Welcome to a new annual event! The preseason NFL starting QB rankings! I feel pretty comfortable fitting the Qbs into specific Tiers this season. With Tom Brady gone we’re now officially past the days of vets like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Payton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, at the top of the league. A sub-30 crowd is fully locked in and position is very seems very fluid to me. When I compiled the list I was surprised how few QBs I’d trust to elevate an average roster to a Super Bowl. I’d make the cut after tier 3 right now, but I also think the biggest differences in talent are between Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3. It’s tougher being a top performer than settling as an average performer. I’m just ranking the presumed starting QBs or the QB that is presumed to make most of the starts for their franchise. With Kyle Murry out for an extended period, he isn’t on the list.

Tier 1 – Elite
1. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
2x Super Bowl Champ
2x Super Bowl MVP
2x NFL MVP
5x Pro Bowl
2x All Pro First Team
1x All Pro Second Team
2x NFL Leading TD Passer
1x NFL Passing Yards Leader
5 NFL records
2022-5,250yds, 41-12 TD-INT, 8.1 yds/attempt, 67.1%

2. Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals
1x Pro Bowl
1x NFL Comeback POTY
1x NFL Completion % Leader
2022-4,475yds, 35-12 TD-INT, 7.4 yds/att, 68.3%

3. Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills
2x Pro Bowl
1x All Pro Second Team
1x NFL Record
2022-4,283yds, 35-14 TD-INT, 7.6 yds/att, 63.3%

The three easiest QBs to rank with accolades, playoff appearances, and on-field play to support being the best three QB’s in the league. Burrow still hasn’t played in the league that long with only three full seasons under his belt. Josh Allen’s usage % is higher than any player in the league. As the primary ball carrier, redzone threat, and obviously QB, the Bills have to figure finding playmakers to alleviate his burden a priority. He could be moved into the two spot after several epic playoff performances already. It’s not awesome that Stefon Diggs appears to hold a grudge after last season’s post-season exit and hasn’t appeared at minicamp yet. Joe Burrow has clearly elevated play on the field with questions on the offensive line in previous seasons. Good-faith contract extension talks that allow enough cap space for the Bengals to resign Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins carries off-field leadership that can translation to on-field trust and chemistry. Burrow is building an offensive threat for the future. All three will get another two full seasons in before anyone turns 30. How often are the superstar QBs all this young? Subtracting Aaron Rodgers, eight of the top nine QBs on this list average out to 25.25 years old. Appreciate the window of time we’re in for these careers.

Tier 2 – Superstar
4. Aaron Rogers – New York Jets
1x Super Bowl Champ
1x Super Bowl MVP
4x MVP
4x All Pro First Team
1x All Pro Second Team
10x Pro Bowl
4x NFL Passing rating Leader
2x NFL Passing TD Leader
1x Completion % Leader
NFL 2010s All-Decade Team
2022-3,695yds, 26-12 TD-INT, 6.8 yds/att, 64.6%

5. Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
1x NFL OROTY
1x Pro Bowl
2022-4,739yds, 25-10 TD-INT, 6.8 yds/att, 68.2%
6. Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
1x MVP
1x All Pro First Team
2x Pro Bowl
1x NFL Passing TD Leader

While the top 3 on this list have proved they belong at the top and the temperament to go along with that sentiment, I have questions for the next three on this list. Aaron Rogers won MVPs in 2020 and 2021 yet his behavior and constant conflict with a Packers team for several seasons; a team that he CONTINUTED TO PLAY FOR up until now makes him inconsistent. It’s not an age thing. Teams were lining up for an aged Tom Brady and Payton Manning. It’s an Aaron thing and it translates to his on-field play if he isn’t having a good time.

The Chargers are like the University of Texas Longhorns. For 15 years they’ve had a top-10 preseason roster and every season they’re not a top team. Herbert was not coached well at Oregon in college, but the NFL has opened him up. The Herbert/Chargers combo is now 0-1 in the playoffs going into his 4^th year in the NFL. At some point you drag a banged up, poorly coach, inconsistent team to the playoffs and manage a win if you’re a future HOFer. Several of the top guys have done it already.

Lamar Jackson was open to the world for negotiation this past offseason and didn’t get many bites according to months of coverage. It’ll be a case study in future years. Are teams wise to pass up paying one of the top QBs in the league in hopes of building around a cheaper QB on a rookie deal? Do front offices (and the millions of fans) really believe Lamar is just a “system” QB? Isn’t everyone more comfortable with an offense built to their strengths? Why would a past MVP, still under 30 be any different? There are opinions on right and wrong here to be applied to team building principles, evaluating talent, maneuvering cap space, whether or not players should have agent representation and how these topics are discussing in relation to each other that actually don’t have to do with his on-field production, but that’s what we’re here to evaluate. Hopefully he stays healthy, like all the other starting QBs as injuries around the league have taken a toll the past couple seasons. Making the “Lamar is never healthy” argument a moot point. He’s got a new offensive coordinator in place this season.

