some competitive games in Louisville/Pittsburg, Army/Cincinnati, West Virginia/Oklahoma State, Florida State/Miami, and Troy/BYU. D’Eriq Kin of Miami is must-watch television, but keep an eye on QB Jarret Doege in the West Virginia game. He could be an underrated sneaky good talent in the Big 12.
Kansas State (0-1) @ #3 Oklahoma (1-0) – Noon, FOX
Spencer Rattler threw went 14-17 for 290 yards and 4 TD in routing a cupcake team last week before hitting the bench. He’ll get another chance to show off his laser arm against a conference opponent that has fallen off a cliff competitively. Kansas State fell 35-31 to Arkansas State.
Kansas State A Little Oklahoma A Lot
#5 Florida (0-0) @ Ole Miss (0-0) – Noon, ESPN
Kyle Trask is the mail reason the Gators are view so highly this season. The senior QB threw for 2,941 yards, 25 touchdowns and 7 interceptions last season and completed 66% of his pass against SEC defenses. Trask grabbed the job from the injured Feleipe Franks and never let go. Florida suffered a touchdown loss to Georgia and a two score loss at LSU last season in route to 11-2. They lost key playmakers on offense and defense, but this is the best quarterback the Gators have had since Tim Tebow in 2009. Lane Kiffin will debut as the head coach for Ole Miss. The Rebels were quietly 9th in the nation in rush yards last season. QB John Plumlee led the SEC with 113 rushing yards per-game in his freshman season. Both the offense and defense return good pieces. It could be closer than most analysts think early, but Florida should win here.
Florida 42 Ole Miss 17
#23 Kentucky (0-0) @ #8 Auburn (0-0) – Noon, SECN
True sophomore QB Bo Mix (2,542 Yds, 16 Td, 6 Ints, 313 Rush/Yds, 7 Rush/Tds) is one of only a handful of Auburn starters returning on either side of the ball. Nix struggled against stronger competition and could struggle against Kentucky’s defense. Top receiver Seth Willams (59 Rec, 830 Yds, 8 Tds) returns. Kentucky returns most of its offense, but will be leaning on the powerful run game and defense while breaking in a new starting QB. This game could be closer than Kentucky will be given credit for.
Kentucky 17 Auburn 27
#13 UCF (1-0) @ East Carolina (0-0) – Noon, ABC
UCF QB Dillion Gabriel threw for over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns and top receiver Marion Williams had 10 grabs for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 49-21 rout of a decent up-and-coming Georgia Tech team last weekend. They’ll crush the lousy Pirates.
UCF: A lot East Carolina: A little
Georgia Southern (1-0) @ #19 Louisiana (2-0) – Noon, ESPN2
Louisiana pulled out a massive victory thanks to two kick returns against Iowa State and survived George State last week. The team is offensively challenged and its run in the top-25 could come to an end against Appalachian State 10/7. Louisiana won’t lose against this Georgia Sothern team that struggled to beat Campbell 27-26 last weekend.
Georgia Southern 10 Louisiana 24
#24 Louisville (1-1) @ #21 Pittsburgh (2-0) – Noon, ACCN
Louisville was spectacular offensively last week with QB Malik Cunningham passing for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, top receivers Tutu Atwell (8 Rec, 144 Yds, 2 Tds) and Dez Fitzpatrick (7 Rec, 74 Yds) had big days and RB Javian Hawkins had 164 yards and a touchdown. The defense couldn’t stop the Hurricanes and struggled against Western Kentucky in the opener. Pittsburgh has played aweful opponents in Austin Peay and Syracuse, but the offense behind QB Kenny Pickett looks promising. The defense looks stout and should put pressure on Cunningham having logged 10 sacks already this season. This game should be really competitive; I’m going with the better offense.
Louisville 31 Pittsburgh 27
Mississippi State (0-0) @ #6 LSU (0-0) – 3:30pm, CBS
Mike Leach’s debut in Starksville should be awesome. Stanford transfer K.J. Costello is joining Leach from the west coast to run the air raid offense and he was reasonably proficient his time with the dancing trees. I don’t think LSU is ranked way too high for a team the lost all the talent they did last season. Passing coordinator Joe Brady is gone, the roster will only be returning a handful of starters, top-expected returnee WR Ja’marr Chase opted out and Ed Orgeron, quite frankly, has to prove he’s a reliable good coach. If this turns sloppy (missed tackles, poor line offensive/defensive line play, poor coverage) and turns into backyard throw-and-catch, its possible MSU pulls an upset. I’ll stick with LSU and its potential talent while Leach installs his offense.
Mississippi State 31 LSU 38
#8 Texas (1-0) @ Texas Tech (1-0) – 3:30, FOX
Texas rolling UTEP doesn’t tell us much but QB Sam Ehlinger (426 Yds, 5 Tds, 75% Comp) looked steller. The defense returns almost all its starters. Texas Tech has its next top QB in Alan Bowman (430 Yds, 2 TD, 1 Int, 73% Comp), but against will suffer their bumps as they narrowly escaped Houston Baptist 35-33 last weekend.
