What do the Bucks, Clippers, Lakers, Suns, and Warriors all have in common? Future Hall of Famers, historically expensive payrolls, and no chance to win a Championship. 2023 obviously hasn’t been kind to several coalitions of top league talent. Poor roster construction and loading up top stars for top dollar hasn’t been productive in 2023 and could be detrimental to winning in 2024.
The new salary cap rules beginning 2024-25 are going to be more punishing to teams exceeding the salary cap. Several benefits constrict if over the hard cap: no mid-level exemption contract, clamping down on player trades, and draft punishment for repeat offenders. The new rules essentially trap an expensive team in the roster as constructed by constraining any other movement with a “prove you can win with this expensive roster” attitude. The mid-level exemption isn’t used by all teams every season but Dante Exum (Dallas), Reggie Jackson (Denver), Gabe Vincent (LAL), and Donte DiVincenzo (NYK) were top signees last season. Player trades have to be 100% salary matches and multiple salaries cannot be combined in a trade. Basically, they’ll have to be one-for-ones which is difficult. In addition, teams can’t sign “buy-out” players that are often used to supplant championship runs among a mix of other minor moves that are paralyzing when all layered together.
A 19-4 record to close out 2023 was the highlight of Milwaukee’s season. The Bucks are 10-13 in the Playoffs since the 21 Title and have lost back-to-back 1st round series. Huge contracts with Khris Middleton, Jure Holiday, and Brook Lopez around $80 million+ and Giannis on the Supermax extension at over 30% of the total cap at $45 million+ have limited roster moves the past few years. The Bucks are a team that that’s aging, had bad injury luck, and possibly just outclassed. Giannis took a tumble in Game 1 last season against Miami in round 1 and injured his back. He missed two games and the Bucks lost the series 4-1. Giannis still managed 42 minutes and a massive 38-20 Game 5 output in the series loss and the Heat made a Finals run as the #8 seed. Both a victims of injury to their top impact player on both sides of the ball and a healthy, well coached Heat roster, the Bucks still felt pressure to make moves last offseason. Breaking up the core quartet to bring in Dame Lillard looking for a new home was an interesting choice. It’s certainly a fun experiment to see in the postseason. Dame brought in more firepower (Giannis was still the Bucks leading scorer in 54 of 65 games that Dame & Giannis played together) to work off Giannis and Middleton but the defensive issues were clear in the regular season. The Bucks haven’t been an elite defensive team despite Giannis, Holiday, and Lopez being top performers on that end this decade and they slipped to the back third of the league last season. Moving off a top defensive guard in Jrue for literally one of the very worst guards defensively in the league had immediate impact. With Dame, Jrue, Khris, Brook all over 32 years old at the time of the trade the team also didn’t get any younger. With Giannis, Dame, Khris banged up during the playoff series loss this season to the Pacers, maybe we were never going to see a healthy team made a 6-week Championship run.
Going into year 5 of Giannis, Middleton, and Lopez with Giannis about to join the 30 club, returning the same core lineup with Dame Lillard for year 2 is probable due to salary cap constraints. It’s possible to find a trade for 35-year-old Brook Lopez with a maneuverable contract at $23 million next season. Lopez evolved from a 20-10 post scorer in the 2010’s to a 3&D stretch five prototype that teams now desire and can place next to other bigs in lineups without congesting the paint offensively. Problem is…that player partners great with Giannis. So just like the Holiday for Lillard move can be picked apart, so could a move off of Lopez depending on what kind of player replaces his role. Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton have been solid offensive contributors but their contracts are up and both will be 30+ when next season starts off. The best option for talent upgrades come from young guys simply performing at a higher level. Only three young bodies are under contract for next season. Marjon Beauchamp at 6’7 shoots 48% and 40% from three with defensive promise. Rookie AJ Green is a 6’4 guard that shoots 41.9% from three. Andre Jackson Jr at 6’6 is a better size and shoots 50% and 37% from three. None have a great sample size to draw from averaging less than 13mpg and none being part of the current rotation.
Alright, let’s start with the Clippers here: James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul, Lebron James, the eight main culprits that exploded the “player movement” era for team hopping. The first four on the list are currently collected on this roster. At this point in the mid-30’s the group is expensive, and either struggling to stay healthy (Kawhi-32) or have a decreasing talent level (Westbrook-35, Harden-34). When healthier during the regular season the Clippers ripped off a 26-3 during their brightest patch. Kawhi Leonard played 68 games, the most since the 2016/17 season, but missed the last 8 of the regular season and 4 more in the playoffs against the Mavericks. He hasn’t been a healthy participant in the post-season since the 2019 Toronto Raptors Championship season. The Klaw is actually the youngest of the group at 32 and still highly effective on both sides of the ball when on the court. Paul George (34) played the most games since his OKC days in 2017/18. PG is the steadiest and healthiest member of the vets with both Harden and Westbrook seeing slippage this season, even taking into account role changes for both fitting into new Clippers roles. Harden’s $40 million contract is up, but being cash-strapped means that isn’t money now available for the Clippers to spend. PG has a player option he can exercise next season for $48 million. Kawhi for $50 million per year for THREE more seasons. Normal Powell is signed for $19 million the next two years and Ivica Zubac, PJ Tucker, and Terance Mann for over $11 million each next season. Even with James Harden walking, the team is over $103 million past the cap right this moment.