Tier 3 – Stars-Trending Up
7. Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles
2x All Pro Second Team
1x Pro Bowl
2022-3,791yds, 22-6 TD-INT, 8 yd/att, 66.5%

8. Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
1x Pro Bowl
2022-4,113yds, 25-8 TD-INT, 7 yd/att, 66.3%

9.  Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins
1x Passing Rating Leader
2022-3,548yds, 25-8 TD-INT, 8.9 yd/att, 64.8%

Trevor Lawrence had to survive the Urban Meyer experience and showed progress under a competent coaching staff last season. If the pressure rate around him decreased his ability to push the ball downfield might unlock a new level. Let’s not forget that last offseason around this time Jalen Hurts conversation often revolved around this being a “prove-it” season. Hurts was at the bottom of the league most passing categories in 2021 (he did miss two games) and held a 16-9 TD-INT ratio. He lead all QBs in rushing yardage and TDs with 10 which made him a threat, but earned him the dreaded comparisons to Lamar as a non-passing threat. We’re finally past that point. Tua will be playing being a dodgy offensive line, again, which is cause for concern for his health. His throw time and pressure rates some of the worst in the NFL last season. With that said, he’ll be on one of the best rosters in the league, held a great red zone rate (behind Mahomes & Burrow) scoring rate and he pushed the ball down the field with his air yards-per-throw was a distance 2^nd in the NFL (barley behind only Jameis Winston) last season so he’s legitimately a top-10 QB when playing.

Tier 4 – Impactful Vets
10. Kirk Cousins – Vikings
4x Pro Bowl
1x NFL Completion % Leader
2022-4,547yds, 29-14 TD-INT, 7.1 yd/att, 65.9%

11. Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams
1x Suber Bowl Champ
1x NFL Comeback POTY
1x Pro Bowl
2022-2,087yds, 10-8 TD-INT, 6.9 yd/att, 68%

12. Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
2x Pro Bowl
2022-2,860yds, 23-15 TD-INT, 7.3 yds/att, 66.2%

For all the grief these three have received in their careers, they’ve been closer to the top performers in the NFL (with a huge step up between the few “elite” QBs any given season, this group hasn’t been near the peak of the position) than most of the league. All three have a clear cut #1 in CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Cooper Kupp. Stafford’s offseason surgery might be problematic and signify the end if he struggles this season on a roster with holes. He’s 36 in February. Cousins will be 35 in August and could have been replaced at several points in his career (as recently as 2021 when Kellen Mond was drafted in the 3^rd out of Texas A&M) but he’s playing the best ball of his career. Dak has been banged up, lead the league in picks in 22, and now has a new offensive coordinator. The stars just don’t align for what could be a fading career.

Tier 5 – Questionable Futures (aka “The Middle”)
13. Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks
1x Pro Bowl
1x NFL Comeback POTY
2022-4,283yds, 30-11 TD-INT, 7.5 yd/att, 69.8%

14. Jared Goff – Detroit Lions
3x Pro Bowl
2022-4,438yds, 29-7 TD-INT, 7.6 yd/att, 65.1%

15. Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns
3x Pro Bowl
1x NFL Passing Yards Leader
2022-1,102yds, 7-5 TD-INT, 6.5 yd/att, 58%

16. Russell Wilson – Denver Broncos
1x Super Bowl Winner
2x Second Team Pro Bowl
9x Pro Bowl
1x NFL Passing Yards Leader
1x NFL Passing TD Leader
2022-3,534yds, 16-11 TD-INT, 7.3 yd/att, 60.5%

17. Derek Carr – New Orleans Saints
4x Pro Bowl
2022-3,522yds, 24-14 TD-INT, 7 yds/att, 60.8%

18. Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans
1x Pro Bowl
1x NFL Comeback POTY
2022-2,536yds, 13-6 TD-INT, 7.8 yds/att, 65.2%

This tier had huge differences in performance last season and will moving forward. Geno Smith and Jared Geoff were phenomenal last season. Smith could put up great numbers with a great skill position group around him again this season, but he’s been around a long time and never showed signs of last season’s outburst. It might not be replicable. Geoff has been criticized more than praised during his career, but he’s always but in the top-half of NFL QBs, which is notable. The #2 passing attack won’t be needed again if the defense is better in Detroit.

Desaun Watson only played six games last season and was appalling. He had more time to throw that anyone in the league and couldn’t turn in positive production but he can’t be that awful. He was one of the most productive QBs in the league three years ago and he’s still young. Russell Wilson might get cut if Sean Payton can’t get him up to snuff. That would leave Denver in cap hell for two seasons still with dead cap space. The Broncos literally can’t do anything to clear his salary for two more years with or without him on the roster. Part of the issue has to be mental with a seemingly unwillingness to run up field or make throws last season. If he returns at even 50% of what he was the last Seattle season it would be leaps ahead of where was in 2023.