Texas 45 Texas Tech 21
#22 Army (2-0) @ #14 Cincinnati (1-0) – 3:30pm, ESPN
Army has looked great controlling the clock and rushing for just shy of 800 yards through two games this season. Cincinnati opened against cupcake Austin Peay last week and quite the Bearcars defense didn’t look as good as expected in a 55-20 win. QB Desmond Ridder was efficient (13-19, 196 yds, 2 Tds, 57 yds rushing) before getting benched after the game was out of reach. The Bearcats went for 276 yards on the ground. This should be a close game with the question being, “Can Army throw if they are behind?” I think they have the defense to complement the run game and pull a surprise on the Bearcats.
Army 24 Cincinnati 17
West Virginia (1-0) @ #15 Oklahoma State (1-0) – 3:30pm, ABC
OKS struggled to get going last week after QB Spencer Sanders was injured and he’s questionable for this game. West Virginia looked good smashing Eastern Kentucky. Stud RB Chuba Hubbard could get 40 carries and make it irrelevant whether Sanders plays or not but QB Jarret Doege (19-25, 228 Yds, 3 Tds) for WV looks like the real deal. The Mountaineer’s also rushed for 329 yards. This is a tough call, but I’m going with West Virginia to pull the upset. If Sanders was fully heathy I would lean towards OSU.
West Virginia 35 Oklahoma State 24
#4 Georgia (0-0) @ Arkansas (0-0) – 4pm, SECN
Arkansas was miserable last season and won’t be much better this season outside of Florida QB transfer Feleipe Franks. Georgia is loaded for another playoff and will start either USC transfer JT Daniels or a slew of other options at QB. Most of the stellar defense returns.
Georgia: A lot Arkansas: A little
#2 Alabama (0-0) @ Missouri (0-0) – 7pm, ESPN
Alabama returns most of the offense, but Mac Jones will be replacing Tua. Jones will certainly be decent but whether or not he’ll be a game changer like Tua or Jalen Hurts were is probably not the case. Waiting in the wings is true freshman QB Bryce Young, who was getting recruiting offers in middle school. Young will certainly get playing time against Missouri if this turns into a rout and Saban will try to give him opportunities throughout the year. Missouri….could start four different guys at QB.
Alabama: A lot Missouri: A little
Vanderbilt (0-0) @ #10 Texas A&M – 7:30pm, SECN ALT
Texas A&M is in position to make some noise this season. The Aggies schedule was brutal last season with games against Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia and LSU with losses to each. QB Kellen Mond (2,897 Yds, 20 Td, 9 Ins, 500 Rush/Yds, 8 Rush/Tds) is leading the charge and backfield-mate Isaiah Spiller (946 Yds, 10 Tds) returns. The offensive line mostly returns as dos most of the defense.
Vanderbilt 10 Texas A&M 42
Florida St (0-1) @ #12 Miami (2-0) – 7:30pm, ABC
Florida State doesn’t look good and managed to blow its opener against Georgia Tech after leading 10-0 at half. There are future NFL players on defense but it struggled at times and the offense looks anemic. Miami got on track against a good Louisville team last weekend after a hum-ho show against UAB nd looks ready to run over the ACC. D’Eriq King (469 Yds, 4 Tds, 92 rush/yds, 1 rush/td-2020) will look to crush his new in-state rival.
Florida St 17 Miami 35
#16 Tennessee (0-0) @ South Carolina (0-0) – 7:30pm, SECN
Tennessee is getting early preseason hype (as they do every year) but will be returning most of its offense which seems promising. The losses came with WR Jauan Jennings and Marquez Calaway, two big playmakers for the team. Returning QB Jarrett Guarantano lost his starting job at one point last year and the defense that clamped down last season lost key pieces that contributed to that effort….so perhaps they’re over ranked again? The Gamecocks were 4-8 last season and will be replacing the quarterback positon and starter all over the board.
Tennessee 34 South Carolina 17
NC State (1-0) @ #20 Virginia Tech (0-0) – 8pm, ACCN
Virginia Tech return almost all its starters on both sides of the ball from a team that stumbled to 8-5 last season. The defense could be lights only allowing scores on 73% of red zone trips while the offense converted on 94% of red zone trips. NC State crashed to 4-8 last season and struggled on both sides of the ball, especially offensively. Most offensive pieces return, but this team will have to show dramatic improvements to be threatening.
NC State 10 Virginia Tech 38
Troy (1-0) @ #18 BYU (1-0) – 10:15, ESPN
BYU looked excellent smoking Navy 55-3. BYU’s defense logged 5 sacks, the offense rushed for over 300 yards and QB Zack Wilson completed 72% of his passes. Troy is always underrated and equally dominant on both sides of the ball against Middle Tennessee in their opener. This should be an excellent last night (east coast time) game.
Troy: 24 BYU: 35