Owner Steve Ballmer is spending $2 billion on a new area in 2024 and he isn’t going to want a poor product on the court. Realistically, major changes probably aren’t on the way next season that will raise the ceiling. A healthy Kawhi would make this team more competitive without major changes.
LA shuffled the deck around Lebron and Anthony Davis last offseason to provide additional defensive support. Rui Hachimura was often in the starting lineup and provided minor impact on both sides of the ball. Gabe Vincent was injured most of the season. Cam Reddish struggled to stay in rotation with his poor shooting. Taurean Prince was quite productive and one of the more reliable three point shooters. Jaxson Hayes was a fine backup to AD. Two members that were added to the starting lineup last season didn’t add much on defense. De’Angelo Russell shot a career-high 41.5% from 3 but disappeared in the playoffs shooting 31.8% from 3 and under 40% from the field. Austin Reeves took a slight step back in shooting percentage after increasing his volume significantly. Overall, the group around Lebron and AD was just that, fine. Despite unusual health for the top two starts the Lakers found themselves in the play-in. LA probably wasn’t that far behind the top half of the Western conference. But they were indeed, behind.
Now the future is complicated. Lebron is sitting on a $51 million player-option at age 40 while waiting to see where his son is drafted. Davis has two years in excess of $54 million per plus a player-option for almost $63 million during his age 34 2027-28 year. Lebron will probably be retired before then and AD might not pick up the option (for better or worse) if he doesn’t like the future of LA and has a wondering eye.
The Phoenix Suns are fucked. Putting huge trade packages together for Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal have drained draft picks and roster depth. Massive contacts for KD, Beal and Booker each account for 35% or more of the team’s total cap. If you maths that out, it’s over 100% of the salary cap. The trio played only forty games together this season and went 0-4 in the playoffs. Another $30 million for Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen just to round out a starting five pushes this team towards the new 2nd apron penalties as well. All five contracts are on the books for at least another two seasons. The Suns won’t have an untouched 1st round pick the rest of the decade with 1sts either traded away or pick swaps in place to steal any valuable positioning. The starting five of Booker/Beal/Allen/Duran/Nurkic seems powerful when they’re on the court but there isn’t much flexibility. Nurkic can get played off the floor defensively, last season showed that a true point guard would be helpful, Allen’s consistency is a question mark and another impactful defensive guard would be great. The Suns are probably running a similar roster back next season hoping for different results.
Golden State committed to keeping the Curry, Klay, Green core together heading into the 2020’s with lucrative contracts. All three are now well into their 30’s. Klay hasn’t been the same since his 2019 injury on either side of the ball. Draymond’s shooting has collapsed during the same time period and his temperament receives more news than real court impact. That being said, his true impact is only seen by folks that actually watch him play basketball and not social media clip viewers, box score hawks, and even “prestigious” talking heads spewing unconscionable goo that’s absorbed by casual fans (I’m looking at the trash you put on TV ESPN). Draymond organizes the team on the court. He’s still a solid on-ball defender and alert off-ball defender jumping passing lanes and manipulating space/coverage on the court. His depleting shooting is an issue, although he shot the 3 better in 2023, but anyone trying to explain his team value by rattling off his box score stat averages is telling on themselves. Chris Paul was a fine contributor last season. Really. He’s just injury prone, turning 40 and getting paid $30 million next season. Andrew Wiggins peak performance aligned with the 2021 title, the only playoff appearance by the Warriors in the past four seasons. Klay’s contract is up and both sides have to decide next moves. It makes no sense to doll out anything other than a $10 million mid-level for him at this point. Even that might be too much and ironically, if this team can’t keep its cap spending down even further they’ll be restricted from making any mid-level offers. Woof.
Several young guys have performed well for the Warriors this season. Trayce Jackson-Davis bumped Kevon Looney at the center positon for starter time. He’ll be a solid contributor moving forward but doesn’t help significantly with the Warriors size issues at 6’9. Brandin Podziemski shot 45% from the field and 38.5% from 3. He added 5.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists while starting 28 games. Jonathan Kuminga finally showed up and shot almost 53% for the field. His three ball is unimpressive at 32% and he seems to have a strange fit in the offense. He’s also on an expiring deal. So is Moses Moody who saw more time and better production. Chris Paul and Andrew Wiggins are the obvious contracts to move, but what value they have and what Golden State can afford to take back are both further discussion points.
2024/2025 Projections Pre-draft:
Golden State Warriors – Play-In-Four teams on this list are in the West so more than one probably won’t make the playoffs, it pains everyone but Klay needs to move in order for Curry to have a chance
LA Clippers – Play-In – If PG moves on, which is rumored, and Harden leaves this team could tank
LA Lakers – ? – No clue what is going on with Bronny Jr but Lebron anywhere but LA year 40 is hard to picture, health an issue, JJ Reddick at coach and musical free agents keeps them in the news
Milwaukee Bucks – Playoffs – Giannis, Lillian, Middleton all stay competitive-defense/health an issue, offense isn’t
Phoenix Suns – Playoffs – Great talent prevents this team from bottoming out, Durant is still awesome