I’ve was a Derek Carr defender for several seasons (and 3 pro bowls) but he just flat-out wasn’t much better than an average QB last season. A functional organization and a rag-tag bunch of 2^nd year Chris Olave, suspended Alvin Kamara, and often broken Michael Thomas is still the best offensive situation he’s probably ever had. Ryan Tannehill has seen two QBs drafted to replace him the past 14 months, his receiving core shredded, Derrick Henry rode heavy (and fighting with the front office), and the offensive line turned into a rubik’s cube of lining up the right combination of guys.

Tier 6 – Young Guys (TBD)
19. Justin Fields – Chicago Bears
2022-2,242yds, 17-11 TD-INT, 7 yds/att, 60.4%

20. Daniel Jones – New York Giants
2022-3,205yds, 15-5 TD-INT, 6.8 yds/att, 67.2%

21. Brock Purdy – San Francisco 49ers
2022-1,374yds, 13-4 TD-INT, 8.1 yds/att, 67.1%

22. Kenny Pickett – Pittsburg Steelers
2022-2,404yds, 7-9 TD-INT, 6.2 yds/att, 63%

23. Mac Jones – New England Patriots
1x Pro Bowl
2022-2,997yds, 14-11 TD-INT, 6.8  yd/att, 65.2%

The Dolphins (Gase), Jags (Meyer), Jets (shit Gase again) can all speak to incompetent coaching recent history. Perhaps Chicago, in year 2 of Matt Eberflus, with a year to clear contracts and rebuild will see production. I’d be happy to shoot him up the rankings this time next season. 1,143 rushing yards place him 7^th IN THE LEAGUE and 2^nd most by a QB in NFL HISTORY. Imagine what he can do with real targets in Chase Claypool and DJ Moore running thought-out play concepts and two new offensive lineman on a group that gave up the most sacks last season.

NYG didn’t pick up Daniel’s 5^th year option last offseason making this year huge. They haven’t decided whether to throw money at him or use the franchise tag next and we still don’t know what we’re dealing with here. A guy with wheels that’s going to lose his job in a few seasons? (19-21) Or a guy with wheels that dragged a horrid WR group to the playoffs and is showing real All-Pro talent? (22) Darren Waller joins him this season.

Mike Tomlin stayed above .500 again in part thanks to Kenny Pickett and the….26^th ranked offense. Brock Purdy was awesome for seven games and seems to suffer from the injury bug that crept into every important player for the 49ers during Shanahan’s tenure. Mac Jones might have to fight off Bailey Zappe, which is wild. This is another team that added real offensive pieces for a young QB in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki to DeVante Parker and Hunter Henry. That still might be a B- skills group at best compared to the rest of the league.

Tier 7 – The Great(?) Unknowns
24. Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers
25. Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers
26. Desmond Ridder – Atlanta Falcons
27. Sam Howell – Washington Commanders
28. C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans
29. Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts

I’d be elated to move any of these guys up throughout the season. Rookie Bryce Young might be the smallest QB (possible shorter than Kyler Murry) since Doug Flutie to play pro ball and he looks so small behind the offensive line for the Panthers. Love, Ridder, and Howell have been in the league for a minute at least and will be familiar with procedure. It’s entirely possible that any of them could be benched if a better prospect on the roster emerges. Love is the best case for a player to improve and surprise. Phil Sims and Brett Kollmann are two of the NFL analysts who feel he has more tools than he’s shown so far. C.J. Stroud hasn’t locked up the starting spot yet and his lack of mobility last season at OSU was concerning. Richardson might be a horrid passer but Indy could change him into a passing fullback within the offense and make things interesting as his passing game is deconstructed and rebuilt from the ground up. Gardner Minshew will be the backup. He’ll also look to throw the ball downfield and move outside the pocket. How the Colts decide to operate offensively could be interesting if it isn’t disastrous this season.

Tier 8 – ….You’re still around?
30. Jimmy Garoppolo – Las Vegas Raiders
2x Super Bowl Winner (neither as a starter)
2022-2,437yds, 16-4 TD-INT, 7.9 yds/att, 67.2%
31. Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. Colt McCoy – Arizona Cardinals

LV may have waived Jimmy G but the time you’re reading this. They signed him knowing that his ankle injury could be more severe than originally thought. How injuries, a high turnover rate, and mediocre production will translate to a weak roster isn’t looking good. Veterans retiring, QB immaturity, poor coaching adjustments in-game, free agents leaving and draft picks not contributing to cover the losses, are all reasons why the Cards season is in the can already this season. Kyler Murry’s ACL injury will sideline him for possibly the entire season, but he’d probably slot in Tier 3 range otherwise. Colt McCoy has been surprisingly decent at manning the ship in his brief appearances 12 seasons, but the ship he’s steering this time is on fire and sinking. Baker Mayfield will be on field for his 4^th team in 20 months by the time week 1 rolls around. He will have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage to throw to so even with the salary cuts to purge the roster post-Brady he’ll move the ball if he has any juice.